We study the short-time asymptotics of conditional expectations of smooth and non-smooth functions of a (discontinuous) Ito semimartingale; we compute the leading term in the asymptotics in terms of the local characteristics of the semimartingale. We derive in particular the asymptotic behavior of call options with sho…
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48 results for “short lead time”
Sector-wise analysis of Indian stock market: Long and short-term risk and stability analysisq-fin.ST
The paper analyzes Indian stock sectors using multifractal analysis for long and short-term investment.
problem Investment risk and stability in Indian stock sectors.
method Sector-wise multifractal analysis of Bombay Stock Exchange, India, over short and long time scales.
result Long-term investment in stable sectors is more profitable, while sectors with large fluctuations may lead to downturns.
Short-term incentives lead to riskier trading strategies.
problem Optimal execution with performance barriers.
method Analyzes the impact of short-term performance incentives on trading behavior.
result Short-term incentives result in more aggressive but less risky trading strategies in the short term, but poorer performance over long periods.
The study addresses overlooked data-generating processes in time-series asset pricing.
problem The literature on time-series asset pricing overlooks the data-generating processes for factors expressed in return differences.
method The study proposes a new definition of returns and compound returns for factors, and uses OLS with net returns for single-index models.
result OLS with net returns for single-index models leads to inflated alphas, exaggerated t-values, and overestimated Sharpe ratios.
Study analyzes Airbnb booking lead times during global crises using a new metric.
problem Disruptions in booking behaviors during global crises affect forecasting accuracy.
method Normalized L1 (Manhattan) distance to assess lead time divergences.
result Identified two-phase disruption: abrupt change at pandemic onset followed by partial recovery.
TimeBridge addresses non-stationarity in long-term time series forecasting.
problem Non-stationarity in multivariate time series leads to spurious regressions and obscures long-term relationships.
method TimeBridge segments series into patches, applying Integrated Attention for short-term non-stationarity and Cointegrated Attention for long-term cointegration.
result TimeBridge achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting.
We present techniques for effective Gaussian process (GP) modelling of multiple short time series. These problems are common when applying GP models independently to each gene in a gene expression time series data set. Such sets typically contain very few time points. Naive application of common GP modelling techniques…
NAPLES resolves lead-lag analysis challenges in non-synchronous high-frequency data.
problem Challenges in analyzing lead-lag effects due to non-synchronous observations and high-frequency data.
method NAPLES (Negative And Positive lead-lag EStimator) resolves these challenges.
result NAPLES has a strong correlation with actual lead-lag effects, including those triggered by macroeconomic announcements.
Time-dependent lead-lag relationship between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange ratesq-fin.ST
We employ the thermal optimal path method to explore both the long-term and short-term interaction patterns between the onshore CNY and offshore CNH exchange rates (2012-2015). For the daily data, the CNY and CNH exchange rates show a weak alternate lead-lag structure in most of the time periods. When CNY and CNH displ…
Mechanical devices such as engines, vehicles, aircrafts, etc., are typically instrumented with numerous sensors to capture the behavior and health of the machine. However, there are often external factors or variables which are not captured by sensors leading to time-series which are inherently unpredictable. For insta…
The paper develops a method to predict the latent deterioration phase in limit order books before stress is observed.
problem Limit order books can transition rapidly from stable to stressed conditions, making it difficult to detect the latent deterioration phase.
method The paper formalizes a three-regime causal data-generating process and proposes a trigger-based detector combining MAX aggregation of complementary signal channels, a rising-edge condition, and adaptive thresholding.
result The proposed method achieves mean lead-time of +18.6 timesteps with perfect precision and moderate coverage, outperforming classical change-point and microstructure baselines.
Indeterminacy in foreign exchange marketcond-mat.stat-mech
We discuss price variations distributions in foreign exchange markets, characterizing them both in calendar and business time frameworks. The price dynamics is found to be the result of two distinct processes, a multi-variance diffusion and an error process. The presence of the latter, which dominates at short time sca…
Recent advances in deep learning motivate the use of deep neural networks in Internet-of-Things (IoT) applications. These networks are modelled after signal processing in the human brain, thereby leading to significant advantages at perceptual tasks such as vision and speech recognition. IoT applications, however, ofte…
We address the problem of portfolio optimization under the simplest coherent risk measure, i.e. the expected shortfall. As it is well known, one can map this problem into a linear programming setting. For some values of the external parameters, when the available time series is too short, the portfolio optimization is …
The multiple fundamental frequency detection problem and the source separation problem from a single-channel signal containing multiple oscillatory components and a nonstationary noise are both challenging tasks. To extract the fetal electrocardiogram (ECG) from a single-lead maternal abdominal ECG, we face both challe…
The paper proposes a method to identify high-quality financial patterns using entropy.
problem Extracting reliable short-term patterns from noisy financial data.
method Entropy-assisted framework for clustering and pruning patterns.
result High-quality patterns with low local entropy and historical profitability.
Paper proposes a method for predicting any quantile of short-term electricity demand.
problem Uncertainty in power systems due to multiple factors.
method Proposes a novel general approach for distributional forecasting of short-term electricity demand.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art distributional forecasting results for short-term electricity demand.
Bidirectional Quaternion Long-Short Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks for Speech Recognitioneess.AS
Recurrent neural networks (RNN) are at the core of modern automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. In particular, long-short term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks have achieved state-of-the-art results in many speech recognition tasks, due to their efficient representation of long and short term dependencies …
We apply the Zipf power law to financial time series of WIG20 index daily changes (open-close). Thanks to the mapping of time series signal into the sequence of 2k+1 'spin-like' states, where k=0, 1/2, 1, 3/2, ..., we are able to describe any time series increments, with almost arbitrary accuracy, as the one of such 's…
On the origin of the Epps effectphysics.soc-ph
The Epps effect, the decrease of correlations between stock returns for short time windows, was traced back to the trading asynchronicity and to the occasional lead-lag relation between the prices. We study pairs of stocks where the latter is negligible and confirm the importance of asynchronicity but point out that al…
Shorting in Speculative Marketsq-fin.MF
We propose a continuous-time model of trading with heterogeneous beliefs. Risk-neutral agents face quadratic costs-of-carry on positions and thus their marginal valuations decrease with the size of their position, as it would be the case for risk-averse agents. In the equilibrium models of heterogeneous beliefs that fo…
Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in…
A graph model improves short text classification by integrating sentence relationships.
problem Sparse features in short text classification due to limited text length.
method PathWalk model combining graph networks and short sentences.
result PathWalk achieves state-of-the-art results on four datasets.
BrainCast predicts whole-brain fMRI time series from short scans.
problem Short scans reduce fMRI data quality and statistical power.
method Spatio-temporal forecasting framework for fMRI time series.
result BrainCast improves fMRI time series quality and prediction.
Study tests rough fractional volatility model across different time scales, revealing new volatility patterns.
problem Testing robustness of rough fractional volatility model over various time scales.
method Used large dataset on FX rates, included smoothing and measurement errors, analyzed log-log plots of realized variance increments.
result Found new stylized facts in volatility patterns, including convexity and nonlinear behavior.
Large size models are implemented in recently ASR system to deal with complex speech recognition problems. The num- ber of parameters in these models makes them hard to deploy, especially on some resource-short devices such as car tablet. Besides this, at most of time, ASR system is used to deal with real-time problem …
Study compares short vs long strategies for equity factors, finds short strategy better.
problem Determining the best market-neutral implementation of equity factors.
method Revisited the relative predictability of short and long legs, diversification, and costs.
result Long-Short implementation yields superior risk-adjusted returns compared to Hedged Long-Only.
In our previous study we have presented an approach to studying lead--lag effect in financial markets using information and network theories. Methodology presented there, as well as previous studies using Pearson's correlation for the same purpose, approached the concept of lead--lag effect in a naive way. In this pape…
In this paper, we investigate two hyperbolic flows obtained by adding forcing terms in direction of the position vector to the hyperbolic mean curvature flows in \cite{klw,hdl}. For the first hyperbolic flow, as in \cite{klw}, by using support function, we reduce it to a hyperbolic Monge-Ampre equation …
In complex systems such as turbulent flows and financial markets, the dynamics in long and short time-lags, signaled by Gaussian and fat-tailed statistics, respectively, calls for a unified description. To address this issue we analyze a real dataset, namely, price fluctuations, in a wide range of temporal scales to em…
We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account t…
Paper develops adaptive models for robust energy forecasting with missing data.
problem Operational models assume complete data; missing data can degrade forecast accuracy.
method Adaptive robust optimization and adversarial machine learning for missing data.
result Proposed models perform well even with short-term missing data and significantly outperform imputation with longer-term missing data.
Lead/lag relationships are an important stylized fact at high frequency. Some assets follow the path of others with a small time lag. We provide indicators to measure this phenomenon using tick-by-tick data. Strongly asymmetric cross-correlation functions are empirically observed, especially in the future/stock case. W…
High-dimensional curved diffusions show abrupt convergence at a critical time.
problem Understanding abrupt convergence in high-dimensional curved diffusions.
method Functional inequalities and spectral rigidity.
result Abrupt convergence (cutoff) occurs in high dimensions, linked to spectral rigidity.
This paper explores four different visualization techniques for long short-term memory (LSTM) networks applied to continuous-valued time series. On the datasets analysed, we find that the best visualization technique is to learn an input deletion mask that optimally reduces the true class score. With a specific focus o…
The recent financial crisis has led to so-called multi-curve models for the term structure. Here we study a multi-curve extension of short rate models where, in addition to the short rate itself, we introduce short rate spreads. In particular, we consider a Gaussian factor model where the short rate and the spreads are…
Optimal model selection for forecasting large collections of short time series using latent space.
problem Challenges in choosing among multiple forecasting methods for large, high-dimensional time series with limited data.
method Combining low-rank temporal matrix factorization with optimal model selection using cross-validation.
result Forecasting latent factors leads to significant performance gains compared to direct uni-variate model application.
New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some resemblance to "technical analysis". The results are applied to a typical object of financial engineering, namely the forecast of foreign exchange rates, via a "model-free" setting, i.e., via repeated identifi…
Reaction-Diffusion-Branching Models of Stock Price Fluctuationscond-mat.stat-mech
Several models of stock trading [P. Bak et al, Physica A {\bf 246}, 430 (1997)] are analyzed in analogy with one-dimensional, two-species reaction-diffusion-branching processes. Using heuristic and scaling arguments, we show that the short-time market price variation is subdiffusive with a Hurst exponent . Biase…
An Exponential Factorization Machine with Percentage Error Minimization to Retail Sales Forecastingcs.LG
New model predicts sales of new products with short life cycles.
problem Forecasting sales of new products with short lead times and life cycles.
method Developed an exponential factorization machine (EFM) to consider attributes and pairwise interactions.
result EFM model outperforms existing models in terms of MAPE and MAE.
From Temporal to Contemporaneous Iterative Causal Discovery in the Presence of Latent Confounderscs.AI
Algorithm learns causal structures from time-series data, reducing tests for temporal vs. contemporaneous relations.
problem Learning causal structures from time-series data with latent confounders.
method Constraint-based algorithm that refines a causal graph by learning temporal relations first, then contemporaneous ones.
result Reduces the number of statistical tests and improves accuracy for synthetic and real-world data.
In this article, we consider the small-time asymptotics of options on a \emph{Leveraged Exchange-Traded Fund} (LETF) when the underlying Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) exhibits both local volatility and jumps of either finite or infinite activity. Our main results are closed-form expressions for the leading order terms of …
Vehicle recognition and classification have broad applications, ranging from traffic flow management to military target identification. We demonstrate an unsupervised method for automated identification of moving vehicles from roadside audio sensors. Using a short-time Fourier transform to decompose audio signals, we t…
In this paper, we give the first detailed proof of the short-time existence of Deane Yang's local Ricci flow. Then using the local Ricci flow, we prove short-time existence of the Ricci flow on noncompact manifolds, whose Ricci curvature has global lower bound and sectional curvature has only local average integral bou…
In this short note we outline a simple probabilistic proof of the Gauss-Bonnet formula for compact Riemannian manifolds with boundary, which adapts to this setting an argument due to Hsu \cite{Hs1,Hs2} in the closed case. The new technical ingredient is the Feynman-Kac formula for differential forms satisfying absolute…
Novel LSTM network predicts pulsar timing residuals with few-shot data.
problem Predicting pulsar timing residuals with limited data.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network optimized with model-agnostic meta-learning and particle swarm optimization.
result Robust generalization and accurate predictions across high-frequency test domains with minimal data.
The paper presents the comparative study of the nature of stock markets in short-term and long-term time scales with and without structural break in the stock data. Structural break point has been identified by applying Zivot and Andrews structural trend break model to break the original time series (TSO) into time ser…
Study shows different price correlations in European electricity markets.
problem Stochastic variability and temporal correlation in electricity prices.
method Comparison of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Kramers--Moyal equation.
result Intraday 15 minutes spot markets show strong negative correlations, unlike other markets.