A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper uses social signals to improve cryptocurrency price forecasting.
Framework detects fake news using weak social signals from multiple sources.
AI investors signal higher debt in ESG firms, boosting portfolio management.
Sentiment analysis from news and social media predicts forex market movements.
Adaptive social media event detection improves accuracy by 350%.
What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique possibility to measure socio-economic signals from such digital traces. Here, we foc…
Study uses LLMs to categorize financial tweets, revealing useful sentiment signals.
HERMES model predicts nonstationary fashion trends using social media data.
FinGPT uses LLMs for real-time market sentiment analysis.
Using a method rooted in information theory, we present results that have identified a large set of stocks for which social media can be informative regarding financial volatility. By clustering stocks based on the joint feature sets of social and financial variables, our research provides an important contribution by …
DASC combines social media and car sensors to improve disaster response.
We propose a friend recommendation system (an application of link prediction) using edge embeddings on social networks. Most real-world social networks are multi-graphs, where different kinds of relationships (e.g. chat, friendship) are possible between a pair of users. Existing network embedding techniques do not leve…
We investigate how simultaneously recorded long-range power-law correlated multi-variate signals cross-correlate. To this end we introduce a two-component ARFIMA stochastic process and a two-component FIARCH process to generate coupled fractal signals with long-range power-law correlations which are at the same time lo…
Paper detects social media influencers affecting financial markets.
Scientific disciplines, such as Behavioural Psychology, Anthropology and recently Social Signal Processing are concerned with the systematic exploration of human behaviour. A typical work-flow includes the manual annotation (also called coding) of social signals in multi-modal corpora of considerable size. For the invo…
This paper considers a statistical signal processing problem involving agent based models of financial markets which at a micro-level are driven by socially aware and risk- averse trading agents. These agents trade (buy or sell) stocks by exploiting information about the decisions of previous agents (social learning) v…
Toward enabling next-generation robots capable of socially intelligent interaction with humans, we present a of interactions in a social environment of multiple agents and multiple groups. The Multiagent Group Perception and Interaction (MGpi) network is a deep neural network that predi…
Formulates LGFO to measure fair ML systems using legal signals.
Kernel analysis reveals rumor truth from diffusion patterns alone.
The availability of data on digital traces is growing to unprecedented sizes, but inferring actionable knowledge from large-scale data is far from being trivial. This is especially important for computational finance, where digital traces of human behavior offer a great potential to drive trading strategies. We contrib…
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
We introduce an adversarial method for producing high-recall explanations of neural text classifier decisions. Building on an existing architecture for extractive explanations via hard attention, we add an adversarial layer which scans the residual of the attention for remaining predictive signal. Motivated by the impo…
Study enhances cryptocurrency sentiment analysis using TikTok and Twitter data.
This paper reconstructs complex graph signals using kernel methods on manifolds.
Graph-based methods for signal processing have shown promise for the analysis of data exhibiting irregular structure, such as those found in social, transportation, and sensor networks. Yet, though these systems are often dynamic, state-of-the-art methods for signal processing on graphs ignore the dimension of time, tr…
This paper studies two important signal processing aspects of equilibrium behavior in non-cooperative games arising in social networks, namely, reinforcement learning and detection of equilibrium play. The first part of the paper presents a reinforcement learning (adaptive filtering) algorithm that facilitates learning…
Contagions such as the spread of popular news stories, or infectious diseases, propagate in cascades over dynamic networks with unobservable topologies. However, "social signals" such as product purchase time, or blog entry timestamps are measurable, and implicitly depend on the underlying topology, making it possible …
Gaussian Process model improves blood glucose prediction using contextual data.
In this paper, we analyze Twitter signals as a medium for user sentiment to predict the price fluctuations of a small-cap alternative cryptocurrency called \emph{ZClassic}. We extracted tweets on an hourly basis for a period of 3.5 weeks, classifying each tweet as positive, neutral, or negative. We then compiled these …
The Internet and, in particular, Online Social Networks have changed the way that terrorist and extremist groups can influence and radicalise individuals. Recent reports show that the mode of operation of these groups starts by exposing a wide audience to extremist material online, before migrating them to less open on…
Machine learning detects regime shifts in online game-experiments with high accuracy.
The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing res…
The ability to track and monitor relevant and important news in real-time is of crucial interest in multiple industrial sectors. In this work, we focus on the set of cryptocurrency news, which recently became of emerging interest to the general and financial audience. In order to track relevant news in real-time, we (i…
The paper infers multiple graphs from stationary signals on them.
A number of applications in engineering, social sciences, physics, and biology involve inference over networks. In this context, graph signals are widely encountered as descriptors of vertex attributes or features in graph-structured data. Estimating such signals in all vertices given noisy observations of their values…
A vast amount of textual web streams is influenced by events or phenomena emerging in the real world. The social web forms an excellent modern paradigm, where unstructured user generated content is published on a regular basis and in most occasions is freely distributed. The present Ph.D. Thesis deals with the problem …
Study on detecting and recovering hidden dense cycles in random graphs.
It is ubiquitous in natural and social sciences that two variables, recorded temporally or spatially in a complex system, are cross-correlated and possess multifractal features. We propose a new method called multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) to investigate the multifractal behaviors in the pow…
Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share Exchange over time. Our model relaxes that heroic assumption of one unique "true val…
Cyber attacks are growing in frequency and severity. Over the past year alone we have witnessed massive data breaches that stole personal information of millions of people and wide-scale ransomware attacks that paralyzed critical infrastructure of several countries. Combating the rising cyber threat calls for a multi-p…
Consider a social network where only a few nodes (agents) have meaningful interactions in the sense that the conditional dependency graph over node attribute variables (behaviors) is sparse. A company that can only observe the interactions between its own customers will generally not be able to accurately estimate its …
Event detection has been one of the most important research topics in social media analysis. Most of the traditional approaches detect events based on fixed temporal and spatial resolutions, while in reality events of different scales usually occur simultaneously, namely, they span different intervals in time and space…
Algorithmic fairness, and in particular the fairness of scoring and classification algorithms, has become a topic of increasing social concern and has recently witnessed an explosion of research in theoretical computer science, machine learning, statistics, the social sciences, and law. Much of the literature considers…
A guide to using low-pass graph filters for network data.
Develops method for learning signed graphs from smooth signals.
Random forests are a powerful method for non-parametric regression, but are limited in their ability to fit smooth signals, and can show poor predictive performance in the presence of strong, smooth effects. Taking the perspective of random forests as an adaptive kernel method, we pair the forest kernel with a local li…
We first pursue the study of how hierarchy provides a well-adapted tool for the analysis of change. Then, using a time sequence-constrained hierarchical clustering, we develop the practical aspects of a new approach to wavelet regression. This provides a new way to link hierarchical relationships in a multivariate time…
SIMPLE-RC method tests group membership profiles in large networks with weak signals.