Tests Sharpe ratio for skill vs luck in asset management.
problem Accuracy of Sharpe ratio in measuring skill vs luck.
method Statistical tests to assess the significance of Sharpe ratios.
result Tests reveal the statistical significance of Sharpe ratios and their impact of auto-correlation.
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
problem Analyzing patterns of wins and losses in games and social hierarchies.
method Generalized probabilistic models incorporating luck and depth of competition.
result Social competition tends to be deeper with many distinct levels, but there is often a chance of upset victories.
Risk and uncertainty will always be a matter of experience, luck, skills, and modelling. Leverage is another concept, which is critical for the investor decisions and results. Adaptive skills and quantitative probabilistic methods need to be used in successful management of risk, uncertainty and leverage. The author ex…
Employers actively look for talents having not only specific hard skills but also various soft skills. To analyze the soft skill demands on the job market, it is important to be able to detect soft skill phrases from job advertisements automatically. However, a naive matching of soft skill phrases can lead to false pos…
We review recent numerical results on the role of talent and luck in getting success by means of a schematic agent-based model. In general the role of luck is found to be very relevant in order to get success, while talent is necessary but not sufficient. Funding strategies to improve the success of the most talented p…
Investment challenge study finds luck and strategy equally important.
problem The role of luck and strategic considerations in M6 investment challenge performance.
method Introduced a stylized model to derive and analyze a portfolio strategy.
result Improving chances of winning without attaining abnormal returns possible.
Study shows torsion homology growth vanishes for certain free-by-cyclic groups.
problem Understanding torsion homology growth in free-by-cyclic groups.
method Analyzing polynomially growing monodromy and showing vanishing homology torsion.
result Integral torsion equals ℓ2-torsion for these groups, verifying a conjecture. The paper proves the Singer conjecture for aspherical complex surfaces and refines Gromov's inequality.
problem Proving the Singer conjecture and refining Gromov's inequality for aspherical complex surfaces.
method Proof of the Singer conjecture for aspherical complex surfaces with residually finite fundamental group, and refinement of Gromov's inequality for non-residually finite surfaces.
result Proof of the Singer conjecture for aspherical complex surfaces with residually finite fundamental group.
These short lecture notes provide a brief introduction to the field of homology growth. They are composed out of two lectures, which I have given at the Borel seminar 2017 in Les Diablerets. We give a proof of Lück's approximation theorem, discuss generalizations and mention some related open problems. Then we discuss …
Algorithm calculates L2-Euler characteristic for complex spaces.
problem Computing the twisted L2-Euler characteristic for complex spaces. method Uses Oki's matrix expansion algorithm to indirectly evaluate the Dieudonné determinant.
result Truncated algorithm produces good results in various complex spaces.
ReSkill reconciles RL skill creation with policy optimization.
problem RL policies lack reusable strategies across tasks.
method Integrates skill creation into RL loop with three mechanisms.
result Consistently outperforms existing methods, especially on unseen tasks.
Hierarchical MARL learns complementary skills for team coordination.
problem Creating intelligent agents that coordinate like human sports teams.
method Two-level hierarchical MARL with unsupervised skill discovery.
result Emergence of useful and complementary skills in team games.
We announce new results concerning the asymptotic behavior of the Betti numbers of higher rank locally symmetric spaces as their volumes tend to infinity. Our main theorem is a uniform version of the Lück Approximation Theorem \cite{luck}, which is much stronger than the linear upper bounds on Betti numbers given by Gr…
We show that Lück's conjecture on torsion growth in homology implies that two 3-manifolds have equal volume if the fundamental groups have the same set of finite quotients.
Robotics learns new skills faster by reusing past movements.
problem Learning new motor skills is time-consuming and requires exploration of a large space of motor configurations.
method Combines probabilistic movement primitives with relative entropy policy search for skill initialization and adaptation.
result Quality of learned skills improves and the number of required iterations to learn a new task can be reduced by more than 60%.
Bayesian nonparametrics enables dynamic skill discovery from expert data.
problem Fixed K for offline skill discovery in reinforcement learning.
method Variational inference, continuous relaxations, Bayesian nonparametrics.
result Nonparametric model with dynamically-changing number of options.
Paper learns skill distributions from game outcomes, proving minimax optimality.
problem Learning skill distributions from noisy pairwise game outcomes.
method Proposes a simple algorithm using kernel density estimation and minimax techniques.
result Near-optimal minimax mean squared error scaling for skill density estimation.
We present a novel solution to the problem of simulation-to-real transfer, which builds on recent advances in robot skill decomposition. Rather than focusing on minimizing the simulation-reality gap, we learn a set of diverse policies that are parameterized in a way that makes them easily reusable. This diversity and p…
MCP learns reusable skills for complex tasks by combining simple ones.
problem Learning complex tasks with many skills requires impractical amounts of data.
method Factorizes skills into primitives that can be combined multiplicatively.
result MCP can learn and reuse skills for novel tasks from pre-training.
We introduce the Adaptive Skills, Adaptive Partitions (ASAP) framework that (1) learns skills (i.e., temporally extended actions or options) as well as (2) where to apply them. We believe that both (1) and (2) are necessary for a truly general skill learning framework, which is a key building block needed to scale up t…
Deep reinforcement learning has demonstrated increasing capabilities for continuous control problems, including agents that can move with skill and agility through their environment. An open problem in this setting is that of developing good strategies for integrating or merging policies for multiple skills, where each…
The aim of this work is to create systematic trading strategies built upon several financial crisis indicators based on the spectral properties of market dynamics. Within the limitations of our framework and data, we will demonstrate that our systematic trading strategies are able to make money, not as a result of pure…
DAS3H optimizes skill-based spaced repetition schedules.
problem Optimizing adaptive and personalized spaced repetition schedules for skill-based learning.
method Developed a new student learning and forgetting model (DAS3H) that considers memory decay and multiple skills.
result DAS3H outperforms other models on real-world educational datasets.
The paper explains how language models acquire complex skills through scaling laws and statistical analysis.
problem Understanding how language models acquire new skills as their size and training data increase.
method Statistical framework and mathematical analysis of scaling laws.
result Language models can learn complex skills efficiently due to a strong inductive bias.
Study shows Elo models fail to accurately measure transitive strength in competitive games.
problem Elo models fail to correctly identify the transitive component in real-world competitive games.
method Investigated the challenge of identifying the transitive component in games, proposed an extension of the Elo score.
result Disc ranking system assigns two scores: skill and consistency.
Convolutional neural networks improve surgical skill evaluation.
problem Manual feedback from senior surgeons is laborious, expensive, and subjective.
method Fully convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for classifying and regressing surgical skills.
result Deep neural networks achieve competitive performance on JIGSAWS dataset.
Researchers study how skills are learned in neural networks using physics principles.
problem Understanding how skills are sequentially learned in neural networks.
method Abstract and simplify the problem using physics principles, proposing three models: Geometry, Resource, and Domino.
result Models reveal insights into neural scaling laws, learning dynamics, and the benefits of modularity.
HiPPO adapts skills and higher-level policies together for better transfer in hierarchical RL.
problem Sub-optimality in skill transfer when lower-level skills are fixed.
method HiPPO: a novel hierarchical policy gradient method that trains all levels of the hierarchy jointly.
result Improved robustness of skills to environment changes through training time-abstractions.
The paper examines skill estimation and variance under model misspecification in IRT.
problem Underestimation and overestimation of skills when non-compensatory model is misspecified as compensatory.
method Theoretical approach to analyze underestimation and overestimation of skills and variance.
result Overestimation of skills occurs around the origin and asymptotic variance differs under model misspecification.
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
problem Improving subseasonal temperature and precipitation forecasting accuracy.
method Combines dynamical forecasts with machine learning-based bias correction.
result Significant improvement in temperature and precipitation forecasting skills.
Introduces LDM to estimate machine learning algorithm capacity.
problem Estimating the performance of supervised learning algorithms.
method Characterizes algorithm flexibility using the diversity of possible outputs.
result LDM provides valuable insight into algorithm prediction behavior.
Paper proposes a method to compose task-agnostic skills for solving new problems.
problem Learning task-specific policies for solving new problems.
method Deep reinforcement learning-based skill transfer and composition method.
result Method transfers skills to new problem settings and solves challenging environments with high data efficiency.
DSE learns transferable skills across changing dynamics and goals.
problem Learning transferable skills across different reinforcement learning tasks.
method Variational inference for multi-task reinforcement learning with shared and task-specific latent spaces.
result Policies can generalize to unseen dynamics and goals conditions.
Simulation-to-real transfer is an important strategy for making reinforcement learning practical with real robots. Successful sim-to-real transfer systems have difficulty producing policies which generalize across tasks, despite training for thousands of hours equivalent real robot time. To address this shortcoming, we…
A planning approach learns skills from interactions, balancing exploration and exploitation.
problem Learning robust high-level skills in noisy environments with unknown pre-conditions.
method Formulates skills as high-level policies, learns plans via bandit problems, balances exploration and exploitation.
result A planner capable of learning robust high-level skills in high-dimensional state spaces.
DADS discovers skills with predictable outcomes from unlabeled data.
problem Learning accurate models for complex dynamical systems is difficult and often doesn't generalize well.
method Dynamics-Aware Discovery of Skills (DADS) combines model-based and model-free learning.
result DADS discovers infinitely many behaviors in high-dimensional state-spaces.
Integrates skills and world models for efficient task solving and transfer.
problem Quickly solve new tasks in complex environments using reusable knowledge.
method Leverages partial amortization for fast adaptation and online skill planning.
result Improved sample efficiency in single tasks and transfer between tasks.
New algorithm trains neural nets on simple skills to learn complex tasks faster.
problem Learning complex tasks through simple imitation.
method Train neural networks on simple, easy-to-learn skills to accelerate learning of complex, hard-to-learn tasks.
result Consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baseline in training speed and performance.
EDL discovers state-covering skills without relying on task rewards.
problem Discovering skills in reinforcement learning without a task-oriented reward function.
method EDL optimizes information-theoretic objective using different machinery to address coverage problem.
result EDL discovers state-covering skills more effectively than existing methods.
Sloth predicts LLM performance using latent skills across families.
problem Variations in benchmark performance due to differences in training configurations and data processing across model families.
method Sloth uses publicly available benchmark data and assumes LLM performance is driven by latent skills influenced by model size and training tokens. It exploits correlations across benchmarks to provide accurate predictions.
result Sloth predicts LLM performance accurately and offers insights into scaling behaviors for complex tasks.
An online labor platform faces an online learning problem in matching workers with jobs and using the performance on these jobs to create better future matches. This learning problem is complicated by the rise of complex tasks on these platforms, such as web development and product design, that require a team of worker…
The paper presents a method for personalized exercise recommendations that improves learner skill gain.
problem Adapting to individual needs in large, diverse groups of learners in digital environments.
method Contextual Thompson Sampling to select exercises that advance learner skill.
result The method recommends exercises associated with greater skill improvement and adapts to learner differences.
Paper tackles skill transfer in RL for morphologically different agents.
problem Transfer skills between morphologically different reinforcement learning agents.
method Proposes a paired variational encoder-decoder model (PVED) for subspace learning.
result Demonstrates improved skill transfer efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
New methods for skill rating in sports using state-space models.
problem Improving skill rating in competitive sports.
method State-space models, sequential Monte Carlo, discrete hidden Markov models.
result Advantages of state-space models for time-varying player skills.
We introduce a method for constructing skills capable of solving tasks drawn from a distribution of parameterized reinforcement learning problems. The method draws example tasks from a distribution of interest and uses the corresponding learned policies to estimate the topology of the lower-dimensional piecewise-smooth…
Simon's knot genus problem solved with 3-manifold groups.
problem If epimorphism exists between knot groups, knot genus of one is greater than or equal to the other.
method Proved conjecture linking 3-manifold groups and Thurston norms, showed locally indicable groups are Lewin groups.
result Existence of epimorphism between knot groups implies knot genus inequality.
For robots to coexist with humans in a social world like ours, it is crucial that they possess human-like social interaction skills. Programming a robot to possess such skills is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a Multimodal Deep Q-Network (MDQN) to enable a robot to learn human-like interaction skills thr…
New method boosts skill learning by encouraging optimistic exploration.
problem Intrinsic reward for exploration is inherently pessimistic.
method Derive an information gain auxiliary objective involving an ensemble of discriminators and rewarding policy disagreement.
result Improves skill learning in grid worlds and Atari games.