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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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101202302403 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for short-term features

Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.

problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.

A new model for pricing ultra-short-term options with complex volatility patterns.

problem Complex pricing of ultra-short-term options due to oscillations in implied volatility.
method Edgeworth++ model with nonparametric stochastic volatility and deterministic shift extension.
result Fast and accurate closed-form option pricing for ultra-short-term options.

The paper predicts travel times using tree-based ensembles.

problem Predicting travel times between urban points over short and long horizons.
method Tree-based ensemble methods trained on taxi trip records with additional features from weather and routing data.
result Adding routing data improves model performance and short-term predictions require less data.

Research predicts healthcare index movements using historical OHLC data.

problem Predicting the directional movement of healthcare indices based on historical data.
method Supervised classification task with a one-step-ahead rolling window, using a diverse feature set including OHLC ratios.
result Robust predictive performance with accuracy exceeding 0.8 and Matthews correlation coefficients above 0.6, highlighting the importance of nowcasting features.

Study enhances neural network predictions for wave height using topological features.

problem Challenges in predicting wave heights due to short-term and long-term factors.
method Hybridization of persistent homology with neural networks for feature engineering.
result Significant improvements in R2R^2 score and reductions in errors for various neural network models.

Automated detection of voice disorders with computational methods is a recent research area in the medical domain since it requires a rigorous endoscopy for the accurate diagnosis. Efficient screening methods are required for the diagnosis of voice disorders so as to provide timely medical facilities in minimal resourc…

2018-12-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Predicting MRI coil failures using time series classification.

problem Early detection of MRI hardware failures to prevent downtime.
method Training a statistical model on sequential image data features over time.
result LSTMs achieved an F-score of 86.43% and 98.33% accuracy in predicting coil damage.

Paper develops adaptive models for robust energy forecasting with missing data.

problem Operational models assume complete data; missing data can degrade forecast accuracy.
method Adaptive robust optimization and adversarial machine learning for missing data.
result Proposed models perform well even with short-term missing data and significantly outperform imputation with longer-term missing data.

In this paper, we present a reverberation removal approach for speaker verification, utilizing dual-label deep neural networks (DNNs). The networks perform feature mapping between the spectral features of reverberant and clean speech. Long short term memory recurrent neural networks (LSTMs) are trained to map corrupted…

2018-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper predicts Bitcoin prices using machine learning and sentiment analysis.

problem Predicting the future price of Bitcoin in USD.
method Applied supervised machine learning and sentiment analysis to Twitter and Reddit data.
result LSTM models with multi-feature analysis outperformed ARIMA models in predicting Bitcoin prices.

A new method forecasts hourly electricity prices considering product dynamics and limit order book signals.

problem High volatility and imbalance in power systems due to renewable energy and flexible demand.
method Incorporates short-term features from hourly and quarter-hourly products, including limit order book and neighboring product signals.
result Features from the limit order book are most influential, and neighboring product signals improve forecast accuracy.

New model estimates corporate defaults using pure jump processes, capturing extreme events.

problem Estimating corporate defaults using standard diffusion models that underestimate short-term probabilities.
method Introduced pure jump processes with negative jumps only, derived formulas, calibrated parameters, and implemented practical tools.
result Models redistribute credit risk towards shorter maturities, improving short-term default probability estimates.

Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of the power sector. Forecasting load at a fine granularity such as hourly loads of individual households is challenging due to higher volatility and inherent stochasticity. At the aggregate levels, such as monthly load at a grid, the uncerta…

2019-12-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Study examines short-term IVS dynamics using a model-independent approach.

problem Understanding the short-term behavior of implied volatility surface (IVS).
method Model-independent, distribution-based approach imposing cumulant conditions on asset log return distribution.
result Derives a quadratic expansion for implied volatility and asymptotic expressions for ATM skew and curvature.

ForecastGAN improves multi-horizon time series forecasting by integrating numerical and categorical features.

problem Limited performance of existing approaches in short-term and long-term forecasting.
method Decomposition, model selection, adversarial training.
result ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting.

LSTMs improve bond yield forecasting with unique signals.

problem Improving bond yield forecasting accuracy.
method Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks with sequence-to-sequence architectures and LSTM-LagLasso methodology.
result Univariate LSTM models with additional memory can achieve similar results as multivariate MLP models using exogenous information.

GNN-CL model improves financial fraud detection using graph neural networks and reinforcement learning.

problem Complex financial fraud detection with high false positive rates.
method Combines GNN, CNN, LSTM, and MLPS to analyze transaction patterns and uses reinforcement learning to filter out noise.
result GNN-CL outperforms existing methods in financial fraud detection, reducing false positives.

Study shows adding correlated features doesn't improve LSTM model interpretability for oil stocks.

problem Improving interpretability of LSTM models for predicting oil company stocks.
method Designed and trained Standard LSTM networks using various correlated datasets.
result Adding correlated features does not enhance LSTM model interpretability.

Study shows diverse data sources improve cryptocurrency forecasting models.

problem Improving cryptocurrency market forecasting accuracy.
method Integrating various data types, including on-chain metrics, traditional indices, and macroeconomic indicators.
result Data source diversity significantly enhances forecasting model performance.

The paper examines short-term volatilities in equity indexes using a ranking procedure.

problem Understanding short-term behaviors of implied volatility in equity markets.
method Using a ranking procedure to model equity index dynamics, the paper investigates the short-term volatilities of derivatives written on indexes.
result The models reconcile the long memory of volatilities and power law of ATM skews in equity markets.

Model combines long-term and short-term memory using conceptors.

problem Transfer between long-term and short-term memory.
method Recurrent neural network with gated reservoir for short-term memory and conceptors for long-term memory.
result Standard operations on conceptors allow combining long-term memories and describing their effect on short-term memory.

This paper explores four different visualization techniques for long short-term memory (LSTM) networks applied to continuous-valued time series. On the datasets analysed, we find that the best visualization technique is to learn an input deletion mask that optimally reduces the true class score. With a specific focus o…

2017-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Study causal financial signals for non-stationary markets, improving short-term forecasts.

problem Short-term forecasting in non-stationary financial markets under causal constraints.
method Construct causal signals from heterogeneous micro-features using causal centering, linear aggregation, Kalman filter, and forward-like operator.
result Causally constructed observables can exhibit substantial economic relevance in specific regimes but degrade under regime shifts.

Graph neural networks improve volatility forecasts and portfolio performance.

problem Improving volatility forecasting for better portfolio performance.
method Compared Heterogeneous Autoregressive and Long Short-Term Memory models with GraphSAGE models built on rolling correlation, sector, and Granger-causal graphs.
result GraphSAGE models with macro regime features outperform other models in terms of forecast accuracy, ranking quality, and portfolio Sharpe ratio.