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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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77155232309 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for simple hypotheses

Near-optimal private tests for simple and MLR hypotheses developed under Gaussian differential privacy.

problem Developing private tests for simple and MLR hypotheses under Gaussian differential privacy.
method A private mean estimator with data-driven clamping bounds, constructing private test statistics.
result Private tests achieve the same asymptotic relative efficiency as non-private most powerful tests.

DivDis learns diverse hypotheses from underspecified data to improve robustness.

problem Learning from underspecified datasets leads to multiple equally viable solutions, causing out-of-distribution issues.
method DivDis framework: 1) learns diverse hypotheses using unlabeled test data, 2) selects one hypothesis with minimal additional supervision.
result DivDis finds robust features in image and natural language processing problems.

Study identifies and analyzes spurious correlations in data-driven models.

problem Spurious correlations in data-driven models are unreliable and hard to detect.
method Collect and analyze synthetic datasets generated from causal graphs to investigate spurious correlations.
result Patterns connecting spurious correlation hypotheses and model design choices were observed.

Boosting is a celebrated machine learning approach which is based on the idea of combining weak and moderately inaccurate hypotheses to a strong and accurate one. We study boosting under the assumption that the weak hypotheses belong to a class of bounded capacity. This assumption is inspired by the common convention t…

2020-01-31abs ↗pdf ↗

While statistics focusses on hypothesis testing and on estimating (properties of) the true sampling distribution, in machine learning the performance of learning algorithms on future data is the primary issue. In this paper we bridge the gap with a general principle (PHI) that identifies hypotheses with best predictive…

2008-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Hypothesis testing plays a central role in statistical inference, and is used in many settings where privacy concerns are paramount. This work answers a basic question about privately testing simple hypotheses: given two distributions PP and QQ, and a privacy level ε\varepsilon, how many i.i.d. samples are needed to…

2018-11-27abs ↗pdf ↗

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler m…

2019-08-05abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper characterizes isomorphic covers of surfaces and applies it to distinguish representations.

problem Characterizing isomorphic covers of surfaces and distinguishing representations.
method Effective characterization of covers using curves with bounded self-intersection number.
result The set of unmarked traces distinguishes between non-isomorphic covers for large N.

Cylindrical contact homology is a comparatively simple incarnation of symplectic field theory whose existence and invariance under suitable hypotheses was recently established by Hutchings and Nelson. We study this invariant for a general Brieskorn 3-manifold Σ(a1,,an)Σ(a_1,\ldots, a_n), and give a complete description of the…

2019-10-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper tackles efficient learning of non-convex hypotheses in metric spaces.

problem Efficiently find consistent hypotheses for non-convex hypotheses composed of possibly several disconnected regions.
method Proposes a general domain-independent algorithm for finding consistent weakly convex hypotheses and proves sufficient conditions for its efficiency.
result Shows that consistent hypothesis finding problem can be solved in polynomial time for a broad class of weakly convex hypotheses over metric spaces.

rMCL improves on MCL by preserving diversity in predictions for regression problems.

problem Multimodal density estimation in regression settings with multiple targets.
method rMCL uses a learned scoring scheme based on Voronoi tessellations to maintain diversity among predictions.
result rMCL outperforms existing MCL variants in sound source localization tasks.

Machine Learning benefits from prior information and computational power for better performance and understanding.

problem Improper use of Machine Learning methods leads to lack of understanding and performance issues.
method Employing prior information and computational power to solve learning problems, emphasizing interpretability and performance.
result Combining prior information and computational power can lead to better understanding and performance in Machine Learning.

New method uses LLMs to generate detailed scientific hypotheses.

problem Generating detailed, actionable scientific hypotheses from coarse initial directions.
method Hierarchical search method that incrementally adds details to hypotheses.
result Hierarchical search method consistently outperforms strong baselines on expert-annotated hypotheses.

Sequential tests for nonparametric hypotheses using supermartingales.

problem Designing valid sequential tests for nonparametric null hypotheses.
method Using elicitable and identifiable functionals, nonnegative supermartingales, and Online Convex Optimization.
result Rigorous guarantees on asymptotic power for a wide range of alternative hypotheses.

In many practical applications of multiple hypothesis testing using the False Discovery Rate (FDR), the given hypotheses can be naturally partitioned into groups, and one may not only want to control the number of false discoveries (wrongly rejected null hypotheses), but also the number of falsely discovered groups of …

2015-12-10abs ↗pdf ↗

In the online multiple testing problem, p-values corresponding to different null hypotheses are observed one by one, and the decision of whether or not to reject the current hypothesis must be made immediately, after which the next p-value is observed. Alpha-investing algorithms to control the false discovery rate (FDR…

2017-10-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Hypothesis testing in singular models is fundamentally about identifiable vs. non-identifiable parameters.

problem Testing in singular models is inherently problematic due to non-identifiability and degeneracy of Fisher information.
method Formalized the overlap obstruction and showed that hypotheses over non-identifiable parameters are untestable, while those over identifiable parameters reduce to classical testing.
result Hypotheses over non-identifiable parameters are untestable, while those over identifiable parameters reduce to classical testing.

We derive a decomposition formula for the spectral flow of a 1-parameter family of self-adjoint Dirac operators on an odd-dimensional manifold MM split along a hypersurface ΣΣ (M=XΣYM=X\cup_Σ Y). No transversality or stretching hypotheses are assumed and the boundary conditions can be chosen arbitrarily. The formula tak…

1999-02-24abs ↗pdf ↗

s-RBFN integrates multiple hypotheses for efficient and diverse prediction.

problem Integrating multiple hypotheses into learning models for regression.
method Structured Radial Basis Function Network (s-RBFN) using Voronoi tessellations and least-squares training.
result s-RBFN achieves superior generalization and efficiency compared to other models.

Any smooth surface in R^3 may be flattened along the z-axis, and the flattened surface becomes close to a billiard table in R^2 . We show that, under some hypotheses, the geodesic flow of this surface converges locally uniformly to the billiard flow. Moreover, if the billiard is dispersive and has finite horizon, then …

2015-03-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Chordal graphs can be used to encode dependency models that are representable by both directed acyclic and undirected graphs. This paper discusses a very simple and efficient algorithm to learn the chordal structure of a probabilistic model from data. The algorithm is a greedy hill-climbing search algorithm that uses t…

2012-06-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Confirmation bias leads to biased estimates in noisy data analysis.

problem Confirmation bias affects scientific conclusions in noisy data environments.
method Investigation of confirmation bias in Gaussian mixture models using K-means and EM algorithms.
result Estimates from algorithms are biased and resemble initial hypotheses, not the noise.

The paper proves weaker conditions for global smoothings of special Lagrangian submanifolds with conical singularities.

problem Conditions for global smoothings of special Lagrangian submanifolds with isolated conical singularities.
method Proof of weaker conditions for global smoothings.
result Global smoothings are possible under weaker hypotheses than previously known.

Many complex systems can be represented as networks, and the problem of network comparison is becoming increasingly relevant. There are many techniques for network comparison, from simply comparing network summary statistics to sophisticated but computationally costly alignment-based approaches. Yet it remains challeng…

2017-04-02abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper addresses questions of quasi-isometric rigidity and classification for fundamental groups of finite graphs of groups, under the assumption that the Bass-Serre tree of the graph of groups has finite depth. The main example of a finite depth graph of groups is one whose vertex and edge groups are coarse Poinca…

2004-05-13abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a simple technique for encouraging generative RNNs to plan ahead. We train a "backward" recurrent network to generate a given sequence in reverse order, and we encourage states of the forward model to predict cotemporal states of the backward model. The backward network is used only during training, and play…

2017-08-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We study actions of finitely generated groups on $\bbR$-trees under some stability hypotheses. We prove that either the group splits over some controlled subgroup (fixing an arc in particular), or the action can be obtained by gluing together actions of simple types: actions on simplicial trees, actions on lines, and a…

2006-07-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved probabilistic forecasts using behavioral transformations.

problem Improving accuracy and consistency of probabilistic asset price forecasts.
method Behavioral transformation of fundamental expectations to disentangle sentiment-induced biases.
result Substantial forecast gains across various models and risk-preferences.

QBVI uses natural gradients for efficient Bayesian learning.

problem Efficient Bayesian learning in complex models.
method Natural gradient updates in a black-box framework for exponential-family distributions.
result QBVI framework is effective for a wide range of Bayesian inference problems.

Boosting algorithms produce a classifier by iteratively combining base hypotheses. It has been observed experimentally that the generalization error keeps improving even after achieving zero training error. One popular explanation attributes this to improvements in margins. A common goal in a long line of research, is …

2019-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

DP-SPRT improves privacy in sequential tests with near-optimal error rates.

problem Privacy constraints in sequential probability ratio tests.
method A wrapper for SPRT that uses a private mechanism to determine when to stop based on predefined intervals.
result DP-SPRT achieves near-optimal error rates and privacy guarantees.

We consider a distributed learning setup where a network of agents sequentially access realizations of a set of random variables with unknown distributions. The network objective is to find a parametrized distribution that best describes their joint observations in the sense of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Apart fr…

2016-05-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Crowdsourcing has been successfully applied in many domains including astronomy, cryptography and biology. In order to test its potential for useful application in a Smart Grid context, this paper investigates the extent to which a crowd can contribute predictive hypotheses to a model of residential electric energy con…

2017-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Drawing on some recent results that provide the formalism necessary to definite stationarity for infinite random graphs, this paper initiates the study of statistical and learning questions pertaining to these objects. Specifically, a criterion for the existence of a consistent test for complex hypotheses is presented,…

2017-08-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Context. Generative models open up the possibility to interrogate scientific data in a more data-driven way. Aims: We propose a method that uses generative models to explore hypotheses in astrophysics and other areas. We use a neural network to show how we can independently manipulate physical attributes by encoding ob…

2018-12-03abs ↗pdf ↗