Neural process model improves real-time condition monitoring signal prediction.
problem Real-time adaptation for complex condition monitoring signals.
method Label-aware neural processes encoding and reconstruction.
result Advantages in real-time adaptation, enhanced signal prediction with uncertainty quantification, and joint prediction for labels and signals.
Conformal prediction improves signal detection accuracy in railway images.
problem Improving the reliability of machine learning models for railway signal detection.
method Applying conformal prediction to a novel dataset of train operator perspective images.
result The approach enhances the reliability of machine learning models for detecting railway signals.
Recursive prediction of graph signals with new nodes added.
problem Predicting graph signals with new nodes added over time.
method Recursive prediction of graph signals using incoming nodes.
result Recursive method results in good prediction performance close to full graph knowledge.
PHASE predicts surgical complications from physiological signals.
problem Predicting adverse surgical outcomes from physiological signals.
method Self-supervised transfer learning for physiological signals.
result PHASE outperforms other approaches in predicting five surgical complications.
Optimal trading strategy adapts to signals in markets with price impact.
problem Optimal liquidation in markets with linear price impact and predictive signals.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, solved using probabilistic and convex analytic techniques.
result Explicit solution for optimal trading strategy in terms of SDEs.
Signaling proteins are an important topic in drug development due to the increased importance of finding fast, accurate and cheap methods to evaluate new molecular targets involved in specific diseases. The complexity of the protein structure hinders the direct association of the signaling activity with the molecular s…
Proposes a federated learning approach for RUL prediction from nonparametric degradation and failure signals.
problem Cost-effective RUL prediction from limited, non-shared CM signals with unknown parametric forms.
method Joint modeling of nonlinear degradation signals and failure events using federated learning.
result Superior RUL prediction compared to alternatives, validated through simulations and real data.
Unified framework linking firm signals and cross-asset spillovers for SDF estimation.
problem Estimating SDF with cross-asset spillovers and firm-level predictive signals.
method Maximizing Sharpe ratio to jointly estimate signals and spillovers, yielding interpretable SDF.
result SDF consistently outperforms benchmarks across various investment universes and market states.
The paper uses conformal prediction to detect railway signals with confidence.
problem Deploying deep learning models in certified systems requires accurate uncertainty estimates.
method The paper uses conformal prediction and risk control to detect railway signals.
result The conformal prediction framework provides reliable and trustworthy uncertainty estimates for model performance.
Performance analysis, from the external point of view of a client who would only have access to returns and holdings of a fund, evolved towards exact attribution made in the context of portfolio optimisation, which is the internal point of view of a manager controlling all the parameters of this optimisation. Attributi…
Study proposes a time-aware model to predict user conversion intent.
problem Weak predictive signals from users not suitable for conversion prediction.
method Time-aware approach to model user activities and capture conversion intent signals.
result Approach outperforms other models on real-world datasets.
Timely prediction of clinically critical events in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is important for improving care and survival rate. Most of the existing approaches are based on the application of various classification methods on explicitly extracted statistical features from vital signals. In this work, we propose to elim…
Predicting the health of components in complex dynamic systems such as an automobile poses numerous challenges. The primary aim of such predictive systems is to use the high-dimensional data acquired from different sensors and predict the state-of-health of a particular component, e.g., brake pad. The classical approac…
This paper proposes a real-time signal plan recommendation system for traffic incidents.
problem Limited effectiveness of traffic incident management due to late response and workload.
method Decomposes recommendation task into real-time traffic prediction and plan association, learning from historical data and metric learning.
result Precision score of 96.75% and recall of 87.5% on testing plan, with 22.5 minutes lead time ahead of Waze alerts.
Machine learning detects foreign stock market signals for U.S. companies.
problem Detecting value-relevant foreign information for U.S. companies.
method Training over 100,000 models to capture stock-specific relationships.
result Foreign signals predict U.S. stock returns, especially in emerging markets.
Background: Fluctuating hearing loss is characteristic of Meniere's Disease (MD) during acute episodes. However, no reliable audiometric hallmarks are available for counselling the hearing recovery possibility. Aims/Objectives: To find parameters for predicting MD hearing outcomes. Material and Methods: We applied mach…
System guides freehand obstetric ultrasound probe movements.
problem Reducing operator expertise for standard plane acquisition.
method Artificial neural network trained on real scans.
result 88.8% accuracy for goal prediction, 90.9% for action prediction.
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
problem The role of prediction markets beyond forecasting.
method Transaction-level evidence from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Signal Credibility Index (SCI).
result Price signals in prediction markets are more influential due to persistence, breadth of trader types, and cross-platform consensus.
Early hospital mortality prediction is critical as intensivists strive to make efficient medical decisions about the severely ill patients staying in intensive care units. As a result, various methods have been developed to address this problem based on clinical records. However, some of the laboratory test results are…
Estimates signals from a continuous dictionary with sparse mixtures using optimization.
problem Estimating signals from a continuous dictionary with unknown mixtures and noise.
method Formulates a regularized optimization problem with data fidelity and (ℓ1,Lp)-penalty. result High probability bounds on prediction error for the Group-Nonlinear-Lasso solution.
Retraining stabilizes model influence on data.
problem Performativity in predictive models leads to feedback loops.
method Developed the stable signal principle to address retraining dynamics.
result Repeated risk minimization converges geometrically to stable signal direction.
The paper improves prediction and testing for signals from a linear combination of translated features with Gaussian noise.
problem Predicting and testing signals from a linear combination of translated features with varying scale parameter and Gaussian noise.
method Extends previous off-the-grid prediction results, improves minimal distance between features, proposes a goodness-of-fit test with upper bounds.
result Upper bounds on the minimax separation rate match those for the high-dimensional linear model, matching the lower bound.
Paper fine-tunes a language model to predict long-term stock buy signals.
problem Predicting long-term stock price movements with narrative text.
method Fine-tuning a small language model on 10-K reports for buy/sell decisions.
result Buy signals generated from 10-K text are most precise at 6 and 9 months, providing 4.8-9% improvement over random selection.
Every organism in an environment, whether biological, robotic or virtual, must be able to predict certain aspects of its environment in order to survive or perform whatever task is intended. It needs a model that is capable of estimating the consequences of possible actions, so that planning, control, and decision-maki…
Several experimental studies claim to be able to predict the outcome of simple decisions from brain signals measured before subjects are aware of their decision. Often, these studies use multivariate pattern recognition methods with the underlying assumption that the ability to classify the brain signal is equivalent t…
Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies an…
This paper proposes a stochastic model using the concept of Markov chains for the inter-state transitions of the millisecond order quasi-stable phase synchronized patterns or synchrostates, found in multi-channel Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. First and second order transition probability matrices are estimated fo…
The paper explains stock market predictability through a model of heterogeneous beliefs.
problem Understanding and predicting stock market behavior based on news and investor beliefs.
method A discrete-time model of heterogeneous beliefs where some agents receive noisy signals about asset fundamentals.
result Momentum and reversal in stock prices arise from investors' incorrect beliefs about signal accuracy and fundamental values.
Predictive topic models retain only relevant terms for better prediction and topic coherence.
problem Misspecification of topic models leads to poor prediction and topic coherence.
method Uses supervisory signal to select vocabulary terms improving prediction performance.
result Prediction-focused topic models learn more coherent topics while maintaining competitive predictions.
Research compares ML and Time Series methods for generating trading signals.
problem Efficiency of on-line learning Algorithms in generating trading signals.
method Used technical indicators and ensemble of Random Forests, also Kalman Filter.
result Kalman Filter outperformed Random Forests in on-line learning predictions of stock prices.
Graph-based framework predicts ADR signals from clinical data.
problem Detecting ADRs in post-market surveillance using clinical data.
method Developed a Drug-disease graph with Graph Neural Network for ADR signal prediction.
result Improved AUROC and AUPRC performance (0.795 and 0.775) compared to other algorithms.
Due to the dynamic nature, chaotic time series are difficult predict. In conventional signal processing approaches signals are treated either in time or in space domain only. Spatio-temporal analysis of signal provides more advantages over conventional uni-dimensional approaches by harnessing the information from both …
Improved preterm prediction using synthetic EHG signals.
problem Prediction bias towards term labor in preterm EHG data.
method Quantifying synthetic samples' effect, optimizing feature weights, and combining activation functions.
result Substantial improvement in prediction precision.
Generative networks have made it possible to generate meaningful signals such as images and texts from simple noise. Recently, generative methods based on GAN and VAE were developed for graphs and graph signals. However, the mathematical properties of these methods are unclear, and training good generative models is di…
Improved language identification accuracy through signal combination methods.
problem Enhancing speech recognition accuracy across multiple languages.
method Combining low-level acoustic signals with language-specific recognizer signals using lattice-based ensemble models and deep neural networks.
result Deep neural network model outperforms lattice-based ensemble model, reducing error rate from 5.5% to 4.3%.
Transformer model predicts train axle vibrations for safer maintenance.
problem Prevent mechanical failures in railway axles.
method Integrates Deep Autoregressive solution with spectral methods and observation models.
result Transformer model (ShaftFormer) improves predictive maintenance for railway axles.
New framework models graph signals as distribution-valued signals in Wasserstein space.
problem Limitations of classical vector-based GSP, including synchronous observations and uncertainty.
method Introduces graph distribution-valued signals (GDSs) in the Wasserstein space.
result GDSs naturally encode uncertainty and stochasticity, generalizing traditional graph signals.
Improved crude oil price forecasting using multi-dimensional LLM sentiment signals.
problem Challenges in predicting crude oil prices due to unstructured news.
method Extracted five sentiment dimensions from GPT-4o, Llama 3.2-3b, and FinBERT models on energy-sector news articles.
result Combining GPT-4o and FinBERT yields the best predictive performance for weekly WTI crude oil futures returns.
In this article, we propose an approach that can make use of not only labeled EEG signals but also the unlabeled ones which is more accessible. We also suggest the use of data fusion to further improve the seizure prediction accuracy. Data fusion in our vision includes EEG signals, cardiogram signals, body temperature …
Private equity deals predict public market returns with up to 70% accuracy.
problem Predicting public market behavior from private equity transactions.
method Logit model using detailed analysis of private equity diligence process.
result Model predicts public market returns with up to 70% accuracy in specific sectors.
Proposes a method to boost deep reinforcement learning with sparse rewards.
problem Challenges in learning complex behaviors with long horizons and sparse rewards.
method Predictive coding for reward shaping.
result Achieves better learning by providing reward signals that understand environment dynamics and emphasize useful features.
In this article, we improve extreme learning machines for regression tasks using a graph signal processing based regularization. We assume that the target signal for prediction or regression is a graph signal. With this assumption, we use the regularization to enforce that the output of an extreme learning machine is s…
This research improves asset life prediction by integrating deep learning with mixture distributions.
problem Predicting residual useful life for assets with multiple failure modes.
method Integrates mixture (log)-location-scale distribution with deep learning.
result Proposed models outperform existing methods in predicting residual useful life.
Cyber attacks are growing in frequency and severity. Over the past year alone we have witnessed massive data breaches that stole personal information of millions of people and wide-scale ransomware attacks that paralyzed critical infrastructure of several countries. Combating the rising cyber threat calls for a multi-p…
Conformal prediction sets improve human decision making by quantifying model uncertainty.
problem Humans signal uncertainty and offer alternatives when unsure, but machine learning models often lack this feature.
method Conducted a randomized controlled trial with human subjects given conformal prediction sets.
result Human accuracy improves when given conformal prediction sets compared to fixed-size prediction sets.
We create a formal framework for the design of informative securities in prediction markets. These securities allow a market organizer to infer the likelihood of events of interest as well as if he knew all of the traders' private signals. We consider the design of markets that are always informative, markets that are …
Model predicts epileptic seizures with high accuracy using EEG signals.
problem Predicting epileptic seizures with high accuracy for diagnosis and treatment.
method Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient with a linear classifier on generalized Gaussian modeling.
result 100% effectiveness for sensitivity and specificity greater than 83%.
Falls prevention, especially in older people, becomes an increasingly important topic in the times of aging societies. In this work, we present Gated Recurrent Unit-based neural networks models designed for predicting falls (syncope). The cardiovascular systems signals used in the study come from Gravitational Physiolo…