A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper confirms two groups of gamma-ray bursts using a new nonparametric metric.
New algorithm clusters GRBs into two groups: short and long duration.
New algorithms recover differential equations from short bursts of data.
Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external perturbation to the system. In this paper we propose a novel procedure for the detection…
Two classes of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), short and long, have been determined without any doubts, and are usually ascribed to different progenitors, yet these classes overlap for a variety of descriptive parameters. A subsample of 46 long and 22 short GRBs with estimated Hurst Exponents (HEs), complemented by mi…
MKPN predicts varying-sized kernels for burst image denoising.
Noise is an inherent issue of low-light image capture, one which is exacerbated on mobile devices due to their narrow apertures and small sensors. One strategy for mitigating noise in a low-light situation is to increase the shutter time of the camera, thus allowing each photosite to integrate more light and decrease n…
A new method uses burst and inter-burst duration to test long-range memory in financial markets.
News sentiment in U.S. economic newspapers has become more persistent over 45 years.
In the aftermath of the burst of the ``new economy'' bubble in 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively reduced short-term rates yields in less than two years from 6.5% to 1.25% in an attempt to coax forth a stronger recovery of the US economy. But, there is growing apprehension that this is creating a new bubble in real…
Patients with epilepsy can manifest short, sub-clinical epileptic "bursts" in addition to full-blown clinical seizures. We believe the relationship between these two classes of events---something not previously studied quantitatively---could yield important insights into the nature and intrinsic dynamics of seizures. A…
We address the problem of long-range memory in the financial markets. There are two conceptually different ways to reproduce power-law decay of auto-correlation function: using fractional Brownian motion as well as non-linear stochastic differential equations. In this contribution we address this problem by analyzing e…
PINNs solve neuronal parameter and state estimation problems with limited data.
Model optimal liquidation in asset bubbles with varying entry times.
It is widely accepted that there is strong persistence in the volatility of financial time series. The origin of the observed persistence, or long-range memory, is still an open problem as the observed phenomenon could be a spurious effect. Earlier we have proposed the consentaneous model of the financial markets based…
The origin of the long-range memory in the non-equilibrium systems is still an open problem as the phenomenon can be reproduced using models based on Markov processes. In these cases a notion of spurious memory is introduced. A good example of Markov processes with spurious memory is stochastic process driven by a non-…
In online social media systems users are not only posting, consuming, and resharing content, but also creating new and destroying existing connections in the underlying social network. While each of these two types of dynamics has individually been studied in the past, much less is known about the connection between th…
This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of methodology developed by Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this dynamics is close to the one of the "bubbles" studied by Sornette and that the most probable timing of the "burst of the gold bubble" is April - June 2011. The obtained resul…
Quarter-hour market bursts predict algorithmic trading and returns in crypto futures.
Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Faceb…
The minute fluctuations of of S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices display Boltzmann statistics over a wide range of positive as well as negative returns, thus allowing us to define a {\em market temperature} for either sign. With increasing time the sharp Boltzmann peak broadens into a Gaussian whose volatility measure…
Develops LSTM for predicting neuronal dynamics over long time-horizons.
We investigate large changes, bursts, of the continuous stochastic signals, when the exponent of multiplicativity is higher than one. Earlier we have proposed a general nonlinear stochastic model which can be transformed into Bessel process with known first hitting (first passage) time statistics. Using these results w…
Develops a hybrid MtFA approach for high-dimensional data clustering.
New deep learning model estimates scattering timescale of FRBs efficiently.
TiK-means extends K-means for skewed groups, revealing structured clusters.
Dr.VOT measures both positive and negative VOTs accurately in natural speech.
Proposes a new birth-death process for better modeling of population dynamics.
Method learns model for unknown stochastic system from data.
Study uses multidimensional SE-NBD process to analyze default portfolios and identify shock amplification.
In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the statistical properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We selected 1200 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily stock prices for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corr…
The paper compares LSTM and ARIMA for predicting and classifying network traffic.
Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).
Self-Organizing Maps provide quick flood predictions for real-time decision making.
Method extracts stochastic systems with Lévy noise from data.
New method extracts stochastic laws from data, including Lévy noise.
Commonly-used clustering algorithms usually find ellipsoidal, spherical or other regular-structured clusters, but are more challenged when the underlying groups lack formal structure or definition. Syncytial clustering is the name that we introduce for methods that merge groups obtained from standard clustering algorit…
In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We focus attention on the relative price defined as , where is the initial price. We selected approximately 3200 stocks traded on the Japanese Stock Exchange and formed a statistical ensem…
ResQ uses reinforcement learning to optimize rescue efforts in disaster scenarios.
Efficiently simulates slow dynamics of high-dimensional stochastic systems.
Efficiently clusters incomplete data without imputation or full EM, faster and more accurate.
It is widely believed that fluctuations in transaction volume, as reflected in the number of transactions and to a lesser extent their size, are the main cause of clustered volatility. Under this view bursts of rapid or slow price diffusion reflect bursts of frequent or less frequent trading, which cause both clustered…
Paper proposes using CNN for stock trading with data normalization.
Divestment from fossil fuels can accelerate climate policy, study finds.
A taxonomy of large financial crashes proposed in the literature locates the burst of speculative bubbles due to endogenous causes in the framework of extreme stock market crashes, defined as falls of market prices that are outlier with respect to the bulk of drawdown price movement distribution. This paper goes on dee…
Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis RQA) are signal numerical analysis methodologies able to work with non linear dynamical systems and non stationarity. Moreover they well evidence changes in the states of a dynamical system. It is shown that RP and RQA detect the critical regime in financial i…
To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift/BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive proce…
Using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of correlations matrices of some of the main financial market indices in the world, we show that high volatility of markets is directly linked with strong correlations between them. This means that markets tend to behave as one during great crashes. In order to do so, we investiga…