A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Predicting unobserved bifurcations in time series with unsupervised parameter extraction.
New algorithm for non-stationary bandits with slow drifts.
We study the non-stationary stochastic multiarmed bandit (MAB) problem and propose two generic algorithms, namely, the limited memory deterministic sequencing of exploration and exploitation (LM-DSEE) and the Sliding-Window Upper Confidence Bound# (SW-UCB#). We rigorously analyze these algorithms in abruptly-changing a…
A new framework for sparse regression models with slow variations.
We present a loss function for neural networks that encompasses an idea of trivial versus non-trivial predictions, such that the network jointly determines its own prediction goals and learns to satisfy them. This permits the network to choose sub-sets of a problem which are most amenable to its abilities to focus on s…
In this paper, we study the portfolio optimization problem with general utility functions and when the return and volatility of underlying asset are slowly varying. An asymptotic optimal strategy is provided within a specific class of admissible controls under this problem setup. Specifically, we first establish a rigo…
New method infers causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
Slow feature analysis (SFA) is a method for extracting slowly varying driving forces from quickly varying nonstationary time series. We show here that it is possible for SFA to detect a component which is even slower than the driving force itself (e.g. the envelope of a modulated sine wave). It is shown that it depends…
Slow feature analysis (SFA) is a method for extracting slowly varying features from a quickly varying multidimensional signal. An open source Matlab-implementation sfa-tk makes SFA easily useable. We show here that under certain circumstances, namely when the covariance matrix of the nonlinearly expanded data does not …
We consider a variant of the classic multi-armed bandit problem where the expected reward of each arm is a function of an unknown parameter. The arms are divided into different groups, each of which has a common parameter. Therefore, when the player selects an arm at each time slot, information of other arms in the sam…
Fractional stochastic volatility models have been widely used to capture the non-Markovian structure revealed from financial time series of realized volatility. On the other hand, empirical studies have identified scales in stock price volatility: both fast-time scale on the order of days and slow-scale on the order of…
We study the asymptotic growth of the eigenvalues of the Laplace-Beltrami operator on singular Riemannian manifolds, where all geometrical invariants appearing in classical spectral asymptotics are unbounded, and the total volume can be infinite. Under suitable assumptions on the curvature blow-up, we show how the sing…
We consider a stochastic linear bandit model in which the available actions correspond to arbitrary context vectors whose associated rewards follow a non-stationary linear regression model. In this setting, the unknown regression parameter is allowed to vary in time. To address this problem, we propose D-LinUCB, a nove…
Given samples from a population of individuals belonging to different types with unknown proportions, how do we estimate the probability of discovering a new type at the -th draw? This is a classical problem in statistics, commonly referred to as the missing mass estimation problem. Recent results by Ohannes…
The study shows how geometric Weyl bulk-density exponent rigidifies spectral encodings in O-regularly varying classes.
We propose the point process model as the Poissonian-like stochastic sequence with slowly diffusing mean rate and adjust the parameters of the model to the empirical data of trading activity for 26 stocks traded on NYSE. The proposed scaled stochastic differential equation provides the universal description of the trad…
A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of variable-width basis functions, and the parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method…
Paper develops methods for statistical inference in SGD with infinite variance.
Many recently trained neural networks employ large numbers of parameters to achieve good performance. One may intuitively use the number of parameters required as a rough gauge of the difficulty of a problem. But how accurate are such notions? How many parameters are really needed? In this paper we attempt to answer th…
Study on slow convergence in geometric variational problems.
In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead of using two deterministic bounds, the uncertain volatility fluctuates between …
New method tracks time-varying parameters in data.
We study warped compactifications of string/M theory with the help of effective potentials, continuing previous work of the last two authors and Michael R. Douglas presented in arXiv:1206.1885. The dynamics of the conformal factor of the internal metric, which is responsible for instabilities in these constructions, is…
We prove the global non-linear stability, without symmetry assumptions, of slowly rotating charged black holes in de Sitter spacetimes in the context of the initial value problem for the Einstein-Maxwell equations: If one perturbs the initial data of a slowly rotating Kerr-Newman-de Sitter (KNdS) black hole, then in a …
This report first provides a brief overview of a number of supervised learning algorithms for regression tasks. Among those are neural networks, regression trees, and the recently introduced Nexting. Nexting has been presented in the context of reinforcement learning where it was used to predict a large number of signa…
Unique global solutions found for specific initial data.
For common people, in contrast to brokers, bankers, and those who play on rising and falling prices of stocks, the stock market law is based on the simple fact that the depositors aim for financial profit at any given concrete stage. The common depositor cannot cause any significant variations in prices. This concept s…
Effective risk control must make a tradeoff between the microprudential risk of exogenous shocks to individual institutions and the macroprudential risks caused by their systemic interactions. We investigate a simple dynamical model for understanding this tradeoff, consisting of a bank with a leverage target and an unl…
Unitary recurrent neural networks (URNNs) have been proposed as a method to overcome the vanishing and exploding gradient problem in modeling data with long-term dependencies. A basic question is how restrictive is the unitary constraint on the possible input-output mappings of such a network? This work shows that for …
In this paper we will try to assess the multifractality displayed by the high-frequency returns of Madrid's Stock Exchange IBEX35 index. A Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis shows that this index has a wide singularity spectrum which is most likely caused by its long memory. Our findings also show that this lo…
This paper presents a new class of gradient methods for distributed machine learning that adaptively skip the gradient calculations to learn with reduced communication and computation. Simple rules are designed to detect slowly-varying gradients and, therefore, trigger the reuse of outdated gradients. The resultant gra…
In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market originally proposed in [1]. The model takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian motion model. It is formally equivalent to a model describing the stochastic dyn…
Time-varying parameters are shown to be ridge regressions, simplifying computations and tuning.
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatility of an underlying price process may have correlations that decay slowly under certain market conditions. In this paper, the volatility is modeled as a stationary process with long-range correlation properties in order to capture such a situation, and we consider Europ…
Bayesian method for dynamic correlation matrices improves accuracy and responsiveness.
Estimates time-varying parameters from two OLS estimates.
This paper describes a novel approach to change-point detection when the observed high-dimensional data may have missing elements. The performance of classical methods for change-point detection typically scales poorly with the dimensionality of the data, so that a large number of observations are collected after the t…
Rough stochastic volatility models have attracted a lot of attentions recently, in particular for the linear option pricing problem. In this paper, starting with power utilities, we propose to use a martingale distortion representation of the optimal value function for the nonlinear asset allocation problem in a (non-M…
Let M be a closed orientable 3-manifold with a negatively curved Riemannian metric. Let {M_i} be a collection of finite regular covers with degree d_i. (1) If the Heegaard genus of M_i grows more slowly than the square root of d_i, then M_i has positive first Betti number for all sufficiently large i. (2) The strong He…
A new method estimates time-varying parameters in earth system models using offline and online data assimilation.
Proposes a new uncertain volatility model with worst-case scenario analysis.
This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are assumed to follow parsimonious random walks, where parsimony stems from the ass…
Paper efficiently infers differential parameters in time-varying models using time score matching.
This paper studies the portfolio optimization problem when the investor's utility is general and the return and volatility of the risky asset are fast mean-reverting, which are important to capture the fast-time scale in the modeling of stock price volatility. Motivated by the heuristic derivation in [J.-P. Fouque, R. …
We consider Kerr spacetimes with parameters a and M such that |a|<< M, Kerr-Newman spacetimes with parameters |Q|<< M, |a|<< M, and more generally, stationary axisymmetric black hole exterior spacetimes which are sufficiently close to a Schwarzschild metric with parameter M>0, with appropriate geometric assumptions on …
Generates coherent 3D scenes from monocular videos without supervision.
Latent Noise Injection improves synthetic data generation for privacy and statistical alignment.
We consider the scenario where the parameters of a probabilistic model are expected to vary over time. We construct a novel prior distribution that promotes sparsity and adapts the strength of correlation between parameters at successive timesteps, based on the data. We derive approximate variational inference procedur…