A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New approach reduces simulator exploitation by improving strategic robustness.
New approach reduces simulator exploitation by learning robust models.
Developed a simulation method for 3/2 stochastic volatility model.
Finding a good compromise between the exploitation of known resources and the exploration of unknown, but potentially more profitable choices, is a general problem, which arises in many different scientific disciplines. We propose a stylized model for these exploration-exploitation situations, including population or e…
Paper develops a dynamic Bayesian approach for active learning that optimizes exploration-exploitation balance.
Generative neural network simulates characteristic functions.
There are now a broad range of time series classification (TSC) algorithms designed to exploit different representations of the data. These have been evaluated on a range of problems hosted at the UCR-UEA TSC Archive (www.timeseriesclassification.com), and there have been extensive comparative studies. However, our und…
Q-learning is a simple and powerful tool in solving dynamic problems where environments are unknown. It uses a balance of exploration and exploitation to find an optimal solution to the problem. In this paper, we propose using four basic emotions: joy, sadness, fear, and anger to influence a Qlearning agent. Simulation…
Improved Thompson Sampling for Bayesian Optimization.
New method improves simulation efficiency in high dimensions.
The multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method introduced by Giles ({\it Operations Research}, 56(3):607-617, 2008) exploits strong convergence properties to improve the computational complexity by combining simulations with different levels of resolution. In this paper we analyse its efficiency when using the Milst…
EDU method finds diverse optimal solutions for expensive simulators.
We extend recent work (Brehmer, et. al., 2018) that use neural networks as surrogate models for likelihood-free inference. As in the previous work, we exploit the fact that the joint likelihood ratio and joint score, conditioned on both observed and latent variables, can often be extracted from an implicit generative m…
Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithms have achieved great success on many challenging benchmarks (e.g., Computer Go). However, they generally require a large number of rollouts, making their applications costly. Furthermore, it is also extremely challenging to parallelize MCTS due to its inherent sequential nature:…
Paper uses agent-based simulation to identify investor types in financial markets.
We discuss suitable classes of diffusion processes, for which functionals relevant to finance can be computed via Monte Carlo methods. In particular, we construct exact simulation schemes for processes from this class. However, should the finance problem under consideration require e.g. continuous monitoring of the pro…
This research tackles balancing exploration and exploitation in deep RL for partially observable systems.
In this work, we study recommendation systems modelled as contextual multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems. We propose a graph-based recommendation system that learns and exploits the geometry of the user space to create meaningful clusters in the user domain. This reduces the dimensionality of the recommendation problem w…
New method transforms complex stochastic equations into simpler ones for efficient simulation.
The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new technique based on online dictionary learning (ODL) is proposed. The ODL approach inc…
Exploiting capacity of sewer system using decentralized control is a cost effective mean of minimizing the overflow. Given the size of the real sewer system, exploiting all the installed control structures in the sewer pipes can be challenging. This paper presents a divide and conquer solution to implement decentralize…
Bayesian search optimizes exploration of feasible solutions under expensive constraints.
ASD algorithm maximizes model estimates by adaptively labeling points.
Develops a method to simulate rare dangerous events in autonomous systems.
TVR optimizes black-box simulators by targeting variance reduction over control and noise parameters.
As machine learning algorithms become increasingly sophisticated to exploit subtle features of the data, they often become more dependent on simulations. This paper presents a new approach called weakly supervised classification in which class proportions are the only input into the machine learning algorithm. Using on…
In recent years, the interest in leveraging quantum effects for enhancing machine learning tasks has significantly increased. Many algorithms speeding up supervised and unsupervised learning were established. The first framework in which ways to exploit quantum resources specifically for the broader context of reinforc…
Paper uses DeePC to improve urban traffic lights, reducing congestion and emissions.
A new Q-learning controller improves line follower robot control.
Recommender systems play an essential role in the modern business world. They recommend favorable items like books, movies, and search queries to users based on their past preferences. Applying similar ideas and techniques to Monte Carlo simulations of physical systems boosts their efficiency without sacrificing accura…
Paper introduces a new project control method using Monte Carlo and statistical learning.
Framework for multi-scale clustering using phase transitions.
Radio frequency (RF) sensors are used alongside other sensing modalities to provide rich representations of the world. Given the high variability of complex-valued target responses, RF systems are susceptible to attacks masking true target characteristics from accurate identification. In this work, we evaluate differen…
Discovery of causal relations from observational data is essential for many disciplines of science and real-world applications. However, unlike other machine learning algorithms, whose development has been greatly fostered by a large amount of available benchmark datasets, causal discovery algorithms are notoriously di…
Develops a method to estimate rare-event probabilities under distributional uncertainty.
JAX-LOB simulates thousands of LOBs for RL training.
Deep reinforcement learning has recently shown many impressive successes. However, one major obstacle towards applying such methods to real-world problems is their lack of data-efficiency. To this end, we propose the Bottleneck Simulator: a model-based reinforcement learning method which combines a learned, factorized …
Efficiently simulates slow dynamics of high-dimensional stochastic systems.
Despite their exceptional flexibility and popularity, the Monte Carlo methods often suffer from slow mixing times for challenging statistical physics problems. We present a general strategy to overcome this difficulty by adopting ideas and techniques from the machine learning community. We fit the unnormalized probabil…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches commonly used in ABC. However, SVI is highly sensitive to the variance of the gradient…
The paper shows how shared random seeds can reduce variance in machine learning evaluations.
This paper presents novel algorithms which exploit the intrinsic algebraic and combinatorial structure of the matrix completion task for estimating missing en- tries in the general low rank setting. For positive data, we achieve results out- performing the state of the art nuclear norm, both in accuracy and computation…
FinRL-Meta creates diverse market environments for DRL in finance.
The long-term dependence of Bitcoin (BTC), manifesting itself through a Hurst exponent , is exploited in order to predict future BTC/USD price. A Monte Carlo simulation with geometric fractional Brownian motion realisations is performed as extensions of historical data. The accuracy of statistical inferen…
We augment the nonnegative matrix factorization method for audio source separation with cues about directionality of sound propagation. This improves separation quality greatly and removes the need for training data, with only a twofold increase in run time. This is the first method which can exploit directional inform…
CausalSim corrects bias in trace-driven simulations for more accurate results.
Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) simulates realistic multi-asset scenarios for tail risk.
New strategies improve multi-agent decision-making on irregular networks.