New method tests independence with single nonstationary time series.
problem Testing independence in nonstationary nonlinear time series.
method Time-varying nonlinear regression, local long-run covariance estimation, strong Gaussian approximation.
result First framework for conditional independence testing with a single realization of a nonstationary nonlinear process.
MegazordNet combines stats and ML for better financial time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting financial time series is challenging due to its chaotic nature.
method MegazordNet integrates statistical features with a deep learning model.
result MegazordNet outperforms single statistical and machine learning methods in S&P 500 stock price prediction.
New method uses shared attention for multi-task time series forecasting.
problem Insufficient training instances in single-task forecasting.
method Self-attention based sharing schemes across multiple tasks.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art single-task forecasting baselines and RNN-based multi-task forecasting method.
Proposes a method to predict time series data using scale information.
problem Sequential data exhibits different behavior at different scales.
method Scale-based inference using k-nearest neighbors and sequential prediction. result Asymptotically, the algorithm produces the best prediction error.
ProFITi model forecasts irregular time series with missing values using conditional flows.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values.
method ProFITi model uses conditional normalizing flows and invertible layers to learn joint distributions conditioned on past observations and queried channels and times.
result ProFITi model provides 4 times higher likelihood than the previous best model.
Adapts randomization for single unit time-series data for optimal treatment.
problem Statistical methods for precision medicine in single unit time-series data.
method Adaptive sequential design, nonparametric model, double robust structure, efficient influence function.
result Valid inference for mean target parameter based on single sample.
Moirai-MoE improves time series forecasting by automatically specializing tokens without human-defined frequency.
problem Unified training on time series data remains challenging due to heterogeneity and non-stationarity.
method Uses sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers to automatically specialize tokens for diverse time series patterns.
result Moirai-MoE outperforms existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios.
A Python package solves source duplication in single channel LVMs using spectral regularisation.
problem Source duplication in LVMs hampers their practical use in single channel applications.
method Spectral regularisation term added to address source duplication issue.
result Spectral regularisation framework enables easier investigation and utilisation of LVMs.
LLMs show potential for predicting financial returns, contrary to common belief.
problem Common belief that LLMs are unsuitable for financial market returns prediction.
method Chronos model from Ansari et al. (2024) tested on largest American single stocks.
result LLMs can predict time series that are nearly random, generating alpha.
Quantum circuits predict volatility dynamics preserving asymmetry.
problem Modeling volatility time series with asymmetry.
method Single-qubit quantum circuit learning (QCL) applied to synthetic data generated by Rational GARCH model.
result QCL-based predictions preserve negative return-volatility correlation and anti-persistent behavior.
Recent work has developed Bayesian methods for the automatic statistical analysis and description of single time series as well as of homogeneous sets of time series data. We extend prior work to create an interpretable kernel embedding for heterogeneous time series. Our method adds practically no computational cost co…
In this research the technology of complex Markov chains is applied to predict financial time series. The main distinction of complex or high-order Markov Chains and simple first-order ones is the existing of aftereffect or memory. The technology proposes prediction with the hierarchy of time discretization intervals a…
Generating forecasts for time series with multiple seasonal cycles is an important use-case for many industries nowadays. Accounting for the multi-seasonal patterns becomes necessary to generate more accurate and meaningful forecasts in these contexts. In this paper, we propose Long Short-Term Memory Multi-Seasonal Net…
AR model forecasts partially observed dynamical time series by estimating evolution function and imputing missing variables.
problem Forecasting dynamical time series with missing variables.
method Autoregressive with slack time series (ARS) model.
result ARS model forecasts future time series with time-invariant and linear assumptions.
CoDATS improves DA on time series data with weak supervision.
problem Improving domain adaptation for time series data with limited labeled data.
method CoDATS model for Time Series data, DA-WS method with weak supervision.
result Significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art methods.
Time series are series of values ordered by time. This kind of data can be found in many real world settings. Classifying time series is a difficult task and an active area of research. This paper investigates the use of transfer learning in Deep Neural Networks and a 2D representation of time series known as Recurrenc…
Most methods for time series classification that attain state-of-the-art accuracy have high computational complexity, requiring significant training time even for smaller datasets, and are intractable for larger datasets. Additionally, many existing methods focus on a single type of feature such as shape or frequency. …
While ubiquitous, textual sources of information such as company reports, social media posts, etc. are hardly included in prediction algorithms for time series, despite the relevant information they may contain. In this work, openly accessible daily weather reports from France and the United-Kingdom are leveraged to pr…
The Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) extracted dynamic modes are the non-orthogonal eigenvectors of the matrix that best approximates the one-step temporal evolution of the multivariate samples. In the context of dynamical system analysis, the extracted dynamic modes are a generalization of global stability modes. We a…
Consider the case that one observes a single time-series, where at each time t one observes a data record O(t) involving treatment nodes A(t), possible covariates L(t) and an outcome node Y(t). The data record at time t carries information for an (potentially causal) effect of the treatment A(t) on the outcome Y(t), in…
This paper extends hypergraph construction to multivariate time series using signature transforms.
problem Constructing hypergraphs from collections of multivariate time series.
method Leveraging signature transforms to introduce controlled randomness and robustness.
result Validated on synthetic datasets, the method enhances robustness in hypergraph construction.
A new SVM method for predicting time series labels.
problem Learning to predict labels from high-dimensional time series data.
method Extended SVM concept to continuous time series data, formulated as a convex optimization problem.
result Empirical results show the algorithm's effectiveness for analyzing long-term multivariate data.
A new method for time-series data provides guaranteed coverage and adapts to non-exchangeable data.
problem Guaranteed coverage for time-series data prediction intervals.
method Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR) using quantile random forest.
result SCDR achieves guaranteed asymptotic coverage and outperforms existing methods in simulations.
A new framework detects anomalies in multivariate time-series data.
problem Lack of explicit relationships between time-series data.
method Graph Attention Network framework that considers temporal and feature dependencies.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art models on three real-world datasets.
Method summarizes and predicts time series data for COVID-19 cases and deaths.
problem Summarizing and predicting time series data for multiple related time series.
method Hierarchical algorithm generating shapelets for centroids, nearest neighbor search for labeling, dynamic time warping for non-uniform lengths.
result Predictive model for individual time series based on aggregated statistics.
In the recent years Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have demonstrated significant progress in generating authentic looking data. In this work we introduce our simple method to exploit the advancements in well established image-based GANs to synthesise single channel time series data. We implement Wasserstein GAN…
Paper proposes a robust framework for detecting multiple periodic components in time series.
problem Detecting multiple periodic components in time series with interlaced patterns and external noise.
method Applying maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform to isolate periodic components, ranking them by wavelet variance, and detecting single periodicity robustly.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms other methods for both single and multiple periodicity detection.
Paper uses Time Series Transformer for bank stability prediction.
problem Predicting bank stability using complex financial data.
method Time Series Transformer model with self-attention mechanism.
result Time Series Transformer model outperforms other models in MSE and MAE.
A framework for forecasting high-dimensional time-series data using clustering.
problem Forecasting high-dimensional time-series data with intra-cluster similarity.
method Three-stage framework: univariate time series parameter estimation, clustering, multivariate time series parameter computation.
result Framework achieves state-of-the-art results on benchmark datasets, sometimes outperforming deep-learning-based approaches.
GP model for time series forecasting with priors.
problem Automatic selection of optimal kernels and reliable estimation of hyperparameters.
method Fixed composition of kernels, automatic relevance determination (ARD), empirical Bayes priors.
result GP model is more accurate than state-of-the-art models.
Kernel-based tests detect dependencies in multivariate time series, including stationary and non-stationary data.
problem Detecting dependencies in multivariate time series data, especially non-stationary data.
method Kernel-based statistical tests of joint independence, extending dHSIC to handle both stationary and non-stationary processes.
result Robustly uncovers significant higher-order dependencies in synthetic and real-world data.
Market-based portfolio variance measures risks using trade data.
problem Measuring portfolio risks using traditional methods ignores trade volume randomness.
method Uses time series of trades with securities and portfolio to assess variance.
result Portfolio variance can be decomposed into securities' contributions, accounting for trade volume randomness.
Develops a new model for network estimation from multi-variate data.
problem Network estimation from multi-variate point process or time series data.
method Semi-parametric approach based on the monotone single-index multi-variate autoregressive model (SIMAM).
result Achieves optimal rates of convergence and superior performance in prediction and network estimation.
GANs generate samples from time series data.
problem Resampling dependent time series data.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for time series resampling.
result GANs can outperform traditional bootstrapping methods in time series resampling.
Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a general and analytically tractable way of modeling complex time-varying, nonparametric functions. The Automatic Bayesian Covariance Discovery (ABCD) system constructs natural-language description of time-series data by treating unknown time-series data nonparametrically using GP with …
New model for time series classification from single example.
problem Classifying time series patterns from limited data.
method Developed a Hidden semi-Markov Model with variable state duration.
result Different representations of state duration have distinct strengths and weaknesses.
Topological attention improves forecasting of univariate time series.
problem Forecasting univariate time series using local topological features.
method Topological attention mechanism that integrates local topological properties into forecasting models.
result Topological attention leads to state-of-the-art performance on the M4 benchmark.
Time series analysis is used to understand and predict dynamic processes, including evolving demands in business, weather, markets, and biological rhythms. Exponential smoothing is used in all these domains to obtain simple interpretable models of time series and to forecast future values. Despite its popularity, expon…
Dynamic Time Warping improves regression accuracy on spectroscopy data.
problem Improving regression accuracy on spectroscopy data with DTW when data is across multiple wavelengths.
method Illustrated DTW's effectiveness on spectroscopy time-series data, showing its benefits in improving regression accuracy when only a single wavelength is considered. DTW combined with k-Nearest Neighbour reveals similarities and differences at the time-series level.
result DTW improves regression accuracy on spectroscopy data, especially when considering a single wavelength.
New algorithms benchmarked for multivariate time series classification.
problem Comparing algorithms for multivariate time series classification.
method Review and comparison of recent MTSC algorithms using the UEA archive.
result HIVE-COTE ensemble is most accurate for MTSC, but dynamic time warping is competitive.
Generative model uses random convolutional features to create financial time series.
problem Generating realistic financial time series with limited data and avoiding overfitting.
method Train generators by matching random convolutional features of real and generated time series, using SOCK (SOft Competing Kernels) feature map.
result Generators trained with random SOCK features outperform baselines across various financial datasets.
Motion Code models time series dynamics with sparse approximations.
problem Challenges in time series classification and forecasting on noisy data.
method Motion Code views time series as stochastic processes, assigning unique signatures to distinct dynamics.
result Motion Code outperforms benchmarks in noisy datasets, including real-world Parkinson's disease tracking.
TSMB handles time delays in multivariate time series data.
problem Varying time delays in multivariate time series data complicate predictions.
method Time Series Model Bootstrap (TSMB) framework for nonparametric time delay estimation.
result TSMB improves model performance in dynamic data environments.
Paper develops multivariate time series similarity and distance measures.
problem Compensating for misalignments in multivariate time series data.
method Adapted Independent and Dependent DTW strategies to seven elastic similarity and distance measures.
result Each measure achieves highest accuracy on at least one dataset, supporting their value.
Introduces a new benchmark for time series extrinsic regression.
problem Predicting a single continuous value from univariate or multivariate time series, not necessarily related to the predictor.
method Developed a new benchmarking archive for time series extrinsic regression.
result Initial benchmarking of existing models on the new TSER datasets.
Amortized Causal Discovery learns to infer causal graphs from time-series data, improving performance.
problem Inference of causal graphs from time-series data is inefficient due to fitting new models for each sample.
method Proposes Amortized Causal Discovery, a variational model that leverages shared dynamics across samples with different causal graphs.
result Significant improvements in causal discovery performance demonstrated experimentally.
The last decade has seen a flurry of research on all-pairs-similarity-search (or, self-join) for text, DNA, and a handful of other datatypes, and these systems have been applied to many diverse data mining problems. Surprisingly, however, little progress has been made on addressing this problem for time series subseque…
Paper speeds up large foundation models for time series data.
problem Resource-intensive foundation models limit accessibility.
method Dimensionality reduction techniques, including PCA and neural network adapters.
result Up to 10x speedup and 4.5x more datasets fit on a single GPU.