Develops a minimax optimal estimator for system stability under distribution shift.
problem Ensuring system reliability under changes in the underlying environment.
method Minimax optimal estimation of stability defined in terms of acceptable performance degradation.
result Characterizes the minimax convergence rate and demonstrates practical utility.
New stability results for configuration space cohomology.
problem Characterizing manifolds with stable cohomology of configuration spaces.
method Analyzing the cohomology of configuration spaces of manifolds, distinguishing between strong and shifted stability.
result Characterization of manifolds with stable cohomology after a shift of degree.
Proposes a new measure to evaluate stability of statistical parameters under distributional shifts.
problem Difficulty in transferring knowledge across data sets due to distributional changes.
method Introduces a measure of instability quantifying sensitivity of statistical parameters to Kullback-Leibler divergence and directional shifts.
result The proposed measure can elucidate the type of shifts a parameter is sensitive to and improve estimation accuracy under shifted distributions.
A method to remove mean-shift noise from PCA using knockoffs.
problem High sensitivity of PCA to mean-shift contamination in high-dimensional data.
method Introducing knockoff mean-shift perturbation to separate and remove mean-shift components from PCA.
result The mean-shift spikes are spectrally separable from stable eigenvalues, allowing for robust PCA.
Improves prediction stability with model misspecification and distribution shift.
problem Inaccurate parameter estimation and instability of prediction in real-world applications.
method Proposes Decorrelated Weighting Regression (DWR) algorithm to optimize weights for samples and variables.
result Significantly improves accuracy of parameter estimation and prediction stability.
Stable Adversarial Learning improves robustness to distributional shifts.
problem Vulnerability of machine learning algorithms to distributional shifts.
method SAL algorithm that constructs a practical uncertainty set and conducts differentiated robustness optimization based on covariate stability.
result The proposed method uniformly improves performance across unknown distributional shifts.
Proposes a stability evaluation criterion for learning models using distributional perturbations.
problem Ensuring reliable deployment of learning models in out-of-sample environments.
method Uses optimal transport discrepancy with moment constraints to quantify minimal perturbation required for model deterioration.
result Validates the practical utility of the stability evaluation criterion across various real-world applications.
Proposes BSSP to stabilize predictions in biased data.
problem Distribution shift between training and test data causes prediction instability.
method Balance-subsampled stable prediction (BSSP) algorithm based on fractional factorial design.
result Significantly improves prediction stability across unknown test data.
The paper tackles fairness in machine learning models under covariate shift.
problem Learning fair models for test sets with different distributions.
method Feature selection based on causal graph to estimate accuracy and fairness metrics.
result The approach ensures stable models in terms of both accuracy and fairness.
Proposes a framework to assess model robustness to dataset shifts.
problem Evaluating model robustness to changes in setting or population.
method Derives a debiased estimator for analyzing performance on worst-case distributions.
result Demonstrates the estimator can account for realistic shifts in complex distributions.
M-FISHER detects and adapts to streaming data shifts with statistical validity and stability.
problem Detecting and adapting to distributional shifts in streaming data.
method Constructs an exponential martingale from non-conformity scores and applies Ville's inequality for detection. Fisher-preconditioned updates for adaptation.
result Establishes M-FISHER as a principled approach for robust, anytime-valid detection and geometrically stable adaptation.
Unified framework for analyzing stable learning algorithms across different dataset shifts.
problem Analyzing and comparing stability of learning algorithms across various dataset shifts.
method Causal graphical representation to express dataset shifts and a hierarchy of operators to disable shift-causing edges.
result Established conditions for optimal performance and derived new algorithms for finding stable distributions.
Paper tackles distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
problem Distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
method Linear structural causal model, invariant covariate representations, data-driven representation learning method.
result Optimizes for a lower-dimensional linear subspace and a prediction model confined to that subspace, achieving nearly ideal gap between target and source risk.
Partially performative prediction studies how predictive models influence future data.
problem Distribution shift in predictive models due to endogenous and exogenous factors.
method Generalizing performative prediction to capture both endogenous and exogenous sources of distribution shift.
result Developed online analogues of performative stability and optimality for partially performative environments.
Conformal prediction fails under severe feature turnover in COVID-19 supply chain tasks.
problem Dealing with distribution shift in conformal prediction models.
method Using COVID-19 as a natural experiment across 8 supply chain tasks, analyzing SHAP explanations.
result Coverage drops vary widely (0% to 86.7%) and correlate with single-feature dependence.
Workplace communications became more siloed during the pandemic, reducing stability within communities.
problem Understanding changes in intra-organizational communication networks during the pandemic.
method Analyzed aggregated email metadata from 4,361 organizations worldwide over 24 months.
result Organizations became more siloed in 2020, with decreased stability within silos.
DORO improves DRO's performance and stability in tasks with subpopulation shift.
problem DRO's poor performance and instability in tasks with subpopulation shift.
method DORO, a refined risk function that prevents overfitting to outliers.
result DORO improves DRO's performance and stability on large modern datasets.
The paper proves a new method to improve generalization in covariate-shift scenarios.
problem Improving performance on test distributions that differ from training distributions.
method Independence-driven importance weighting algorithms for feature selection.
result Theoretical proof that these algorithms can identify optimal variables for covariate-shift generalization.
The paper addresses instability in CNNs' first layer by proving max pooling's shift invariance.
problem Instability in CNNs' first layer, leading to sensitivity to small input shifts.
method Establishing conditions for max pooling's shift invariance and deriving a measure of stability.
result Max pooling approximates a nearly shift-invariant complex modulus under certain conditions.
CCI combines Bayesian and gradient boosting to create fair, reliable credit risk scores.
problem Tackles high-stakes lending decisions with changing data distributions and fairness constraints.
method Combines Bayesian neural risk scorer and fairness-constrained gradient boosting with shift-aware fusion.
result CCI achieves best trade-off between discrimination, calibration, stability, and fairness.
Explicit BCH series radii found for special Banach-Malcev shift algebras.
problem Finding convergence radii for BCH series in specific algebraic structures.
method Established explicit convergence radii using continuity estimates and algebraic properties.
result Explicit formula for convergence radii derived and validated for various shift algebras.
Study examines USD exchange rate dynamics using Kramers-Moyal expansion.
problem Understanding and predicting exchange rate instability.
method Kramers-Moyal expansion and Fokker-Planck formalism applied to log-return data.
result Identifies a stabilizing linear drift and nonlinear diffusion term in exchange rate fluctuations.
This paper extends performative prediction to nonlinear cases.
problem Performative prediction's effectiveness is limited by linear assumptions in real-world applications.
method Formulated a maximum margin approach loss function and extended it to nonlinear spaces using kernel methods.
result Derived conditions for performative stability in both linear and nonlinear cases.
FADE adapts machine learning models to evolving data efficiently.
problem Sequential covariate shift in dynamic environments.
method FADE uses Fisher information geometry for robust learning under SCS.
result FADE achieves up to 19% higher accuracy under severe shifts.
Paper proves linear convergence of SCMS algorithm for directional data.
problem Identifying density ridges in directional data.
method Generalized SCMS algorithm to directional data, derived from SCGA with adaptive step size.
result Linear convergence of the proposed directional SCMS algorithm.
A new convolution method stabilizes GANs by learning coarse structures first.
problem Mode collapse in GANs during training.
method Soft octave convolutions that split filters into high and low frequency parts, shifting weight updates.
result Reduces mode collapse and artifacts in generated images.
New framework for gravitational perturbations of Kerr spacetimes, focusing on stability.
problem Stability of Kerr spacetimes to gravitational perturbations.
method New geometric framework with tailored null frames and gauge, reformulating Einstein equations.
result Derivation of linearised vacuum Einstein equations in the new framework.
New framework for predicting decisions that influence their own outcomes.
problem Predictions that affect the outcomes they predict, leading to undesirable distribution shift.
method Risk minimization framework combining statistics, game theory, and causality.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for retraining to converge to a performatively stable point of minimal loss.
It is shown that bootstrap approximations of an estimator which is based on a continuous operator from the set of Borel probability measures defined on a compact metric space into a complete separable metric space is stable in the sense of qualitative robustness. Support vector machines based on shifted loss functions …
New proof of Schwarzschild stability using geometric gauge.
problem Linear stability of Schwarzschild spacetime under gravitational perturbations.
method Employing a new geometric gauge and exploiting the structure of transport equations.
result Established both orbital and asymptotic stability for linearised quantities.
Study special Lagrangian sections in Calabi-Yau threefolds, showing stability conditions imply isomorphism to special Lagrangians.
problem Understanding stability conditions on Fukaya-Seidel categories of Calabi-Yau threefolds.
method Analyzing sections of special Lagrangian fibrations, constructing Bridgeland stability conditions, and relating to deformed Hermitian Yang-Mills connections.
result Semistability of L[2] implies isomorphism to special Lagrangian sections. We collect and analyze the data for working time, life expectancy, and the pair output and infrastructure of industrializing nations. During S-functional recovery from disaster the pair's time shifts yield 25 years for the infrastructure's physical lifetime. At G7 level the per capita outputs converge and the time shif…
Framework quantifies financial NLP robustness under regime shifts.
problem Semantic and causal drift in financial news narratives.
method Four metrics: FCAS, PCS, TSV, NLICS.
result Transformer models are more affected by semantic drift.
New method for valid prediction sets in high-dimensional covariate shifts.
problem Valid prediction sets in high-dimensional covariate shifts.
method Likelihood-ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm.
result LR-QR constructs valid prediction sets with desired coverage in target domain.
Paper analyzes GCNN sensitivity to probabilistic graph perturbations.
problem Investigating how GCNNs handle probabilistic graph errors.
method Establishes error bounds and linear relationships between GSO perturbations and GCNN outputs.
result GCNNs maintain stability under graph edge perturbations if GSO errors are bounded.
Stable health predictions need deconfounding test set features.
problem Stability of predictions in health machine learning is compromised by selection biases.
method Deconfounding the test set features improves prediction stability across different environments.
result Improved stability achieved by deconfounding test set features.
EoS selectively shapes learning, affecting some groups more than others.
problem EoS affects learning differently across the data distribution.
method Branching intervention to enter or exit EoS regime, controlled perturbation to isolate mechanisms.
result EoS redistributes learning, amplifying progress on some groups and suppressing others.
This paper studies stability of the exponential utility maximization when there are small variations on agent's utility function. Two settings are considered. First, in a general semimartingale model where random endowments are present, a sequence of utilities defined on R converges to the exponential utility. Under a …
The paper computes torsion invariants for groups acting on complexes.
problem Computing torsion invariants for groups acting on complexes.
method Analyzes residually finite groups acting cocompactly on contractible complexes with specific stabilizers.
result Torsion limits to the torsion of the boundary subcomplex, independent of the chain of subgroups.
The Runge-Kutta-Legendre scheme improves pricing American options and other derivatives.
problem Pricing American options and other derivatives with improved accuracy and stability.
method Runge-Kutta-Legendre finite difference scheme applied to Black-Scholes and Heston models.
result Improved convergence and stability compared to existing schemes.
The paper proves geometric inequalities and their stabilities for curves in hyperbolic space.
problem Geometric inequalities and their stabilities for curves in hyperbolic space.
method Curve flow for shifted principal curvatures, Heintze-Karcher type inequality for h-convex curves.
result Geometric inequalities and their stabilities for curves in hyperbolic space.
The study analyzes numerical stability in large language models using mixed-precision arithmetic.
problem Numerical stability of large language models using low-precision arithmetic.
method Developed a mixed-precision analysis of transformer inference, deriving bounds for condition numbers and forward error.
result Established that numerical stability is determined by the interplay between weight magnitude and the growth of the residual stream.
Transfer learning framework for fragility modeling under domain shift and class imbalance
problem Data gaps in structural fragility modeling
method Transfer learning
result Improves failure detection and predictive stability in low-data regimes
The paper analyzes how mutable blockchain protocols affect miner behavior and strategic stability.
problem The mutability of blockchain protocols undermines long-term planning and cooperative equilibria.
method Integrates Austrian capital theory with repeated game theory to examine miner behavior under different institutional conditions.
result Effective time preference increases when protocol rules are mutable, leading to political rent-seeking and undermining strategic coherence.
Survey of performative prediction, a machine learning setup causing distribution shifts.
problem Machine learning models causing shifts in the environment they predict.
method Classification of performative prediction settings based on distribution map information.
result Introduction of new solution concepts and theoretical analyses.
Machine learning detects tipping points in complex systems.
problem Detecting abrupt shifts in complex dynamical systems.
method Equilibrium-informed neural networks (EINNs) trained on candidate equilibrium states.
result EINNs can identify critical thresholds in nonlinear systems.
Let M be a smooth manifold and F be a vector field on M. My article ["Smooth shifts along trajectories of flows", Topol. Appl. 130 (2003) 183-204, arXiv:math/0106199] concerning the homotopy types of the group of diffeomorphisms preserving orbits of F contains two errors. They imply that the principal statement…
We define a homology HN for closed braids by applying Khovanov and Rozansky's matrix factorization construction with potential axN+1. Up to a grading shift, H0 is the HOMFLYPT homology defined in arXiv:math/0505056. We demonstrate that, for N≥1, HN is a $\mathbb{Z}_2\o…