Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

183366548731 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for single sample path

New analysis of annealing paths in sampling and estimation.

problem Sampling from complex distributions and estimating normalization constants.
method Extending known results on Bregman divergence to quasi-arithmetic means under monotonic embedding.
result Analogous result for quasi-arithmetic means, highlighting the interplay between means, parametric families, and divergence functionals.

Estimates mixing coefficients of geometrically ergodic Markov processes from a single sample path.

problem Estimating mixing coefficients of geometrically ergodic Markov processes.
method Proposes methods to estimate β\beta-mixing coefficients from a single sample path under standard smoothness conditions.
result Obtains a rate of convergence of order \(\mathcal{O}(\log(n) n^{-[s]/(2[s]+2)})\) for the expected error of the estimator.

We consider model-free reinforcement learning for infinite-horizon discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a continuous state space and unknown transition kernel, when only a single sample path under an arbitrary policy of the system is available. We consider the Nearest Neighbor Q-Learning (NNQL) algorithm to…

2018-02-12abs ↗pdf ↗

We develop generic and efficient importance sampling estimators for Monte Carlo evaluation of prices of single- and multi-asset European and path-dependent options in asset price models driven by Lévy processes, extending earlier works which focused on the Black-Scholes and continuous stochastic volatility models. Usin…

2016-08-16abs ↗pdf ↗

The literature on statistical learning for time series assumes the asymptotic independence or ``mixing' of the data-generating process. These mixing assumptions are never tested, nor are there methods for estimating mixing rates from data. We give an estimator for the ββ-mixing rate based on a single stationary sample…

2011-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Policy mirror ascent achieves Nash equilibrium in mean field games without a population generative model.

problem Achieving Nash equilibrium in mean field games without a population generative model.
method Policy mirror ascent, contractive operator, single-path TD learning.
result Policy mirror ascent converges to Nash equilibrium within O~(ε2)\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{-2}) samples.

StrokeCoder uses Transformers to generate images from single examples.

problem Creating diverse images from a single example.
method Transformer Neural Network learns from a single path-based example to generate a set of images.
result The model can generate a large set of deviated images that still represent the original image's style and concept.

Can we automatically design a Convolutional Network (ConvNet) with the highest image classification accuracy under the latency constraint of a mobile device? Neural Architecture Search (NAS) for ConvNet design is a challenging problem due to the combinatorially large design space and search time (at least 200 GPU-hours…

2019-05-10abs ↗pdf ↗

One-shot path planning for multiple agents using neural networks.

problem Efficiently generating optimal or near-optimal paths for multiple agents in robotics.
method Utilizes fully convolutional neural networks for one-shot multi-agent path planning.
result Demonstrates successful generation of optimal or near-optimal paths in over 85% of cases for multi-path planning.

Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.

problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.

This paper is concerned with a recently developed paradigm for population-based optimization, termed particle filter optimization (PFO). This paradigm is attractive in terms of coherence in theory and easiness in mathematical analysis and interpretation. Current PFO algorithms only work for single-objective optimizatio…

2018-08-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep RL optimizes processing paths to desired material structures.

problem Optimizing processing paths to achieve desired material properties.
method Deep reinforcement learning guided by structure representations and reward signals.
result Algorithm learns to find optimal paths to target structures in material space.

New method for predicting paths of unpredictable objects with high confidence.

problem Need for dependable uncertainty estimates in motion planning with diverse unpredictable objects.
method Blend online conformal prediction, multiple time series techniques, and heteroscedasticity addressing.
result Simultaneous forecasting bands that cover entire paths with high probability.

A conformal procedure improves CoT reasoning by aggregating reasoning paths and calibrating abstention rules.

problem Aggregation uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning makes correct answers less reliable.
method Introduces a conformal procedure for CoT reasoning that uses weighted score aggregation and abstention rules.
result Achieves higher selective accuracy with abstention, reducing confident-error rate.

Blending multiple convolutional kernels is proved advantageous in neural architecture design. However, current two-stage neural architecture search methods are mainly limited to single-path search spaces. How to efficiently search models of multi-path structures remains a difficult problem. In this paper, we are motiva…

2020-01-16abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper we outline methodology to efficiently simulate (jump) diffusion bridge sample paths without discretisation error. We achieve this by considering the simulation of conditioned (jump) diffusion bridge sample paths in light of recent work developing a mathematical framework for simulating finite dimensional …

2015-05-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes method for generating paths of stochastic volatility CGMY process for option pricing.

problem Generating accurate sample paths for stochastic volatility models for option pricing.
method Monte-Carlo method for European and American options, least square regression for calibration.
result Calibrated model parameters to S\&P 100 index options market using path-dependent options.

Study non-parametric value function estimation from a single path.

problem Estimating value function from a single trajectory in Markov reward processes.
method Kernel-based multi-step temporal difference (TD) estimates, including KK-step look-ahead TD and TD(λ)(λ).
result Non-asymptotic guarantees for TD estimates, capturing interactions between mixing time and model mis-specification.

This work reduces DIM computation costs by training neural networks on single MC paths.

problem Training neural networks for Dynamic Initial Margin (DIM) computation in counterparty credit risk.
method Constructing a training dataset with noisy but unbiased DIM samples from single MC paths, employing a multi-output neural network structure.
result The approach reduces dataset generation cost to a single MC execution and validates its general applicability and efficiency.

For a variety of regularized optimization problems in machine learning, algorithms computing the entire solution path have been developed recently. Most of these methods are quadratic programs that are parameterized by a single parameter, as for example the Support Vector Machine (SVM). Solution path algorithms do not …

2009-03-27abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes a method to infer differentiation trees from RNA velocity data.

problem Reconstructing dynamic cellular processes from sequencing data.
method Defining varifold distances between RNA velocity curves to approximate shortest-path distances in a tree.
result The varifold distance method approximates the shortest-path distance in a tree isomorphic to the target differentiation tree.

GH-PID uses guided harmonic paths for efficient SOT with interpretable diagnostics.

problem Efficiently solving Stochastic Optimal Transport with hard terminal distributions and soft costs.
method Guided Harmonic Path-Integral Diffusion (GH-PID) framework with low-dimensional guidance.
result GH-PID generates geometry-aware, cost-reducing trajectories that match terminal distributions.

New algorithms sample from complex path measures using neural networks.

problem Sampling from posterior path measures under a general prior process.
method Combines controlled equilibrium dynamics and optimization in infinite-dimensional probability space.
result The algorithms can be integrated with neural networks for learning target trajectory ensembles.

We propose a new proximal, path-following framework for a class of constrained convex problems. We consider settings where the nonlinear---and possibly non-smooth---objective part is endowed with a proximity operator, and the constraint set is equipped with a self-concordant barrier. Our approach relies on the followin…

2016-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Flow Matching enables robust training of CNFs with various probability paths.

problem Training Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs) at large scales.
method Flow Matching (FM) is a simulation-free approach for training CNFs by regressing vector fields of conditional probability paths.
result Flow Matching with diffusion paths yields more robust and stable training compared to diffusion-based methods.

VFMs use noise adapters to conditionally generate images in one step.

problem Conditional image generation with iterative models is slow and requires explicit sampling paths.
method Developed a variational flow map framework that learns noise distributions for conditional sampling.
result VFMs achieve well-calibrated conditional samples in a single forward pass.

A large GPS dataset reveals that a single route often covers 60% of travel observations.

problem Limited insights from small GPS datasets on route choice behavior.
method Evaluation of path generation algorithms including link penalty, link elimination, simulation, and via-node methods.
result Modified link penalty method achieves 97% coverage, significantly higher than previous studies.

New methods improve Monte Carlo estimation of partition functions.

problem Estimating the normalization constant of complex distributions.
method Annealing through paths of distributions to estimate partition functions.
result Optimal path for estimation is arithmetic, improving efficiency.

New findings show score matching's accuracy doesn't ensure numerical stability in diffusion sampling.

problem Numerical stability issues in diffusion sampling despite small forward-marginal error.
method Constructing a smooth score field with arbitrarily small forward-marginal L2L^2 error, showing nonexplosive behavior and moments of every order.
result Euler--Maruyama discretizations can converge in probability even when moments diverge, demonstrating failure of weak convergence.

SPO optimizes LLMs by eliminating group-based baselines and variance issues.

problem Frequent degenerate groups and synchronization barriers in group-based policy optimization methods.
method Single-stream Policy Optimization (SPO) replaces per-group baselines with a persistent, KL-adaptive value tracker and global advantage normalization.
result SPO converges more smoothly and attains higher accuracy than GRPO, improving maj@32 by +3.4 pp across five math benchmarks.

Model rough volatility using RDEs with correlated Brownian motion and fractional Brownian motion.

problem Modeling rough volatility with correlated stochastic processes.
method Developed a method to lift Brownian motion and rough paths, applying it to fractional Brownian motion to model rough volatility.
result Calibrated a new rough volatility model to market data.