Events are happening in real-world and real-time, which can be planned and organized occasions involving multiple people and objects. Social media platforms publish a lot of text messages containing public events with comprehensive topics. However, mining social events is challenging due to the heterogeneous event elem…
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48 results for “social events”
Predicting event attendance using social influence from social networks.
problem Predicting people's participation in real-world events.
method Modeling social influence, using non-geotagged posts and social group structures, applying graph embedding techniques, and training a neural network.
result The proposed classifier achieves 89% accuracy on the VFestival dataset, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
The combination of large open data sources with machine learning approaches presents a potentially powerful way to predict events such as protest or social unrest. However, accounting for uncertainty in such models, particularly when using diverse, unstructured datasets such as social media, is essential to guarantee t…
We show social events can be accurately predicted, but often undesirably.
problem The predictability of social events and its implications.
method Recent ideas from performative prediction and outcome indistinguishability.
result Social events can be efficiently predicted accurately, but often undesirably.
Event detection has long been the domain of physical sensors operating in a static dataset assumption. The prevalence of social media and web access has led to the emergence of social, or human sensors who report on events globally. This warrants development of event detectors that can take advantage of the truly dense…
Study shows social media impacts shareholder returns on ESG risks.
problem Investor sentiment and public opinion on ESG risks.
method Event study design using social media data.
result Statistically significant reduction in abnormal returns after ESG-risk events.
Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or Internet memes shared via social media. Neuron spikes stimulate or inhibit spike…
Companies and financial investors are paying increasing attention to social consciousness in developing their corporate strategies and making investment decisions to support a sustainable economy for the future. Public discussion on incidents and events -- controversies -- of companies can provide valuable insights on …
PHASE dataset simulates complex social interactions in physical environments.
problem Lack of datasets for evaluating physically grounded perception of complex social interactions.
method Created PHASE dataset of 2D animations with procedural generation and physics engine.
result SIMPLE model outperforms neural networks in recognizing complex social interactions.
Develops platforms to analyze social media data for human behavior and emotions.
problem Understanding human behavior and emotions from social media data.
method Self-structuring incremental machine learning, event detection, natural language processing.
result Captured salient topics and events from social media data, validated against news.
This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point processes. We then introduce the Hawkes process, its event intensity function, as…
Event detection has been one of the most important research topics in social media analysis. Most of the traditional approaches detect events based on fixed temporal and spatial resolutions, while in reality events of different scales usually occur simultaneously, namely, they span different intervals in time and space…
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
problem Standard event time models ignore the distinction between event occurrence probability and predicted time.
method Introduces a conditional event time model using a neural network with a binary stochastic layer.
result Shows superior event occurrence and timing predictions on various datasets.
The problem of estimating event truths from conflicting agent opinions in a social network is investigated. An autoencoder learns the complex relationships between event truths, agent reliabilities and agent observations. A Bayesian network model is proposed to guide the learning process by modeling the relationship of…
The echo chamber effect resounds on financial markets: a social media alert system for meme stocksq-fin.TR
Paper detects social media influencers affecting financial markets.
problem Impact of social media influencers on financial markets.
method Developed an early warning system for detecting suspicious social network activity.
result Discrepancy in meme and non-meme stocks' reactions to social networks.
A vast amount of textual web streams is influenced by events or phenomena emerging in the real world. The social web forms an excellent modern paradigm, where unstructured user generated content is published on a regular basis and in most occasions is freely distributed. The present Ph.D. Thesis deals with the problem …
DASC combines social media and car sensors to improve disaster response.
problem Inconsistent reliability and inconsistent availability of human sensors.
method Hybrid social-car sensing system using game theory, feedback control, and MDP.
result DASC improves detection accuracy and efficiency in disaster response.
ICA model detects misinformation during high impact events like COVID-19.
problem Detecting misinformation during high impact events like the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Data-driven solution based on ICA model.
result ICA model achieves knowledge discovery and detection of misinformation jointly.
We investigate the problem of truth discovery based on opinions from multiple agents who may be unreliable or biased. We consider the case where agents' reliabilities or biases are correlated if they belong to the same community, which defines a group of agents with similar opinions regarding a particular event. An age…
Study uses LLMs to categorize financial tweets, revealing useful sentiment signals.
problem Discovering meaningful sentiment signals from unstructured financial social media data.
method Leveraged LLMs to automatically label financial tweets with event categories and aligned with returns.
result Certain event labels consistently yield negative alpha, with statistically significant Sharpe ratios and information coefficients.
Integrating Crowdsourcing and Active Learning for Classification of Work-Life Events from Tweetscs.CL
Crowdsourcing and active learning reduce manual annotation in social media event classification.
problem Manual annotation is time-consuming and resource-intensive in social media event classification.
method Crowdsourcing pipeline combined with active learning strategies.
result Active learning strategies help reduce the number of tweets needed for classification.
Proposes a test for shared information between time series and events.
problem Detecting extreme events in time series data.
method Non-parametric statistical test using multiple two-sample testing at increasing lags.
result Outperforms or matches related tests on various datasets.
Study quantifies events leading to Terra project failure in 2022.
problem Terra project's fragility and dependency on Anchor protocol.
method Systematic review of social media news, hourly and transaction data analysis, network science techniques.
result Identified trigger events and analyzed dependency structures using network science.
Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the availability of large-scale data from social networks and sensor networks offers an…
Study finds Twitter activity correlates with stock volatility but not sentiment.
problem Understanding the impact of social media on stock market dynamics.
method Collected and analyzed tweets from Twitter and Reddit, examining their sentiment and correlation with stock volatility.
result Twitter activity correlates with stock volatility but not sentiment.
Fast algorithm for analyzing huge social networks.
problem Analyzing dynamic social networks with large numbers of actors.
method Hierarchical strategy for latent space inference with spline processes and machine learning optimization.
result Can fit millions of nodes in a few minutes.
Exact results on power-law distributions in systems with resets.
problem Understanding power-law distributions in systems with resets.
method Exact mathematical analysis of multiplicative processes with resets.
result Power-law distributions are built up over time and their moments behave quantitatively determined by parameters.
Barcelona in the face of globalization, how to think of the city through the organization and evaluation of major events?physics.soc-ph
Barcelona evaluates major events for economic and social impact.
problem Evaluating the economic and social impact of major events in Barcelona.
method Analyzes the economic and social dimensions of Barcelona's major events from 1888 to 2004.
result Develops a rational argument for communicating the economic benefits of major events.
Reconstructing network connectivity from the collective dynamics of a system typically requires access to its complete continuous-time evolution although these are often experimentally inaccessible. Here we propose a theory for revealing physical connectivity of networked systems only from the event time series their i…
Since the events of the Arab Spring, there has been increased interest in using social media to anticipate social unrest. While efforts have been made toward automated unrest prediction, we focus on filtering the vast volume of tweets to identify tweets relevant to unrest, which can be provided to downstream users for …
Context-dependent self-exciting point processes: models, methods, and risk bounds in high dimensionsstat.ML
This paper models how features influence event triggers in high-dimensional networks.
problem Estimating context-dependent networks in high-dimensional marked point processes.
method Leveraging compositional time series and regularization methods, the paper considers autoregressive multinomial and logistic-normal models for network estimation.
result The logistic-normal model leads to a convex negative log-likelihood objective and captures dependence across categories.
REST framework predicts stock trends by considering stock-specific and related-stock events.
problem Predicting stock trends using event information from news, social media, and discussion boards.
method REST framework addresses two main shortcomings of existing event-driven methods: stock-specific event influence and related-stock event influence.
result REST framework achieves higher investment returns compared to baselines.
Twitter has provided a great opportunity for public libraries to disseminate information for a variety of purposes. Twitter data have been applied in different domains such as health, politics, and history. There are thousands of public libraries in the US, but no study has yet investigated the content of their social …
Domestic Violence (DV) is considered as big social issue and there exists a strong relationship between DV and health impacts of the public. Existing research studies have focused on social media to track and analyse real world events like emerging trends, natural disasters, user sentiment analysis, political opinions,…
This paper explores neural models to improve modeling of Hawkes process intensity functions.
problem Traditional Hawkes process intensity function's parametrized kernel function biases future event predictions.
method Uses neural models to model the kernel function of Hawkes process intensity function.
result Neural models can better capture future event characteristics using past events data.
Multivariate Bernoulli autoregressive (BAR) processes model time series of events in which the likelihood of current events is determined by the times and locations of past events. These processes can be used to model nonlinear dynamical systems corresponding to criminal activity, responses of patients to different med…
Proposes a new framework to disentangle event influences in MTPP.
problem Underexplored how individual events influence overall dynamics over time.
method Decoupled MTPP framework using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs).
result Significantly improves performance on real-life datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Microstructure and Manipulation: Quantifying Pump-and-Dump Dynamics in Cryptocurrency Marketsq-fin.TR
Study analyzes cryptocurrency pump-and-dump dynamics using minute-level data.
problem Identifying and quantifying insider trading in cryptocurrency markets.
method Algorithmic identification of insider volume spikes, conservative profit bounds calculation, social-media verification.
result Median returns above 100%, upper-quartile returns exceeding 2000% for insider profits.
Large volume of networked streaming event data are becoming increasingly available in a wide variety of applications, such as social network analysis, Internet traffic monitoring and healthcare analytics. Streaming event data are discrete observation occurred in continuous time, and the precise time interval between tw…
Framework detects fake news using weak social signals from multiple sources.
problem Lack of annotated data for early fake news detection.
method Jointly uses weak social signals and clean data to train deep neural networks in a meta-learning framework.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art baselines for early fake news detection.
Social Media Would Not Lie: Prediction of the 2016 Taiwan Election via Online Heterogeneous Datacs.SI
The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing res…
Study examines cyber losses across sectors, finds high severity and frequency.
problem Understanding the nature of cyber losses and their variability across sectors.
method Analysis of a leading industry dataset of cyber events, focusing on frequency and severity.
result Cyber risks are heavy-tailed, with high probability of extreme losses.
TransformerLSR models longitudinal, recurrent, and survival data jointly.
problem Joint modeling of longitudinal measurements, recurrent events, and survival data with dependencies.
method Transformer-based deep learning framework integrating deep temporal point processes and latent structure representation.
result TransformerLSR effectively models all three components simultaneously, demonstrating necessity and effectiveness through simulations and real-world data.
THP model captures complex dependencies in event sequences efficiently.
problem Inability of existing models to capture long-term dependencies in event sequences.
method Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model using self-attention mechanism.
result THP outperforms existing models in likelihood and event prediction accuracy.
Data of practical interest - such as personal records, transaction logs, and medical histories - are sequential collections of events relevant to a particular source entity. Recent studies have attempted to link sequences that represent a common entity across data sets to allow more comprehensive statistical analyses a…
Social media plays a major role during and after major natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes, large-scale fires, etc.), as people ``on the ground'' post useful information on what is actually happening. Given the large amounts of posts, a major challenge is identifying the information that is useful and actionable. Emerg…
Novel framework for spatio-temporal event analysis using Hawkes processes.
problem Inference of dynamics in spatio-temporal event sequences.
method Randomized Fourier feature-based transformations and gradient descent.
result Improved fitting capability in synthetic and real datasets.
Event Detection in Noisy Streaming Data with Combination of Corroborative and Probabilistic Sourcescs.LG
Global physical event detection has traditionally relied on dense coverage of physical sensors around the world; while this is an expensive undertaking, there have not been alternatives until recently. The ubiquity of social networks and human sensors in the field provides a tremendous amount of real-time, live data ab…