Inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments are designed using computer simulations that are approximations of reality, and therefore must be calibrated to accurately predict experimental observations. In this work, we propose a novel nonlinear technique for calibrating from simulations to experiments, or from low fi…
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48 results for “simulation experiments”
The paper proposes an efficient nested simulation design using likelihood ratio method.
problem Designing nested simulations with fixed outer scenarios and minimizing simulation effort.
method Proposes a bi-level optimization problem to decide inner replications and pooling strategies.
result Optimized design achieves $\cO(Γ^{-1})$ mean squared error of estimators.
A new method for adaptive experiments improves inference.
problem Current inference methods for adaptive experiments are weak and asymptotic.
method Simulation-based inference using optimistic simulations.
result Our method achieves better coverage and narrower intervals.
Simulation and neural network analysis predict fiber laydown in spunbond processes.
problem Predicting fiber laydown quality in spunbond processes.
method Design of experiments, blocked neural network analysis.
result Prediction of fiber laydown characteristics and ranking of influencing effects.
New simulation shows trading algorithms' performance varies with parallelism.
problem Validation of trading algorithms' performance in parallel markets.
method Used TBSE, a threaded market simulator, to compare algorithms' performance.
result Trading algorithms' performance differs in parallel vs. sequential markets.
Iterative Model-Based Reinforcement Learning Using Simulations in the Differentiable Neural Computercs.LG
A lifelong learning architecture improves reinforcement learning policies using simulations and a DNC model.
problem Improving reinforcement learning policies in dynamic environments.
method Iterative training of a Reinforcement Learning agent and a DNC model in conjunction.
result DNC models can continually learn from pixels alone to simulate new tasks.
Identifying Entangled Physics Relationships through Sparse Matrix Decomposition to Inform Plasma Fusion Designphysics.plasm-ph
Sparse matrix decomposition identifies key design variables for ICF experiments.
problem Improving predictive capability of ICF simulation codes through better understanding of design inputs and outcomes.
method Sparse Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) and Random Forest (RF) surrogate model.
result Identified clusters of design variables related to physical processes, revealing important variables not previously considered.
SPLICE simulates incurred losses and their revisions.
problem Simulating incurred losses and their revisions in insurance.
method Continuous time simulation of individual claims with revisions over their lifetime.
result Incorporates dependencies and properties of incurred losses.
In computer experiments, a mathematical model implemented on a computer is used to represent complex physical phenomena. These models, known as computer simulators, enable experimental study of a virtual representation of the complex phenomena. Simulators can be thought of as complex functions that take many inputs and…
Maximal Rate of Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction selects simulations to reduce uncertainty efficiently.
problem Efficiently estimating quantities of interest from multi-fidelity simulations.
method Bayesian sequential strategy that maximizes the ratio of expected uncertainty reduction to simulation cost.
result MR-SUR strategy unifies and provides principled approaches to develop new methods.
Understanding the evolution of human society, as a complex adaptive system, is a task that has been looked upon from various angles. In this paper, we simulate an agent-based model with a high enough population tractably. To do this, we characterize an entity called \textit{society}, which helps us reduce the complexit…
TRADES generates realistic market simulations for financial modeling.
problem Generating realistic and responsive market simulations for financial tasks.
method TRADES uses a transformer-based denoising diffusion probabilistic engine to generate time series order flows conditioned on market state.
result TRADES improves market simulation metrics by 3.27-3.48 over state-of-the-art (SoTA) methods.
CausalRegNet generates accurate data for gene perturbation experiments, improving CSL methods.
problem Assessing and selecting causal structure learning methods in gene perturbation experiments.
method CausalRegNet, a multiplicative effect structural causal model, generates accurate observational and interventional data.
result CausalRegNet generates more accurate distributions and scales better than current simulation frameworks.
Proposes a RL method using simulators for stabilizing uncertain systems.
problem Limited experiences and potential dangerous actions during RL learning of real systems.
method Two-stage approach: virtual systems for Q-function learning, real system interactions for final policy.
result Proposed method improves RL performance in uncertain discrete-time systems.
Risk-Neutral Market Simulationq-fin.CP
Simulates risk-neutral markets using neural spline flows.
problem Creating realistic risk-neutral market simulations.
method Developed a low-dimensional martingale representation and used neural spline flows for sampling.
result The calibrated simulator is closest to historical data with respect to Kullback-Leibler divergence.
Analyzing Customer-Facing Vendor Experiences with Time Series Forecasting and Monte Carlo Techniquesstat.ML
Ebay uses forecasting and simulation to decide when to disable a vendor.
problem Determining the optimal time to disable a vendor to avoid customer loss.
method Data-driven approach involving multiplicative seasonality model, Monte Carlo simulation, and linear model.
result Identifies the best time to disable a vendor to minimize customer loss.
Physics-informed neural networks simulate radiative transfer efficiently.
problem Simulating radiative transfer accurately and efficiently.
method Physics-informed neural networks trained to minimize radiative transfer equations.
result PINNs provide an easy-to-implement, robust, and accurate method for radiative transfer simulation.
Develops methods to simulate option prices for a specific stochastic volatility model.
problem No method exists to compute option prices numerically for a non-martingale jump-type model.
method Develops two Monte Carlo simulation methods under change of measure.
result Conducts numerical experiments to validate the developed methods.
New method tackles rugged optimization landscapes in contact-rich scenarios.
problem Optimization challenges in dynamic environments with deformable objects.
method Combines Bayesian optimization with semi-local 'leaps' for global search.
result Outperforms gradient-based and gradient-free baselines in simulation and real robot experiments.
Bayesian optimization improves machine learning system tuning with online and offline experiments.
problem Limited simultaneous experiments in complex policy spaces.
method Augment online field experiments with an offline simulator and apply multi-task Bayesian optimization.
result Substantial gains from including biased offline data in live machine learning systems.
Enhances SBI accuracy with multilevel Monte Carlo for expensive simulators.
problem Limited accuracy in SBI due to expensive simulators.
method Multilevel Monte Carlo techniques for cost-effective SBI.
result Significant enhancement in SBI accuracy with fixed computational budget.
Quantifying and Attributing Submodel Uncertainty in Stochastic Simulation Models and Digital Twinsstat.CO
The paper quantifies and attributes uncertainty in complex system simulations.
problem Uncertainty in complex system simulations due to unknown or approximated subprocesses.
method Developed a framework for quantifying and attributing submodel uncertainty using bootstrapping, Bayesian model averaging, and tree-based methods.
result Individual submodels contribute to overall uncertainty, and their importance can be quantified.
The Partial Testimony of Logs: Evaluation of Language Model Generation under Confounded Model Choicecs.LG
Study uses three sources to evaluate language models fairly.
problem Bias in offline model evaluation due to confounded model choice.
method Combines observational logs, randomized experiments, and simulators.
result Randomized experiment and simulator together recover causal model values.
In this article, we propose an exact simulation method of the Wishart multidimensional stochastic volatility (WMSV) model, which was recently introduced by Da Fonseca et al. \cite{DGT08}. Our method is based onanalysis of the conditional characteristic function of the log-price given volatility level. In particular, we…
Agent-based simulation assesses tradable credit schemes for congestion reduction.
problem Simplistic modeling of TCS impacts in transportation research.
method Agent- and activity-based simulation framework within SimMobility.
result TCS stabilizes network and market performance over time, reducing congestion.
How useful can machine learning be in a quantum laboratory? Here we raise the question of the potential of intelligent machines in the context of scientific research. A major motivation for the present work is the unknown reachability of various entanglement classes in quantum experiments. We investigate this question …
Researchers analyze a new neural network training method.
problem Training robust configurations in discrete weight neural networks.
method Replicated simulated annealing combining physics and classical simulated annealing.
result Explicit criteria for algorithm convergence and successful sampling.
The value of information in a multi-agent market modelphysics.soc-ph
We present an experimental and simulated model of a multi-agent stock market driven by a double auction order matching mechanism. Studying the effect of cumulative information on the performance of traders, we find a non monotonic relationship of net returns of traders as a function of information levels, both in the e…
Learning To Simulatecs.LG
Simulation is a useful tool in situations where training data for machine learning models is costly to annotate or even hard to acquire. In this work, we propose a reinforcement learning-based method for automatically adjusting the parameters of any (non-differentiable) simulator, thereby controlling the distribution o…
Motor control is a set of time-varying muscle excitations which generate desired motions for a biomechanical system. Muscle excitations cannot be directly measured from live subjects. An alternative approach is to estimate muscle activations using inverse motion-driven simulation. In this article, we propose a deep rei…
Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging. The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework is the standard statistical…
Surrogate models speed up RL training in dynamic systems.
problem High computational cost of high-fidelity simulations.
method Developed and tested surrogate models for RL training.
result Surrogate models can significantly accelerate RL training.
New clustering method uses Wasserstein distance to analyze simulation outputs.
problem Analyzing stochastic simulation outputs to uncover relationships and patterns.
method Agglomerative clustering using regularized Wasserstein distance.
result Identifies staffing plans yielding similar performance outcomes.
Efficiently estimates marginal posteriors for complex simulations.
problem Bayesian inference in high-dimensional, intractable likelihood scenarios.
method Simulates and estimates low-dimensional marginal posteriors, using truncated indicators.
result Simulator efficiency and robustness testing of inference results.
Proposes a new simulator for complex arrival processes.
problem Modeling and simulating complex arrival processes with non-stationary and multi-dimensional rates.
method Integrates Monte Carlo and GANs to model a broad class of arrival processes.
result Consistent and efficient estimation of the simulator using Wasserstein distance.
New method speeds up Bayesian inference for complex simulators.
problem Challenges in Bayesian inference for complex stochastic simulators with intractable likelihood functions.
method Optimization Monte Carlo framework reformulated as deterministic optimization problems with gradient-based methods.
result Accurate posterior inference with reduced runtimes compared to existing methods.
Active learning has shown to reduce the number of experiments needed to obtain high-confidence drug-target predictions. However, in order to actually save experiments using active learning, it is crucial to have a method to evaluate the quality of the current prediction and decide when to stop the experimentation proce…
Method improves simulation accuracy by mitigating distribution shift in hybrid systems.
problem Mitigating distribution shift in machine-learning augmented hybrid simulation.
method Tangent-space regularized estimator to control distribution shift.
result Marked improvements in simulation accuracy, especially for systems with high distribution shift.
DN estimator mitigates network interference in experiments.
problem Network interference biases naive experiment designs.
method Differences-in-Neighbors (DN) estimator designed to mitigate interference.
result DN achieves bias second order in interference effect, with exponentially smaller variance.
Gonogo: An R Implementation of Test Methods to Perform, Analyze and Simulate Sensitivity Experimentsstat.CO
Gonogo offers tools for sensitivity experiments in R.
problem Conducting, analyzing, and simulating sensitivity experiments.
method Suite of R functions for various adaptive procedures.
result Achieving overlapping data and refining testing in distribution tails.
Enhances DGP surrogates for efficient active learning.
problem Efficiently learning from expensive simulations with abrupt changes.
method Novel elliptical slice sampling for uncertainty quantification and active learning.
result Smaller training sets lead to effective and computationally tractable models.
Study simulates Variance Gamma processes for energy derivatives pricing.
problem Simulating Variance Gamma processes for accurate energy derivative pricing.
method Three-step procedure to relate self-decomposability to increments, derived from Qu et al. (2019). Exact simulation of skeleton of Variance Gamma and symmetric Variance Gamma driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.
result Exact simulation of Variance Gamma and related processes without numerical inversion.
In this article, we consider a stochastic numerical simulator to assess the impact of some factors on a phenomenon. The simulator is seen as a black box with inputs and outputs. The quality of a simulation, hereafter referred to as fidelity, is assumed to be tunable by means of an additional input of the simulator (e.g…
We propose a novel calibration method for computer simulators, dealing with the problem of covariate shift. Covariate shift is the situation where input distributions for training and test are different, and ubiquitous in applications of simulations. Our approach is based on Bayesian inference with kernel mean embeddin…
Reweighting with Boosted Decision Treesphysics.data-an
Machine learning tools are commonly used in modern high energy physics (HEP) experiments. Different models, such as boosted decision trees (BDT) and artificial neural networks (ANN), are widely used in analyses and even in the software triggers. In most cases, these are classification models used to select the "signal"…
Efficient Calibration of Multi-Agent Simulation Models from Output Series with Bayesian Optimizationq-fin.ST
The paper proposes a framework to calibrate multi-agent simulation models from output series using Bayesian optimization.
problem Calibrating multi-agent simulation models from observable output series.
method Novel eligibility set concept, two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test with Bonferroni correction, Bayesian optimization (BO), and trust-region BO (TuRBO).
result Demonstrated the efficiency of the proposed framework using numerical experiments.
Improves likelihood-free inference by using a new sampling approach to avoid biased data collection.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference without likelihood evaluation for real-world datasets.
method Introduces Neural Proposal (NP) to sample simulation inputs i.i.d. for unbiased posterior inference.
result Demonstrates improved performance, especially for multi-modal posteriors, through experiments.
Approach selects variables and time intervals for comparing high-dimensional time-series data.
problem Comparing high-dimensional time-series data for significant differences.
method Data is split into subintervals, and two-sample tests are performed on each to identify distinguishing variables.
result The approach effectively identifies variables and time intervals where data significantly differs.