This paper proposes a framework to predict long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in multivariate time series.
problem Existing prediction methods often ignore the distinction between long-term trends and short-term fluctuations.
method The paper introduces a MTS forecasting framework that uses both original time series and its first difference to capture long-term trends and short-term fluctuations.
result The proposed method improves forecasting performance by using more supervision information.
The paper analyzes Indian stock sectors using multifractal analysis for long and short-term investment.
problem Investment risk and stability in Indian stock sectors.
method Sector-wise multifractal analysis of Bombay Stock Exchange, India, over short and long time scales.
result Long-term investment in stable sectors is more profitable, while sectors with large fluctuations may lead to downturns.
Predicting absolute magnitude of fluctuations of price, even if their sign remains unknown, is important for risk analysis and for option prices. In the present work, we display our predictions about absolute magnitude of daily fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA), utilizing the original theory of c…
Cryptocurrency forecasting model considers macro, sentiment, and technical indicators.
problem High price volatility in cryptocurrency markets.
method Dual-prediction mechanism incorporating macroeconomic fluctuations, technical indicators, and individual cryptocurrency price changes.
result The proposed model outperforms ten comparison methods in short-term cryptocurrency forecasting.
We present a model that investigates the spontaneous emergence of randomness in equity market microstructure. The phase space analysis of our model exposes an endogenous source of fluctuation in price and volume. We formulate a control problem for maximizing price regularity and stability while minimizing entanglement …
Price fluctuations in financial markets can be characterized by Lévy's stable distribution, which is supported by the generalized central limit system. When the stable parameters were estimated from four different stock markets in long term, they similarly indicated an unique value. On the other hand, when analyzed in …
Electricity is bought and sold in wholesale markets at prices that fluctuate significantly. Short-term forecasting of electricity prices is an important endeavor because it helps electric utilities control risk and because it influences competitive strategy for generators. As the "smart grid" grows, short-term price fo…
Graph-based multi-view model predicts trading volume movement from various sources.
problem Lack of comprehensive understanding of trading volume movement from different sources.
method Graph-based approach incorporating long-term, short-term, and sudden event information.
result Our method outperforms strong baselines by a large margin.
New model predicts financial market abnormalities using stock index uncertainties.
problem Forecasting abnormal financial fluctuations in the market.
method Quantitative analysis of mean and volatility uncertainties, constructing early warning indicators.
result Established a new abnormal fluctuations warning model.
Study on price fluctuations and persistence in European electricity spot markets.
problem Analyzing variability and persistence of electricity prices in European spot markets.
method Analysis of hourly, intraday, and 15-min intraday market prices; quantification of fluctuations, correlations, and extreme events; classification into circulation weather types.
result Different time scales in market dynamics; multifractal behavior below 12 hours; anti-correlation and mean reversion above 12 hours; long-term behavior influenced by four-day weather patterns; q-Gaussian distributions as best fit. The correlation matrix formalism is used to study temporal aspects of the stock market evolution. This formalism allows to decompose the financial dynamics into noise as well as into some coherent repeatable intraday structures. The present study is based on the high-frequency Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) data over the t…
New framework detects crypto wash trading using liquidity measures.
problem Detecting and monitoring wash trading in crypto assets.
method Developed a new framework to detect wash trading through real-time liquidity fluctuation measures.
result Joint elevation in liquidity jump and diffusion indicates wash trading in crypto assets.
The financial market is nonpredictable, as according to the Bachelier, the mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero. Nevertheless, we observe in the price fluctuations the two distinct scales, short and long time. Behaviour of a market in long terms, such as year intervals, is different from that in short ter…
A simple quantum model explains the Levy-unstable distributions for individual stock returns observed by ref.[1]. The probability density function of the returns is written as the squared modulus of an amplitude. For short time intervals this amplitude is proportional to a Cauchy-distribution and satisfies the Schroedi…
TimeBridge addresses non-stationarity in long-term time series forecasting.
problem Non-stationarity in multivariate time series leads to spurious regressions and obscures long-term relationships.
method TimeBridge segments series into patches, applying Integrated Attention for short-term non-stationarity and Cointegrated Attention for long-term cointegration.
result TimeBridge achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting.
In this paper, we study the ability to make the short-term prediction of the exchange price fluctuations towards the United States dollar for the Bitcoin market. We use the data of realized volatility collected from one of the largest Bitcoin digital trading offices in 2016 and 2017 as well as order information. Experi…
The waiting time needed for a stock market index to undergo a given percentage change in its value is found to have an up-down asymmetry, which, surprisingly, is not observed for the individual stocks composing that index. To explain this, we introduce a market model consisting of randomly fluctuating stocks that occas…
Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of the power sector. Forecasting load at a fine granularity such as hourly loads of individual households is challenging due to higher volatility and inherent stochasticity. At the aggregate levels, such as monthly load at a grid, the uncerta…
Model forecasts motor vehicle collision rates with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting motor vehicle collision rates with high accuracy.
method Adopted Heston Stochastic Volatility model and extended it to account for seasonality and accelerated safety periods.
result Short-term forecasts show high accuracy (over 95%) and outperform existing models.
Cryptocurrency prices predicted using LSTM, SVM, and polynomial regression.
problem Uncertainty in crypto coin values.
method Long Short Term Memory, Support Vector Machine, Polynomial Regression models.
result Support Vector Machine with linear kernel had the smallest mean square error.
Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity of the mezo-economic …
We investigate the relation between the fair price for European-style vanilla options and the distribution of short-term returns on the underlying asset ignoring transaction and other costs. We compute the risk-neutral probability density conditional on the total variance of the asset's returns when the option expires.…
Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean reverting limit orders that lead to sub-diffu…
Study enhances neural network predictions for wave height using topological features.
problem Challenges in predicting wave heights due to short-term and long-term factors.
method Hybridization of persistent homology with neural networks for feature engineering.
result Significant improvements in R2 score and reductions in errors for various neural network models. The diagonal effect of orders is well documented in different markets, which states that orders are more likely to be followed by orders of the same aggressiveness and implies the presence of short-term correlations in order flows. Based on the order flow data of 43 Chinese stocks, we investigate if there are long-rang…
The paper revisits the investment simulation based on strategies exhibited by Generalized (m,2)-Zipf law to present an interesting characterization of the wildness in financial time series. The investigations of dominant strategies on each specific time series shows that longer words dominant in larger time scale exhib…
Hybrid model forecasts Bitcoin prices better than standard LSTM.
problem Forecasting Bitcoin price fluctuations.
method VMD for decomposition, LSTM for modeling IMFs, final prediction aggregation.
result Hybrid model outperforms standard LSTM in various metrics.
Stockformer uses wavelet transform and multi-task learning to predict stock returns and trends.
problem Challenges in predicting market dynamics due to policy uncertainty and economic events.
method Integrates wavelet transformation and multitask self-attention networks to capture market trends and fluctuations.
result Stockformer outperforms existing models on multiple real stock market datasets, demonstrating exceptional stability and reliability.
The paper proposes a new method for probabilistic load forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows.
problem High variability in short-term load forecasting at the low-voltage level due to fluctuating demand and increasing electrification.
method Flexible conditional density forecasting based on Bernstein polynomial normalizing flows with neural network control.
result Density predictions outperform traditional methods for 24h-ahead load forecasting.
The statistical properties of the return intervals τq between successive 1-min volatilities of 30 liquid Chinese stocks exceeding a certain threshold q are carefully studied. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test shows that 12 stocks exhibit scaling behaviors in the distributions of τq for different thresholds q. …
The paper compares advanced deep learning models for Indian stock price forecasting.
problem Complexity of stock price forecasting due to numerous influencing factors.
method Utilizes historical data from national banks in India, combines deep learning models and sentiment analysis.
result Achieved higher accuracy in stock price forecasting compared to traditional methods.
Study shows different price correlations in European electricity markets.
problem Stochastic variability and temporal correlation in electricity prices.
method Comparison of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Kramers--Moyal equation.
result Intraday 15 minutes spot markets show strong negative correlations, unlike other markets.
New hybrid model predicts carbon prices using blockchain data.
problem Predicting carbon prices with fluctuation.
method DILATED CNN-LSTM framework with L1/L2 regularization.
result DILATED CNN-LSTM outperforms traditional models.
Study shows how COVID-19 pandemic affected China's crude oil futures market efficiency.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on China's crude oil futures market efficiency.
method Multifractal analysis to compare market efficiency before and during the pandemic.
result Market efficiency of SC and its cross-correlations with other assets increased significantly after the outbreak of COVID-19.
Deep learning model reduces food waste by stabilizing online food delivery supply chains.
problem Wastage and bullwhip effect in online food delivery services.
method Two-phase LSTM network for demand forecasting, newsvendor model for inventory management.
result Significant reduction in bullwhip effect and food waste, improved forecasting accuracy.
Paper predicts high-frequency futures return directions using mean-uncertainty methods.
problem Data imbalance in short-term price movements of futures markets.
method Employed mean-uncertainty logistic regression and support vector machines under sublinear expectation framework.
result Mean-uncertainty approaches outperform conventional methods in classification metrics and average returns.
A new model for stock price fluctuations is proposed, based upon an analogy with the motion of tracers in Gaussian random fields, as used in turbulent dispersion models and in studies of transport in dynamically disordered media. Analytical and numerical results for this model in a special limiting case of a single-sca…
Study shows Twitter sentiments predict stock price fluctuations.
problem Predicting stock prices using public opinions.
method Time series analysis and natural language processing with LSTM model.
result Positive, negative, and subjective sentiments correlate with stock price changes.
The rollout of new versions of a feature in modern applications is a manual multi-stage process, as the feature is released to ever larger groups of users, while its performance is carefully monitored. This kind of A/B testing is ubiquitous, but suboptimal, as the monitoring requires heavy human intervention, is not gu…
Proposes a neural LOB model for market-making.
problem Capturing dynamic LOB events in financial markets.
method Neural Hawkes process for modeling LOB events.
result Model captures real market price fluctuations.
This paper proposes recurrent neuron networks (RNNs) for a fingerprinting indoor localization using WiFi. Instead of locating user's position one at a time as in the cases of conventional algorithms, our RNN solution aims at trajectory positioning and takes into account the relation among the received signal strength i…
Nostradamus links climate and stock market performance.
problem Understanding the impact of climate on stock prices.
method Analyzing historical data, climate indicators, and natural disasters.
result Significant correlation between climate and stock price fluctuations.
We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial…
Study uses FinBERT for financial sentiment analysis to predict stock movement.
problem Predicting stock movement with greater accuracy.
method Integrates sentiment analysis with FinBERT and LSTM networks.
result FinBERT enhances model's ability to predict market fluctuations.
The paper introduces a new σ-LSTM cell for volatility forecasting using stylized facts.
problem Lack of explainability and stylized knowledge in neural network volatility modeling.
method Introduces a new σ-LSTM cell with a stochastic processing layer, designed to incorporate stylized facts about volatility. result Shows good out-of-sample forecasting performance with the σ-LSTM cell. Study shows cryptocurrency price fluctuations become more similar to national currencies over time.
problem Understanding the volatility and inequality in cryptocurrency prices.
method Calculated inequality measures (Gini, Kolkata indices, Q factor) for cryptocurrency and national currency price fluctuations over 10 years. result Cryptocurrency price fluctuations become more similar to national currencies over time.
A novel application of the correlation matrix formalism to study dynamics of the financial evolution is presented. This formalism allows to quantify the memory effects as well as some potential repeatable intradaily structures in the financial time-series. The present study is based on the high-frequency Deutsche Aktie…
Bayesian models' singular fluctuation is shown to be akin to specific heat, influencing model complexity and generalization.
problem Understanding the thermodynamic interpretation of singular fluctuation in Bayesian models.
method Showed singular fluctuation as the curvature of Bayesian free energy and variance of log-likelihood observable under a Gibbs posterior.
result Singular fluctuation is the statistical analogue of specific heat, controlling model complexity and generalization.