We find a sharp local maximum in cross-correlation of EUR/USD and BTC/USD pairs, indicating short-term momentum trading.
problem The Epps effect is observed in various markets but deviates in foreign exchange and cryptocurrency markets.
method We document and analyze the cross-correlation function of EUR/USD and BTC/USD pairs to identify the Epps effect deviation.
result The sharp local maximum in cross-correlation function reveals the activity of short-term momentum traders.
Enhanced Momentum Transformer outperforms traditional trading strategies.
problem Improving trading performance in equities with evolving market conditions.
method Building a Momentum Transformer using an attention mechanism combined with LSTM, capturing long-term dependencies and transaction costs.
result Average returns of 4.14% and Sharpe ratio of 1.12, similar to original results but with higher volatility.
Intelligent Momentum Transformer outperforms traditional trading strategies.
problem Improving time-series momentum and mean-reversion trading strategies.
method Attention-based deep-learning architecture (Momentum Transformer) combining attention and LSTM.
result Momentum Transformer outperforms benchmarks and adapts to new market regimes.
NoxTrader predicts stock returns using LSTM for profitable trading.
problem Predicting profitable stock returns for quantitative trading.
method LSTM model for time-series analysis of stock data.
result Improved investment return from -60% to 325%.
The paper shows how overreactions in stock prices can be predicted and used for trading.
problem Predicting and monetizing overreactions in stock prices as momentum signals.
method High-frequency data from Twitter, machine learning models (XGBoost, Random Forests, Deep Neural Networks, Bidirectional LSTMs), and SHAP for explainability.
result Machine learning models significantly outperform traditional overreaction rules at ultra short horizons.
Model predicts stock market volatility, leading to successful trading.
problem Real-time risk management in stock markets.
method Algebraic theory of news impact, Bessel and hypergeometric functions, ML procedures.
result Trading system proved successful in historical and real-time experiments.
This paper uses Bayesian models to analyze CTA returns across short and long-term trends.
problem The relative merits and interactions of short- and long-term trend systems in CTA replication remain controversial.
method Dynamic decomposition of CTA returns into short-term trend, long-term trend, and market beta factors using a Bayesian graphical model.
result The blend of horizons shapes the strategy's risk-adjusted performance.
This paper analyzes the skewness of momentum trading strategies.
problem Understanding the skewness of momentum trading strategies.
method Examined linear and nonlinear momentum trading strategies, focusing on skewness.
result Skewness is generally positive and has a term structure.
Dynamic econometric models improve trading signals in momentum strategies.
problem Static momentum strategies are inefficient; dynamic models enhance accuracy.
method Dynamic binary classifier model to learn time-varying momentum importance.
result Dynamic classifier outperforms traditional naive time series momentum strategy.
StockGPT predicts stock returns using AI, outperforming traditional strategies.
problem Making accurate stock predictions and trading decisions.
method Trains an autoregressive model on historical stock returns, using attention mechanisms to learn patterns.
result StockGPT's portfolios outperform traditional strategies, yielding significant alphas.
Unified model learns from both time-series and cross-sectional momentum features.
problem Separate time-series and cross-sectional momentum strategies do not consider concurrent relationships.
method Spatio-Temporal Momentum strategies using neural networks to combine both types of momentum.
result Simple neural network with single fully connected layer generates trading signals for all assets.
A HMM for intraday momentum trading reduces lagging and incorporates side information.
problem Time-lagging in existing momentum trading models leads to incorrect momentum signals.
method State space formulation with latent momentum states, cross-validation for state estimation, and Bayesian inference for prediction.
result The model reduces lagging and accurately predicts market changes.
Optimizes trading returns using Hurst exponent and Q-learning.
problem Maximizing returns from momentum and mean reversion strategies.
method Classifies assets using Hurst exponent and uses Q-learning to improve trading algorithms.
result Trading with Hurst exponent can achieve higher returns but at higher risk.
Study shows how 'crowding' in equity trading affects performance and costs.
problem Deterioration of strategy performance, increased trading costs, and systemic risk due to equity factor crowding.
method Direct metrics of crowding based on imbalances of trades executed on the market, analyzing U.S. equity market data.
result Significant signs of crowding in well-known equity signals, especially Momentum, affecting order flow and portfolio rebalancing.
Study finds short-term trading signals can enhance alpha in U.S. S&P 500 portfolios.
problem Traditional factor investing misses real-time market dislocations.
method Double-selection LASSO framework to control for fundamental factors and isolate trading signals.
result 17 distinct trading signals capture significant risk premiums and enhance portfolio diversification.
We test the price momentum effect in the Korean stock markets under the momentum universe shrinkage to subuniverses of the KOSPI 200. Performance of the momentum strategy is not homogeneous with respect to change of the momentum universe. It is found that some submarkets generate the higher momentum returns than other …
Improved trading strategy using deep learning and changepoint detection for market changes.
problem Traditional momentum strategies struggle with rapid market changes, especially after trend reversals.
method Inserted an online changepoint detection module into a Deep Momentum Network (DMN) pipeline.
result Improvement in Sharpe ratio by one-third over 1995-2020 period, especially beneficial in nonstationary periods.
Study high-frequency trading patterns in cryptocurrencies.
problem Understanding automated trading algorithms in cryptocurrency markets.
method Analyzes intraday trading data of cryptocurrencies, focusing on returns, volumes, and volatility.
result Provides insights into predictability of economic value in cryptocurrency markets.
Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements from trade data.
problem Predicting short-term price changes in cryptocurrencies.
method Long Short-term Memory Network (LSTM) trained on trade-by-trade data.
result Optimal LSTM model achieves over 60% accuracy on out-of-sample test periods.
Integrates momentum into RNNs to improve training.
problem Vanishing gradient in RNNs during training.
method Established connection between RNN dynamics and GD, integrated momentum.
result MomentumRNNs alleviate vanishing gradient issue and improve convergence.
Modeling financial bubbles and crashes with a cubic momentum function.
problem Capturing the micro-level dynamics of investor behavior and panic selling.
method Introducing a cubic function of market momentum to model trend-following and sudden crashes.
result The model successfully replicates complex, nonlinear bubble dynamics.
New method for estimating firm linkages using CVLs and QCML.
problem Estimating firm linkages for profitable trading strategies.
method Characteristic Vector Linkages (CVLs) and Quantum Cognition Machine Learning (QCML).
result QCML similarity outperforms Euclidean similarity in constructing profitable trading strategies.
Financial trading is at the forefront of time-series analysis, and has grown hand-in-hand with it. The advent of electronic trading has allowed complex machine learning solutions to enter the field of financial trading. Financial markets have both long term and short term signals and thus a good predictive model in fin…
HFformer outperforms LSTM in high-frequency trading with multiple signals.
problem Improving high-frequency trading performance using deep learning models.
method Introducing HFformer, a hybrid Transformer model for time series forecasting.
result HFformer achieves higher cumulative PnL than LSTM in backtesting.
Deep RL strategies outperform classical models in trading.
problem Designing profitable trading strategies for futures contracts.
method Deep Reinforcement Learning with volatility scaling.
result Deep RL algorithms outperformed classical models with positive profits.
Support vector machines predict cryptocurrency price movements with high accuracy.
problem Predicting short-term price movements in cryptocurrencies.
method Developed technical indicators, tested various classification methods, including SVM.
result Support vector machines yield the most profitable trading strategies.
Fused Encoder Networks improve momentum strategies on crypto data.
problem Deploying momentum strategies on crypto data with limited samples leads to over-fitted models.
method Hybrid transfer learning model combining source and target datasets.
result Fused Encoder Networks outperform classical momentum strategies and benchmarks.
Improved LSTM cell for high-frequency trading forecasts.
problem Precise stock price forecasting with minimal lags.
method Revised long short-term memory (LSTM) cell with optimal gate/state selection.
result Lower forecasting error compared to other recurrent neural networks.
Momentum SGD fails to track nonstationary optima due to drift amplification.
problem Tracking nonstationary optima in stochastic optimization.
method Theoretical analysis of SGD and momentum variants under strong convexity and smoothness.
result Momentum incurs a drift-amplification penalty that diverges as the momentum parameter approaches 1, leading to systematic lag.
Study finds no statistically significant trading edge in MNQ futures signals from OHLCV data.
problem Testing intraday momentum signals from OHLCV data in MNQ futures under realistic execution constraints.
method 947 trading days of five-minute data, 14 signal families evaluated, strict institutional criteria applied.
result No signal satisfies all criteria simultaneously, gross edge insufficient to overcome costs.
This paper examines momentum spillover across multiple asset classes using only pricing data.
problem Challenges in studying momentum spillover across diverse asset classes due to lack of common characteristics.
method Utilised a linear and interpretable graph learning model to reveal momentum spillover network.
result Network momentum strategy yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.5 and an annual return of 22%.
This study compares machine learning models for short-term stock price forecasting.
problem Accurate short-term stock price prediction in the NYSE.
method Compared four machine learning models (XGBoost, Random Forest, Multi-layer Perceptron, Support Vector Regression) on NYSE stocks.
result XGBoost model outperformed others with highest accuracy.
The study analyzes trading imbalances from SEC Form 13F-HR filings to identify profitable trading opportunities.
problem Identifying profitable trading opportunities based on SEC Form 13F-HR filings.
method Statistical analysis of holdings variations and imbalances between consecutive reporting periods.
result A profitable trading strategy can be implemented by betting against the sign of imbalances with a 1-2 month time horizon.
Short-term incentives lead to riskier trading strategies.
problem Optimal execution with performance barriers.
method Analyzes the impact of short-term performance incentives on trading behavior.
result Short-term incentives result in more aggressive but less risky trading strategies in the short term, but poorer performance over long periods.
The paper proposes a method to identify high-quality financial patterns using entropy.
problem Extracting reliable short-term patterns from noisy financial data.
method Entropy-assisted framework for clustering and pruning patterns.
result High-quality patterns with low local entropy and historical profitability.
A minimal model of a market of myopic non-cooperative agents who trade bilaterally with random bids reproduces qualitative features of short-term electric power markets, such as those in California and New England. Each agent knows its own budget and preferences but not those of any other agent. The near-equilibrium pr…
Study uses xLSTM in DRL for better stock trading performance.
problem Limited performance of LSTM in dynamic stock trading environments.
method Combines xLSTM in actor and critic components with PPO optimization.
result xLSTM-based model outperforms LSTM in trading metrics.
Study uses LSTM models to detect Wyckoff patterns in currency trading.
problem Understanding market dynamics and identifying trading opportunities.
method Dissecting Wyckoff Phases, using CNNs for spatial data and LSTM for temporal data.
result Deep learning models enhance pattern recognition in financial markets.
MiM-StocR combines momentum indicators and adaptive ranking loss for better stock recommendation.
problem Lack of simultaneous short-term trend and ranking prediction in stock recommendation models.
method Integrates momentum indicators and proposes Adaptive-k ApproxNDCG for ranking optimization.
result MiM-StocR outperforms state-of-the-art MTL baselines in stock recommendation.
Paper optimizes stock option forecasting using ML models and improved trading strategies.
problem Improving accuracy of stock option predictions and trading decisions.
method Application of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM).
result Optimized stock option investment results through improved trading strategies and model combination.
Model optimizes trading strategy with unobservable toxicity.
problem Maximizing daily trading profit with unobservable toxicity.
method Formulated as a partially observable stochastic control problem, solved in two steps.
result P&L performance gap is negligible (0.01%) in all scenarios.
Machine learning models outperform traditional technical analysis in Bitcoin trading.
problem Maximizing profits in the Bitcoin market using trading signals.
method Comparison of machine learning models (LightGBM, LSTM) and technical analysis strategies (EMA, MACD+ADX).
result LSTM model achieved a 65.23% cumulative return over a year, significantly outperforming other strategies.
Stochastic momentum methods trade compute efficiency for serial runtime.
problem Stochastic momentum methods trade compute efficiency for serial runtime.
method Stochastic HB and ASGD for consistent linear regression with Gaussian covariates.
result HB preserves SGD-level CE over a larger batch-size window, allowing larger batches to reduce serial runtime until HB reaches its deterministic accelerated scale.
In this article, we discuss various implementation of L1 filtering in order to detect some properties of noisy signals. This filter consists of using a L1 penalty condition in order to obtain the filtered signal composed by a set of straight trends or steps. This penalty condition, which determines the number of breaks…
Deep learning predicts currency volatility accurately.
problem Predicting future volatility in Forex trading.
method Constructed a deep-learning network using multiscale LSTM with multi-currency pairs.
result Multiscale LSTM model outperforms conventional models.
Event-driven features improve forex price prediction accuracy.
problem Inaccurate predictions in forex due to market volatility.
method Developed event-driven features and used LSTM, BiLSTM, GRU models.
result Improved prediction system with minimal risk.
Graph-based multi-view model predicts trading volume movement from various sources.
problem Lack of comprehensive understanding of trading volume movement from different sources.
method Graph-based approach incorporating long-term, short-term, and sudden event information.
result Our method outperforms strong baselines by a large margin.
This paper proposes a novel adaptive algorithm for the automated short-term trading of financial instrument. The algorithm adopts a semantic sentiment analysis technique to inspect the Twitter posts and to use them to predict the behaviour of the stock market. Indeed, the algorithm is specifically developed to take adv…