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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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48 results for solvency

RL-CVaR model improves insurance reserving under economic stress.

problem Managing insurance reserve setting under claim development uncertainty and macroeconomic stress.
method Reinforcement Learning (PPO) with CVaR constraints, trained under regime-aware curriculum.
result RL-CVaR policy reduces solvency violations and tail-risk compared to classical methods.

This article presents a stochastic framework to quantify the biometric risk of an insurance portfolio in solvency regimes such as Solvency II or the Swiss Solvency Test (SST). The main difficulty in this context constitutes in the proper representation of long term risks in the profit-loss distribution over a one year …

2019-10-09abs ↗pdf ↗

In this article we consider the parameter risk in the context of internal modelling of the reserve risk under Solvency II. We discuss two opposed perspectives on parameter uncertainty and point out that standard methods of classical reserving focusing on the estimation error of claims reserves are in general not approp…

2016-12-09abs ↗pdf ↗

This article contains the first published example of a real economic balance sheet where the Solvency II ratio substantially depends on the seed selected for the random number generator (RNG) used. The theoretical background and the main quality criteria for RNGs are explained in detail. To serve as a gauge for RNGs, a…

2018-01-16abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper formalizes autodeleveraging as online learning, providing robustness results and algorithms for better performance.

problem Autodeleveraging as a mechanism to restore solvency in perpetual futures markets when liquidation and insurance buffers are insufficient.
method Formalizes autodeleveraging as online learning on a PNL-haircut domain, using an algorithm to recover solvency.
result The optimized algorithm achieves about 2.6% of an upper bound on regret, reducing overshoot to $3M.

Framework for realistic insurance liability valuation.

problem Economic realism in insurance liability valuation.
method Replication approach of no-arbitrage theory, considering capital and fulfillment conditions.
result Identifies conditions for market price recovery and extends production for insolvency.

Analyzes how financial network dependencies can lead to multiple equilibrium outcomes and optimal bailout strategies.

problem Multiple equilibrium outcomes in financial networks due to dependency cycles.
method Characterized necessary and sufficient conditions for bank solvency, and provided upper bounds on optimal bailout payments.
result Minimum bailout payments needed to ensure systemic solvency and prevent cascading defaults.

Study uses AI techniques to predict bank customer solvency.

problem Predicting the solvency of bank customers.
method Data preprocessing, CART decision tree method, SPSS tool.
result Model accuracy and precision of 71%, error rate of 29%.

Study assesses health plan risk measures for Solvency Capital Requirement.

problem Assessing risk measures for health plans to meet Solvency Capital Requirement.
method Three-part regression model with three GLMs for claim counts, episode allocation, and severity.
result Reduction in regression models compared to traditional methods.

Paper models demand and solvency for index insurance, combining traditional and measurable index-based coverage.

problem Reducing protection gaps for emerging risks.
method Develops a model for demand and solvency conditions, combining traditional and index-based insurance.
result Deduces a product that benefits from both traditional and index-based insurance approaches.

Modeling financial contagion through bank networks, revealing solvency correlations.

problem Understanding how financial shocks propagate through interconnected banks.
method Simulated financial network of 100 banks, randomly generated with varying link probabilities, and shocks applied to 15 banks.
result Ranges of probability values and banks' solvency are positively correlated.

Within the Own Risk and Solvency Assessment framework, the Solvency II directive introduces the need for insurance undertakings to have efficient tools enabling the companies to assess the continuous compliance with regulatory solvency requirements. Because of the great operational complexity resulting from each comple…

2013-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper optimizes dividend strategies for companies with assets and liabilities under solvency constraints.

problem Maximizing dividends while adhering to solvency requirements in the face of correlated asset and liability movements.
method Developed verification lemmas to show optimal barrier dividend strategies in two cases: with and without shareholder funding.
result Optimal dividend strategies are barrier-type, derived in closed form and illustrated.

Introduces a new system for modeling bank solvency contagion with heterogeneous impacts and exposures.

problem Modeling bank solvency contagion with asymmetric interactions and heterogeneous exposures.
method Develops a heterogeneous McKean-Vlasov system to characterize solvency contagion in interbank markets.
result Derives a unique solution for the system under certain conditions, resolving instability issues.

The paper proves ADL mechanisms face a trilemma and optimizes them for fairness, revenue, and exchange solvency.

problem The impossibility of a perpetual futures exchange achieving solvency, revenue, and fairness.
method Formal model of ADL, proving trilemma, and analyzing three ADL mechanisms.
result Optimized ADL mechanisms can reduce trader losses while maintaining exchange solvency.

Optimizes pension fund management under funding risks.

problem Managing DB pension fund under underfunded and overfunded conditions.
method Stochastic model with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck interest rate, geometric Brownian motion for benefits, and cash, bond, stock investments.
result Optimal wealth process, portfolio, and efficient frontier obtained under various tolerance levels for solvency risk.

The article proposes a method to make valid insurance claim predictions without relying on specific models.

problem Prediction of insurance claims using statistical models can be unreliable due to model misspecification, selection effects, and lack of finite-sample validity.
method The article employs conformal prediction, a machine learning strategy that is model-free and tuning-parameter-free, ensuring finite-sample validity.
result The proposed method guarantees valid predictions at a pre-assigned coverage probability level and performs well in insurance applications, including meeting Solvency II requirements.

As part of the new regulatory framework of Solvency II, introduced by the European Union, insurance companies are required to monitor their solvency by computing a key risk metric called the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The official description of the SCR is not rigorous and has lead researchers to develop their…

2016-10-06abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method for calculating ES from VaR under Solvency II.

problem The need for a more appropriate risk measure (ES) than VaR.
method Developed PELVE method for multiple insurers, analyzing existence, uniqueness, and expressions for different payoff distributions.
result The choice of method is crucial when payoffs are from different distribution families.

Optimizes bank capital structure under Basel III constraints, simplifying complex dynamics.

problem Optimizing risky investments, dividends, and capital structure under Basel III constraints.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, reducing dynamics to a one-dimensional process in leverage ratio.
result Simple policy: pay dividends at an upper barrier and recapitalize at the distress boundary.

Under Solvency II the computation of capital requirements is based on value at risk (V@R). V@R is a quantile-based risk measure and neglects extreme risks in the tail. V@R belongs to the family of distortion risk measures. A serious deficiency of V@R is that firms can hide their total downside risk in corporate network…

2017-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

New eco-systemic prudential policies aim to finance green companies, reducing systemic financial risk.

problem Insufficient financing for green companies despite available savings and monetary management.
method Reorient corporate accounting towards socio-environmental solvency, facilitating access with public guarantees.
result Green financing increases, reducing systemic financial risk and promoting less leveraged investments.

The aim of this paper is to introduce a method for computing the allocated Solvency II Capital Requirement (SCR) of each Risk which the company is exposed to, taking in account for the diversification effect among different risks. The method suggested is based on the Euler principle. We show that it has very suitable p…

2015-11-09abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper assesses VASPs' solvency using multiple data sources.

problem Insolvency risk in VASPs without systematic auditing.
method Cross-referencing cryptoasset wallets, balance sheets, and supervisory data.
result Inconsistent data between DLT transactions and balance sheets for some VASPs.

Paper develops a model to assess capital requirement for demographic risk using stochastic methods.

problem Quantifying capital requirement for demographic risk in life insurance contracts.
method Stochastic model extending local GAAP to Solvency II framework, proving market consistency.
result Model highlights main drivers of capital requirement evaluation, comparing to GAAP.

This paper optimizes insurance reinsurance design under solvency constraints.

problem Optimizing risk transfer from an insurance company to a reinsurer under solvency constraints.
method Martingale method to derive optimal reinsurance design maximizing terminal value of surplus.
result Optimal reinsurance designs include a combination of proportional and stop-loss protection.

This paper evaluates financial competitiveness of Indian real estate companies using entropy method.

problem Improving financial competitiveness of Indian real estate companies in a competitive market.
method Financial competitiveness evaluation index system using key financial ratios and a scoring system.
result Companies with high scores have strong profitability and operational capacity, while those with lower scores struggle with solvency and working capital.

In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919 and 1920, for which the period tables provided by the Human Mortality Database …

2018-03-01abs ↗pdf ↗

New risk measure improves creditor protection in financial regulation.

problem Current solvency requirements fail to control the size of recovery on creditors' claims.
method Developed Recovery Value at Risk (Recovery VaR) to control recovery on creditors' claims.
result Recovery VaR flexibly controls recovery on creditors' claims and integrates protection needs into management incentives.