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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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471114 · Mar 202019922001200920172026
48 results for smart predict-then-optimize

Paper proposes SPO paradigm for better portfolio optimization in real markets.

problem Real-world trading frictions and constraints affect portfolio optimization quality.
method SPO paradigm with decision-focused training using surrogate loss and linear predictors.
result Decision-focused training improves risk-adjusted performance and robustness.

This paper improves risk bounds and calibration for smart predict-then-optimize method.

problem Improving risk bounds and calibration for smart predict-then-optimize method.
method Develops risk bounds and uniform calibration results for the SPO+ loss relative to the SPO loss.
result Empirical minimizer of the SPO+ loss achieves low excess true risk with high probability.

Decision trees improve decision-making by optimizing predictions of unknown parameters.

problem Optimizing decisions based on predicted unknown parameters.
method SPO Trees (SPOTs) for training decision trees under the SPO loss function.
result SPOTs provide higher quality decisions and significantly lower model complexity compared to other machine learning approaches.

Many real-world analytics problems involve two significant challenges: prediction and optimization. Due to the typically complex nature of each challenge, the standard paradigm is predict-then-optimize. By and large, machine learning tools are intended to minimize prediction error and do not account for how the predict…

2017-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

A new autoregressive SPO method improves decision-making for dependent data.

problem Improving decision-making for dependent data in stochastic optimization.
method An autoregressive Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO) method for time series data.
result Generalization bounds and uniform calibration results for the SPO loss in autoregressive models.

New loss function handles uncertain constraints in CSLO problems.

problem Handling uncertain inequality constraints in CSLO with machine learning predictions.
method Introduces SPO-RC loss and SPO-RC+ surrogate, trains on truncated datasets, corrects bias.
result SPO-RC+ effectively manages constraint uncertainty and improves performance.

Develops active learning method for linear optimization with margin-based criterion.

problem Optimizing decisions in linear optimization problems with limited labeled data.
method Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO) loss and margin-based active learning algorithm.
result Algorithm achieves significantly fewer labels than naive supervised learning, especially for minimizing SPO loss.

The predict-then-optimize framework is fundamental in many practical settings: predict the unknown parameters of an optimization problem, and then solve the problem using the predicted values of the parameters. A natural loss function in this environment is to consider the cost of the decisions induced by the predicted…

2019-05-27abs ↗pdf ↗

This study explains and mitigates inflated returns and turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.

problem Inflated returns and excessive turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
method KKT-based interpretation of portfolio decisions as ranking over adjusted scores, empirical evaluation of stabilization mechanisms.
result Realistic output constraints and portfolio-level turnover control improve SPO-based strategies.

New approach optimizes decisions based on uncertainty in predictions.

problem Mismatch between prediction accuracy and decision loss in sequential design.
method Directional uncertainty-guided approach to sequential experimental design.
result Directional uncertainty-based design stops earlier and performs better.

DVA framework attributes value of predictive models to features, configurations, and interactions.

problem Lack of explanation for how predictive models influence operational decisions.
method Shapley-based cooperative game theory applied to predict-then-optimize systems.
result DVA can guide targeted interventions to align model beliefs with operational performance.

Proposes CPO framework for robust decision-making with explainable uncertainty regions.

problem Overly conservative uncertainty regions in data-driven optimization lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Conformal-Predict-Then-Optimize (CPO) framework using conditional generative models and visual summaries.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and explainability in decision-making.

Recently, a wide range of smart devices are deployed in a variety of environments to improve the quality of human life. One of the important IoT-based applications is smart homes for healthcare, especially for elders. IoT-based smart homes enable elders' health to be properly monitored and taken care of. However, elder…

2018-08-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved security of smart contracts by classifying them into four categories.

problem Detecting and classifying vulnerabilities in smart contracts efficiently.
method Used AWD-LSTM for multi-class classification, addressing class imbalance.
result Achieved a weighted average Fbeta score of 90.0%.

Study develops smart contract framework for procurement under demand variability.

problem Operational and economic implications of smart contract adoption under moderate uncertainty.
method Multi-supplier model with endogenized adoption costs, supplier readiness, and inventory penalties; analytical and numerical results.
result Partial adoption strategies support moderate demand variability, while excessive digital investment reduces profitability.

A new method streamlines digital payment programming using smart contracts.

problem High costs and security challenges in programming smart contracts for digital payments.
method Transforming digital currencies into token streams and using configurable templates to generate specialized smart contracts.
result Reduces payment programming costs and enhances security, self-enforcement, adaptability, and controllability.

In this paper, we propose a game theoretical adversarial intervention detection mechanism for reliable smart road signs. A future trend in intelligent transportation systems is ``smart road signs" that incorporate smart codes (e.g., visible at infrared) on their surface to provide more detailed information to smart veh…

2019-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

SMART is an open source web application designed to help data scientists and research teams efficiently build labeled training data sets for supervised machine learning tasks. SMART provides users with an intuitive interface for creating labeled data sets, supports active learning to help reduce the required amount of …

2018-12-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper assesses the market value of sharing privacy-protected smart meter data.

problem Value of sharing privacy-protected smart meter data between consumers and load serving entities.
method Discounted differential privacy model, ANN-based load forecasting, optimal procurement problem.
result Significant value in sharing smart meter data while retaining individual consumer privacy.

Smart Close-out Netting aims to automate close-out netting processes.

problem Inefficiencies in close-out netting processes for financial institutions.
method Standardisation and automation of legal and regulatory processes using a data-driven framework and controlled natural language.
result Standardisation and automation can improve close-out netting processes for prudentially regulated financial institutions.

Smart reply systems have been developed for various messaging platforms. In this paper, we introduce Uber's smart reply system: one-click-chat (OCC), which is a key enhanced feature on top of the Uber in-app chat system. It enables driver-partners to quickly respond to rider messages using smart replies. The smart repl…

2019-07-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep learning enhances smart fish farming through automated feature extraction.

problem Challenges in obtaining labeled data limit DL applications in aquaculture.
method Application of DL techniques in aquaculture, including live fish identification, species classification, and feeding decision-making.
result Deep learning's ability to automatically extract features is a significant contribution.

SMART combines decision trees and MARS for better regression modeling.

problem High variance in decision trees for continuous relationships, poor performance in MARS for discontinuities.
method SMART uses a decision tree to identify subsets with distinct continuous relationships, then applies MARS to fit these relationships independently.
result SMART improves regression performance over state-of-the-art methods in capturing discontinuities and continuous relationships.

The paper tackles ride-hailing fleet repositioning with a calibrated demand approach.

problem Repositioning idle supply before future demand is observed in ride-hailing.
method A predict-then-optimize approach using calibrated demand regimes, a similarity gate, and spatial queue-regret decomposition.
result The spatial gate reduces mean wait time to 82.3s compared to 85.3s for a hand-tuned similarity gate and 85.8s for a distributional-only baseline.

We propose a new model of minority game with so-called smart agents such that the standard deviation and the total loss in this model reach the theoretical minimum values in the limit of long time. The smart agents use trail and error method to make a choice but bring global optimization to the system, which suggests t…

2004-06-15abs ↗pdf ↗

In this note we describe the application of existing smart contract technologies with the aim to construct a new digital representation of a financial derivative contract. We compare several existing DLT based technologies. We provide a detailed description of two separate prototypes which are able to be executed on a …

2019-02-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Smart beta, also known as strategic beta or factor investing, is the idea of selecting an investment portfolio in a simple rule-based manner that systematically captures market inefficiencies, thereby enhancing risk-adjusted returns above capitalization-weighted benchmarks. We explore the idea of applying a smart strat…

2018-08-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a method to learn adaptive ambiguity sets for robust optimization.

problem Misspecification in distributionally robust optimization (DRO).
method Learned predictive ambiguity sets (LPAS) using deep contextual models.
result Significantly improves portfolio optimization performance compared to baselines.

This paper proposes a joint energy and data market to handle uncertainty in energy procurement.

problem Handling uncertainty in energy markets through data markets.
method Modeling a day-ahead retailer energy procurement problem with uncertain demand, integrating forecasting and optimisation, and using differential privacy.
result The value of joint energy and data clearing is highlighted through numerical case studies.

FedRule uses graph neural networks to recommend rules for smart homes without centralizing data.

problem Manual rule setup for smart devices is inefficient and privacy-compromising.
method FedRule constructs user-specific graphs for rule recommendation, using federated learning to protect privacy.
result FedRule achieves comparable performance to centralized methods and outperforms others.

SMART transfers knowledge across related studies for multi-task learning.

problem Deterioration of multi-task learning performance with small target sample size.
method SMART assumes spectral similarity between source and target models, estimating target coefficients through structured regularization.
result SMART achieves near-minimax error rates, improving estimation accuracy and robustness to negative transfer.

A recurring problem faced when training neural networks is that there is typically not enough data to maximize the generalization capability of deep neural networks(DNN). There are many techniques to address this, including data augmentation, dropout, and transfer learning. In this paper, we introduce an additional met…

2017-03-24abs ↗pdf ↗