A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New algorithm for non-stationary bandits with slow drifts.
We study the non-stationary stochastic multiarmed bandit (MAB) problem and propose two generic algorithms, namely, the limited memory deterministic sequencing of exploration and exploitation (LM-DSEE) and the Sliding-Window Upper Confidence Bound# (SW-UCB#). We rigorously analyze these algorithms in abruptly-changing a…
Predicting unobserved bifurcations in time series with unsupervised parameter extraction.
In this paper, we study the portfolio optimization problem with general utility functions and when the return and volatility of underlying asset are slowly varying. An asymptotic optimal strategy is provided within a specific class of admissible controls under this problem setup. Specifically, we first establish a rigo…
New method infers causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
We study the asymptotic growth of the eigenvalues of the Laplace-Beltrami operator on singular Riemannian manifolds, where all geometrical invariants appearing in classical spectral asymptotics are unbounded, and the total volume can be infinite. Under suitable assumptions on the curvature blow-up, we show how the sing…
Slow feature analysis (SFA) is a method for extracting slowly varying driving forces from quickly varying nonstationary time series. We show here that it is possible for SFA to detect a component which is even slower than the driving force itself (e.g. the envelope of a modulated sine wave). It is shown that it depends…
We present a loss function for neural networks that encompasses an idea of trivial versus non-trivial predictions, such that the network jointly determines its own prediction goals and learns to satisfy them. This permits the network to choose sub-sets of a problem which are most amenable to its abilities to focus on s…
The study shows how geometric Weyl bulk-density exponent rigidifies spectral encodings in O-regularly varying classes.
A new framework for sparse regression models with slow variations.
Slow feature analysis (SFA) is a method for extracting slowly varying features from a quickly varying multidimensional signal. An open source Matlab-implementation sfa-tk makes SFA easily useable. We show here that under certain circumstances, namely when the covariance matrix of the nonlinearly expanded data does not …
Fractional stochastic volatility models have been widely used to capture the non-Markovian structure revealed from financial time series of realized volatility. On the other hand, empirical studies have identified scales in stock price volatility: both fast-time scale on the order of days and slow-scale on the order of…
Study on slow convergence in geometric variational problems.
In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead of using two deterministic bounds, the uncertain volatility fluctuates between …
We study warped compactifications of string/M theory with the help of effective potentials, continuing previous work of the last two authors and Michael R. Douglas presented in arXiv:1206.1885. The dynamics of the conformal factor of the internal metric, which is responsible for instabilities in these constructions, is…
Given samples from a population of individuals belonging to different types with unknown proportions, how do we estimate the probability of discovering a new type at the -th draw? This is a classical problem in statistics, commonly referred to as the missing mass estimation problem. Recent results by Ohannes…
This report first provides a brief overview of a number of supervised learning algorithms for regression tasks. Among those are neural networks, regression trees, and the recently introduced Nexting. Nexting has been presented in the context of reinforcement learning where it was used to predict a large number of signa…
We consider a stochastic linear bandit model in which the available actions correspond to arbitrary context vectors whose associated rewards follow a non-stationary linear regression model. In this setting, the unknown regression parameter is allowed to vary in time. To address this problem, we propose D-LinUCB, a nove…
Unique global solutions found for specific initial data.
For common people, in contrast to brokers, bankers, and those who play on rising and falling prices of stocks, the stock market law is based on the simple fact that the depositors aim for financial profit at any given concrete stage. The common depositor cannot cause any significant variations in prices. This concept s…
Unitary recurrent neural networks (URNNs) have been proposed as a method to overcome the vanishing and exploding gradient problem in modeling data with long-term dependencies. A basic question is how restrictive is the unitary constraint on the possible input-output mappings of such a network? This work shows that for …
In this paper we will try to assess the multifractality displayed by the high-frequency returns of Madrid's Stock Exchange IBEX35 index. A Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis shows that this index has a wide singularity spectrum which is most likely caused by its long memory. Our findings also show that this lo…
This paper presents a new class of gradient methods for distributed machine learning that adaptively skip the gradient calculations to learn with reduced communication and computation. Simple rules are designed to detect slowly-varying gradients and, therefore, trigger the reuse of outdated gradients. The resultant gra…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatility of an underlying price process may have correlations that decay slowly under certain market conditions. In this paper, the volatility is modeled as a stationary process with long-range correlation properties in order to capture such a situation, and we consider Europ…
This paper describes a novel approach to change-point detection when the observed high-dimensional data may have missing elements. The performance of classical methods for change-point detection typically scales poorly with the dimensionality of the data, so that a large number of observations are collected after the t…
Rough stochastic volatility models have attracted a lot of attentions recently, in particular for the linear option pricing problem. In this paper, starting with power utilities, we propose to use a martingale distortion representation of the optimal value function for the nonlinear asset allocation problem in a (non-M…
Let M be a closed orientable 3-manifold with a negatively curved Riemannian metric. Let {M_i} be a collection of finite regular covers with degree d_i. (1) If the Heegaard genus of M_i grows more slowly than the square root of d_i, then M_i has positive first Betti number for all sufficiently large i. (2) The strong He…
Proposes a new uncertain volatility model with worst-case scenario analysis.
A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of variable-width basis functions, and the parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method…
This paper studies the portfolio optimization problem when the investor's utility is general and the return and volatility of the risky asset are fast mean-reverting, which are important to capture the fast-time scale in the modeling of stock price volatility. Motivated by the heuristic derivation in [J.-P. Fouque, R. …
Generates coherent 3D scenes from monocular videos without supervision.
We consider a variant of the classic multi-armed bandit problem where the expected reward of each arm is a function of an unknown parameter. The arms are divided into different groups, each of which has a common parameter. Therefore, when the player selects an arm at each time slot, information of other arms in the sam…
CHMC improves HMC efficiency for multimodal distributions.
Dynamic robust PCA refers to the dynamic (time-varying) extension of robust PCA (RPCA). It assumes that the true (uncorrupted) data lies in a low-dimensional subspace that can change with time, albeit slowly. The goal is to track this changing subspace over time in the presence of sparse outliers. We develop and study …
Latent-state environments with long horizons, such as those faced by recommender systems, pose significant challenges for reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we identify and analyze several key hurdles for RL in such environments, including belief state error and small action advantage. We develop a general prin…
In this paper, we consider same-day delivery with vehicles and drones. Customers make delivery requests over the course of the day, and the dispatcher dynamically dispatches vehicles and drones to deliver the goods to customers before their delivery deadline. Vehicles can deliver multiple packages in one route but trav…
We present a modified version of the non parametric Hawkes kernel estimation procedure studied in arXiv:1401.0903 that is adapted to slowly decreasing kernels. We show on numerical simulations involving a reasonable number of events that this method allows us to estimate faithfully a power-law decreasing kernel over at…
New algorithm borrows future randomness to stabilize model-free control.
Study gluing event horizons of Minkowski and Schwarzschild spacetimes.
Truncated backpropagation through time (TBPTT) is a popular method for learning in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) that saves computation and memory at the cost of bias by truncating backpropagation after a fixed number of lags. In practice, choosing the optimal truncation length is difficult: TBPTT will not converge …
We prove the global non-linear stability, without symmetry assumptions, of slowly rotating charged black holes in de Sitter spacetimes in the context of the initial value problem for the Einstein-Maxwell equations: If one perturbs the initial data of a slowly rotating Kerr-Newman-de Sitter (KNdS) black hole, then in a …
This work focuses on dynamic regret of online convex optimization that compares the performance of online learning to a clairvoyant who knows the sequence of loss functions in advance and hence selects the minimizer of the loss function at each step. By assuming that the clairvoyant moves slowly (i.e., the minimizers c…
This research examines how the error rate of nearest neighbor classifiers varies with dataset size.
Robust ASR model removes fast-changing features to resist attacks.
DSI measures dataset separability for neural networks.
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with dilated filters such as the Wavenet or the Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) have shown good results in a variety of sequence modelling tasks. However, efficiently modelling long-term dependencies in these sequences is still challenging. Although the receptive field of these…
We characterize the rate of convergence of a converging volume-normalized Yamabe flow in terms of Morse theoretic properties of the limiting metric. If the limiting metric is an integrable critical point for the Yamabe functional (for example, this holds when the critical point is non-degenerate), then we show that the…
We introduce a new multi-dimensional nonlinear embedding -- Piecewise Flat Embedding (PFE) -- for image segmentation. Based on the theory of sparse signal recovery, piecewise flat embedding with diverse channels attempts to recover a piecewise constant image representation with sparse region boundaries and sparse clust…