Unified framework certifies predictor performance under distribution shift.
problem Certifying predictor performance under distribution shift.
method Unified framework with explicit inequalities, sound verification, and identifiable structure.
result Explicit upper bound on excess risk under shift.
Adapts example weights to optimize black-box metrics.
problem Optimizing metrics defined by black-box functions.
method Adaptive example weighting and iterative post-shifting.
result Improves classification performance compared to baselines.
New framework identifies worst-case shifts for predictive resource allocation models.
problem Identifying harmful shifts in predictive models for resource allocation.
method Hierarchical model structure and submodular optimization for worst-case loss.
result Empirical evidence shows divergent worst-case shifts identified by different metrics.
Framework quantifies financial NLP robustness under regime shifts.
problem Semantic and causal drift in financial news narratives.
method Four metrics: FCAS, PCS, TSV, NLICS.
result Transformer models are more affected by semantic drift.
In safety-critical applications of machine learning, it is often important to abstain from making predictions on low confidence examples. Standard abstention methods tend to be focused on optimizing top-k accuracy, but in many applications, accuracy is not the metric of interest. Further, label shift (a shift in class …
New centrality-based graph shift operators improve graph neural networks.
problem Improving graph neural networks by enhancing graph shift operators.
method Proposed Centrality Graph Shift Operators (CGSOs) using global centrality metrics.
result CGSOs lead to improved performance in graph neural networks on real-world datasets.
Paper introduces a new metric to select optimal Graph Shift Operator for GNNs.
problem Empirical selection of Graph Shift Operator remains challenging.
method Introduces a novel alignment gain metric connecting geometric distortion to generalization bounds via spectral proxy.
result Provides a principled, computation-efficient criterion to rank and select optimal GSO.
This paper improves conformal prediction for robust interval estimation under distribution shifts.
problem Robustness of conformal prediction under distribution shifts.
method Modeling distribution shifts using Levy-Prokhorov (LP) ambiguity sets, which capture both local and global perturbations.
result Constructs robust conformal prediction intervals that remain valid under distribution shifts.
New example solves topological dynamics problem.
problem Embedding compact metric space into cubical shift.
method Borsuk-Ulam theorem, p-adic completions, equivariant Sullivan conjecture.
result Existence of a compact metric space not embeddable into a cubical shift.
Study examines Indian equity mutual funds' investment style and risk-shifting.
problem Understanding how Indian equity mutual funds' investment styles affect their returns.
method Estimating size and style beta coefficients, identifying breakpoints, analyzing investment styles, and assessing risk-shifting intensity.
result Funds can enhance returns by shifting to high-return styles like Small Value and Small Blend.
The paper proposes a method to assess when automated predictions are reliable.
problem Ensuring reliability and safety of automated decision-making in machine learning.
method Clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids, defining a safety threshold based on these distances.
result The proposed metric can efficiently determine when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred.
Study evaluates how well question-answering models generalize to new data types.
problem Generalization of question-answering models to new data types.
method Constructed new test sets from different domains and evaluated models' performance.
result Models show significant performance drops when tested on new data types.
Paper introduces DRM for selecting robust CATE estimators.
problem Selecting CATE estimators without counterfactual outcomes.
method Distributionally Robust Metric (DRM) for CATE estimator selection.
result DRM selects robust CATE estimators robust to distribution shift.
Theory of Newtonian dynamical systems admitting normal shift of hypersurfaces was first developed for the case of Riemannian manifolds. Recently it was generalized for manifolds geometric equipment of which is given by some regular Lagrangian or, equivalently, by some regular Hamiltonian dynamical system. In present pa…
Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from observational data and in unsupervised domain adaptation. We pose both of these…
CoDAG combines domain adaptation and generalization for unsupervised continual domain shift learning.
problem Acquiring knowledge in unsupervised continual domain shift learning.
method Complementary Domain Adaptation and Generalization (CoDAG) framework.
result CoDAG outperforms state-of-the-art models in all datasets and evaluation metrics.
We show how to lift a Riemannian metric and almost symplectic form on a manifold to a Riemannian structure on a canonically associated supermanifold known as the antitangent or shifted tangent bundle. We view this construction as a generalisation of Sasaki's construction of a Riemannian metric on the tangent bundle of …
A Lie group has a unique metric when viewed as a flat absolute parallelism.
problem Understanding different metrics on Lie groups and their curvature properties.
method Shifted perspective of viewing Lie groups as flat absolute parallelisms.
result Lie groups have a canonical metric when viewed in this new way.
In this paper, by modifying the argument shift method,we prove Liouville integrability of geodesic flows of normal metrics (invariant Einstein metrics) on the Ledger-Obata n-symmetric spaces $K^n/\diag(K)$, where K is a semisimple (respectively, simple) compact Lie group.
We give a topological condition for a generic sliced space to be globally hyperbolic, without any hypothesis on the lapse function, shift function and spatial metric.
A new framework detects adverse dataset shifts using outlier scores.
problem False alarms in dataset shift tests.
method Outlier scores to compare contamination rates at varying thresholds.
result Reduces the sensitivity to minor differences in predictive performance.
This paper improves confidence measurement in deep metric learning models.
problem Measuring confidence in deep metric learning models is challenging.
method Approximates class distributions using Gaussian kernel smoothing and calibrates the confidence metric.
result Improves generalization and robustness of deep metric learning models.
The paper analyzes how machine learning models perform under covariate shift, especially when the feature shift in x is larger than that in y.
problem Performance of machine learning models under covariate shift with heterogeneous feature changes.
method Empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, fit on a training distribution, evaluated on a test distribution with covariate shift. result ERM is more resilient to heterogeneous covariate shifts when the class F is simpler than G. Supervised learning with large scale labeled datasets and deep layered models has made a paradigm shift in diverse areas in learning and recognition. However, this approach still suffers generalization issues under the presence of a domain shift between the training and the test data distribution. In this regard, unsup…
This paper presents a computational model for conceptual shifts, based on a novelty metric applied to a vector representation generated through deep learning. This model is integrated into a co-creative design system, which enables a partnership between an AI agent and a human designer interacting through a sketching c…
New deep learning method improves 4D Flow MRI super-resolution under domain shift.
problem Domain shift in low-resolution 4D Flow MRI data.
method Distributional deep learning framework for domain generalization.
result Framework significantly outperforms traditional methods in real data applications.
It is shown that bootstrap approximations of an estimator which is based on a continuous operator from the set of Borel probability measures defined on a compact metric space into a complete separable metric space is stable in the sense of qualitative robustness. Support vector machines based on shifted loss functions …
Estimates modes and ridges in mixed Euclidean and directional spaces.
problem Estimating local modes and density ridges in product spaces combining Euclidean and directional metrics.
method Extends mean shift algorithm to product spaces, addressing challenges in generalization.
result Established convergence of the proposed methods and demonstrated effectiveness on real-world datasets.
GOPSA optimizes EEG data for cross-site age prediction, improving performance on multiple metrics.
problem Predictive shifts in EEG data from different sites and participants.
method Geodesic Optimization for Predictive Shift Adaptation (GOPSA) on the SPD manifold.
result Significantly higher performance on age prediction metrics compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Study quantifies distribution shifts and uncertainties to improve machine learning model robustness.
problem Distribution shifts between training and test datasets impact model generalization and robustness.
method Synthetic data generation and quantitative measures (KL divergence, JS distance, Mahalanobis distance) to assess data similarity and model uncertainty.
result Utilizing statistical measures like Mahalanobis distance helps assess distribution shift and model uncertainty.
In this paper we formally analyse the use of sparse filtering algorithms to perform covariate shift adaptation. We provide a theoretical analysis of sparse filtering by evaluating the conditions required to perform covariate shift adaptation. We prove that sparse filtering can perform adaptation only if the conditional…
This work evaluates uncertainty in deep Gaussian processes.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep Gaussian processes.
method Hierarchical deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) and Deep Sigma Point Processes (DSPPs) evaluated on regression and classification tasks.
result DSPPs provide strong in-distribution calibration but are less robust under distribution shift compared to ensembles.
COMPASS improves uncertainty quantification for medical segmentation metrics.
problem Uncertainty quantification for medical segmentation metrics is crucial for clinical decision-making.
method COMPASS leverages deep neural network inductive biases to generate efficient, metric-based conformal prediction intervals.
result COMPASS produces significantly tighter intervals than traditional conformal prediction methods on medical image segmentation tasks.
We propose a new metric to measure domain divergence and a new domain adaptation method for time-series classification. The metric belongs to the class of probability distributions-based metrics, is transductive, and does not assume the presence of source data samples. The 2-stage method utilizes an improved autoregres…
Tree Mover's Distance measures graph attributes and improves GNN performance.
problem Measuring generalization and robustness in graph neural networks.
method Introducing Tree Mover's Distance (TMD) for attributed graphs.
result TMD correlates with GNN performance under distribution shifts.
Study evaluates predictive uncertainty in malware detection.
problem Detecting dataset shift and adversarial examples in malware detection.
method Re-designed and built 24 Android malware detectors, quantified their uncertainties with nine metrics.
result Predictive uncertainty helps reliable malware detection but not adversarial evasion attacks.
The distance from the origin in the word metric for generalizations F(p) of Thompson's group F is quasi-isometric to the number of carets in the reduced rooted tree diagrams representing the elements of F(p). This interpretation of the metric is used to prove that every F(p) admits a quasi-isometric embedding into ever…
Study shows explanation disparities in machine learning models are influenced by data and model properties.
problem Disparities in post-hoc machine learning explanation methods across race and gender.
method Simulations and experiments on a real-world dataset to assess challenges to explanation disparities.
result Increased covariate shift, concept shift, and omission of covariates increase explanation disparities, especially for neural network models.
CRL improves recommendation systems by reducing distribution shift.
problem Offline metrics fail to predict online performance due to distribution shift in recommender systems.
method Proposes an information-theoretic disentanglement criterion and a variational lower bound for better generalisation under distribution shift.
result CRL variants deliver substantial online gains in listener engagement compared to baseline models.
Study evaluates AD methods for fraud detection in online credit card payments.
problem Fraud detection in online credit card payments using anomaly detection methods.
method Assessed several recent anomaly detection methods and compared them with standard supervised learning methods.
result LightGBM outperforms other methods but is more sensitive to distribution shifts.
We prove that the systolic ratio of a sphere of revolution S does not exceed π and equals π if and only if S is Zoll. More generally, we consider the rotationally symmetric Finsler metrics on a sphere of revolution which are defined by shifting the tangent unit circles by a Killing vector field. We prove that i…
Workplace communications became more siloed during the pandemic, reducing stability within communities.
problem Understanding changes in intra-organizational communication networks during the pandemic.
method Analyzed aggregated email metadata from 4,361 organizations worldwide over 24 months.
result Organizations became more siloed in 2020, with decreased stability within silos.
This research focuses on invariant probabilistic predictions, showing they are not robust under distribution shifts.
problem The challenge of creating robust probabilistic predictions that remain consistent under distribution shifts.
method A causality-inspired framework to investigate invariance and robustness of probabilistic predictions with respect to proper scoring rules.
result Arbitrary distribution shifts do not admit invariant and robust probabilistic predictions, unlike point predictions.
Unified analysis of KL divergence using shifted composition for sampling.
problem Sampling from target distributions with KL divergence guarantees.
method Shifted composition rule applied to KL divergence, combining local error analysis and Girsanov's theorem.
result Unified KL guarantees for strongly log-concave, weakly log-concave, and log-Sobolev distributions.
Paper tackles test-time adaptation for tabular data.
problem Performance degradation due to distribution shifts in testing.
method Proposes FTAT for robustly adapting tabular models during testing.
result FTAT outperforms state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets.
Transfer learning improves loan recovery rate forecasting under data scarcity.
problem Data scarcity in loan portfolios limits RR modeling accuracy.
method Introduces FT-MDN-Transformer, a mixture-density tabular Transformer architecture for TL.
result FT-MDN-Transformer outperforms baseline models in RR forecasting, especially under covariate and conditional shifts.
Paper develops estimators for unbounded density ratios with applications in error control.
problem Estimating density ratios with unbounded domains and ranges.
method Least squares and logistic regression loss functions for density ratio estimation.
result Established upper bounds on estimation errors with optimal rates for unbounded density ratios.
In this paper, we formulate a new local move on virtual knot diagram, called arc shift move. Further, we extend it to another local move called region arc shift defined on a region of a virtual knot diagram. We establish that these arc shift and region arc shift moves are unknotting operations by showing that any virtu…