In this paper we look at the efficacy of different risk measures on energy markets and across several different stock market indices. We use both the Value at Risk and the Tail Conditional Expectation on each of these data sets. We also consider several different durations and levels for historical risk measures. Throu…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
169,051 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “severity measures”
In this paper, we propose several "measurements" of the "non-stopping timeness" of ends g of previsible sets, such that g avoids stopping times, in an ambiant filtration. We then study several explicit examples, involving last passage times of some remarkable martingales.
One way to interpret smoothness of a measure in infinite dimensions is quasi-invariance of the measure under a class of transformations. Usually such settings lack a reference measure such as the Lebesgue or Haar measure, and therefore we can not use smoothness of a density with respect to such a measure. We describe h…
Innovative inequalities for divergences with applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo.
problem Developing new inequalities for divergences.
method Introducing novel change of measure inequalities for -divergences and -divergences.
result Applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo estimates.
Model predicts severity of traffic accidents using spatial and temporal features.
problem Estimating severity of traffic accidents in aggregated and disaggregated data.
method Gradient Boosting models and Gaussian Processes for inference and feature importance.
result Complexity of road networks and other situational features significantly impact accident severity.
The area under the ROC curve is widely used as a measure of performance of classification rules. However, it has recently been shown that the measure is fundamentally incoherent, in the sense that it treats the relative severities of misclassifications differently when different classifiers are used. To overcome this, …
Study assesses health plan risk measures for Solvency Capital Requirement.
problem Assessing risk measures for health plans to meet Solvency Capital Requirement.
method Three-part regression model with three GLMs for claim counts, episode allocation, and severity.
result Reduction in regression models compared to traditional methods.
Sources of variability in experimentally derived data include measurement error in addition to the physical phenomena of interest. This measurement error is a combination of systematic components, originating from the measuring instrument, and random measurement errors. Several novel biological technologies, such as ma…
Paper introduces Normalized Wasserstein measure for better handling of imbalanced mixture distributions.
problem Wasserstein distance fails for mixture distributions with imbalanced proportions.
method Introduce mixture proportions as optimization variables to normalize Wasserstein formulation.
result Normalized Wasserstein measure leads to significant performance gains for mixture distributions.
New approach to asset pricing without martingale measures.
problem No-arbitrage condition and martingale measures in financial asset pricing theory.
method Convex duality and Fenchel conjugate for super-replication cost estimation.
result Super-hedging problem leads to a new condition called Absence of Immediate Profit (AIP).
Paper uses machine learning to estimate IRI from pavement distress types, densities, and severities.
problem Costly IRI measurements exclude many road classes; estimating IRI from distress data is needed.
method Data from in-service pavements; machine learning methods used to predict IRI.
result Machine learning can reliably estimate IRI based on distress types, densities, and severities.
Monetary Measures of Riskq-fin.RM
Monetary risk measures explained as functions of random variables.
problem Understanding monetary risk measures.
method Representation results and construction methods.
result Monetary risk measures as monotone and cash additive functions.
New metric for probability measures connects physics and geometry.
problem Developing a new metric for probability measures.
method Transport Hessian metric, formulated dynamical systems.
result Connections to physics equations and mathematical models.
FFM generates functions between Gaussian and data distributions.
problem Generating functions between Gaussian and data distributions.
method Define a path of measures, learn a vector field to generate this path.
result FFM outperforms other function-space generative models.
Paper defines predictive multiplicity and measures its severity in classification problems.
problem Challenges in machine learning due to competing models with conflicting predictions.
method Formal measures and integer programming tools for linear classification problems.
result Real-world datasets may admit competing models with wildly conflicting predictions.
We prove several versions of Driver's integration by parts formula for the horizontal Wiener measure on a totally geodesic Riemannian foliation and prove that the horizontal Wiener measure has a quasi-invariance property with respect to flows generated by suitable tangent processes.
Paper uses stochastic algorithms to estimate systemic risk measures.
problem Estimating systemic risk measures in interconnected financial systems.
method Uses stochastic algorithms to estimate MSRM and proves consistency and asymptotic normality.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators of MSRM are obtained.
New framework for calculating multivariate risk measures using Wishart process.
problem Quantifying multivariate risk measures in financial markets.
method Introducing a new analytical framework based on the Wishart process.
result Explicit computation of conditional tail risk measures up to two dimensions.
A new measure quantifies how risk-averse different risk measures are.
problem Measuring the degree of risk aversion among different risk measures.
method Two axioms: normalization and linearity. Two formulas for the functional.
result Quantifies the degree of risk aversion among spectral risk measures.
Modern classification problems frequently present mild to severe label imbalance as well as specific requirements on classification characteristics, and require optimizing performance measures that are non-decomposable over the dataset, such as F-measure. Such measures have spurred much interest and pose specific chall…
The paper explores geometry of probability measures and barycenter maps.
problem Understanding the space of probability measures and their barycenter.
method Information geometry, Fisher metric, dualistic structures, divergences, geodesics.
result Recent developments in the geometry of probability measures and barycenter.
In this paper we introduce a new multivariate dependence measure based on comonotonicity by means of product moment which motivated by the recent papers of Koch and Schepper (ASTIN Bulletin 41 (2011) 191-213) and Dhaene et al. (Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 263 (2014) 78-87). Some differences and rel…
Expectiles were defined using a minimisation principle. They form a special class of coherent risk measures. We will describe the scenario set and we will show that there is a most severe commonotonic risk measure that is smaller than the given expectile.
Proves a theorem on Alexander polynomials for 3-manifolds.
problem Profinite rigidity of twisted Alexander polynomials.
method Formulated and proved a profinite rigidity theorem for Alexander polynomials with finite ambiguity.
result Established torsion growth formulas for homology groups.
Simplifies study of multivariate shortfall risk measures.
problem Complexity in studying multivariate shortfall risk measures.
method Defines shortfall risk measures through a 1-dimensional function.
result Simplifies properties of multivariate shortfall risk measures.
We simplify information measure computation using learned features.
problem Computing information measures from raw data is computationally expensive.
method Developed a separable design for computing information measures from learned feature representations.
result A variety of information measures can be computed efficiently through learned feature representations.
A new method quantizes conditional probability measures using deep learning.
problem Quantizing conditional probability measures efficiently.
method DCMQ method using Huber-energy kernel and deep neural network.
result Promising results on various examples.
A new risk measure framework captures multivariate risk in banking.
problem Scalar risk measures fail to capture the multivariate nature of risk in banking.
method A novel multivariate risk measure framework based on the Magnitude-Propensity approach.
result The proposed framework provides a more comprehensive characterization of extreme events.
Paper introduces a new performance metric for class imbalance datasets.
problem Challenges in selecting and comparing models for imbalanced datasets.
method Proposes a new performance measure based on the harmonic mean of Recall and Selectivity normalized in class labels.
result The proposed measure is less sensitive to changes in the majority class and more sensitive to changes in the minority class.
Study predicts blood glucose levels from infrequent measurements.
problem Predicting blood glucose levels from infrequent measurements.
method Proposed post-prediction methods to improve accuracy of machine learning models.
result Post-prediction methods marginally improve blood glucose prediction accuracy.
We study several problems concerning conformal transformation on metric measure spaces, including the Sobolev space, the differential structure and the curvature-dimension condition under conformal transformations. This is the first result about preservation of lower curvature bounds under perturbation, which is new ev…
Proposes a method to generate counterfactuals for ensemble models using entropic risk measures.
problem Finding a single counterfactual explanation for an ensemble of models.
method Incorporates entropic risk measure into a constrained optimization to generate counterfactuals valid for an adjustable fraction of models.
result Entropic risk measure allows generation of counterfactuals valid for all models in the ensemble under a limiting case.
SlideVaR balances risk and prudence by considering variable investor attitudes.
problem Finding a risk measure that reflects variable investor attitudes and market changes.
method Introducing SlideVaR, a new risk measure that considers risk-tail regions and sub-additivity.
result SlideVaR outperforms traditional measures in markets with frequent state changes.
The study examines markets with multiple numéraires and finds equivalent martingale measures.
problem Analyzing markets with diverse assets and numéraires.
method Theoretical foundations and results on superreplication prices.
result Existence of equivalent martingale measures in markets with multiple numéraires.
We develop a complexity measure for large-scale economic systems based on Shannon's concept of entropy. By adopting Leontief's perspective of the production process as a circular flow, we formulate the process as a Markov chain. Then we derive a measure of economic complexity as the average number of bits required to e…
This paper compares two different frameworks recently introduced in the literature for measuring risk in a multi-period setting. The first corresponds to applying a single coherent risk measure to the cumulative future costs, while the second involves applying a composition of one-step coherent risk mappings. We summar…
A scalable approach to learning from probability measures using quantization.
problem Efficiently comparing and manipulating large sets of probability measures.
method Quantization of probability measures to a fixed support, followed by optimal transport computations.
result Consistency and convergence guarantees for quantized measures in various OT-based tasks.
Study proposes an alternative method to measure societal biases using smoothed co-occurrence relations.
problem Measuring societal biases using word embeddings can introduce irrelevant concepts.
method Proposes an alternative approach using smoothed first-order co-occurrence relations.
result First-order approach shows higher correlations with actual gender bias statistics.
The use of alternative measures to evaluate classifier performance is gaining attention, specially for imbalanced problems. However, the use of these measures in the classifier design process is still unsolved. In this work we propose a classifier designed specifically to optimize one of these alternative measures, nam…
We present a general construction for dependent random measures based on thinning Poisson processes on an augmented space. The framework is not restricted to dependent versions of a specific nonparametric model, but can be applied to all models that can be represented using completely random measures. Several existing …
We study the stability of several no-arbitrage conditions with respect to absolutely continuous, but not necessarily equivalent, changes of measure. We first consider models based on continuous semimartingales and show that no-arbitrage conditions weaker than NA and NFLVR are always stable. Then, in the context of gene…
FPI methods compute barycenters of Gaussian sets for various dissimilarity measures.
problem Efficiently compute barycenters of Gaussian sets for multiple dissimilarity measures.
method Fixed-Point Iterations (FPI) for several dissimilarity measures.
result FPI provides a useful toolbox for fusion/reduction of Gaussian sets.
Local vector measuresmath.FA
The paper defines measures acting in duality with sections of bundles in curved spaces.
problem Understanding differential and Hessian concepts in curved spaces without charts.
method Introduces local vector measures to handle curved spaces.
result Provides a unified framework for nonsmooth analysis concepts.
We relate the existence of many infinite geodesics on Alexandrov spaces to a statement about the average growth of volumes of balls. We deduce that the geodesic flow exists and preserves the Liouville measure in several important cases. The developed analytic tool has close ties to integral geometry.
Synthetic social networks closely match real-world interactions.
problem Evaluating realism of synthetic social contact networks.
method Used multiple measures of graph complexity to compare synthetic networks with stylized models and empirical data.
result Synthetic networks are more realistic than stylized models.
Paper introduces MTCM to measure multivariate tail dependence.
problem Classical TDC fails to capture non-exchangeable features of multivariate tail dependence.
method Extends bivariate tail copula measure to multivariate case.
result MTCM reveals off-diagonal stress directions and differences in extremal dependence.
Introduces fractional k-dimensional measure bridging fractional length and area.
problem Defining fractional measures for dimensions between 0 and n-1.
method Introduces a parameterized fractional measure that converges to Hausdorff measure.
result Fractional measure converges to Hausdorff measure with a known constant factor.
We consider the problem of sequential prediction and provide tools to study the minimax value of the associated game. Classical statistical learning theory provides several useful complexity measures to study learning with i.i.d. data. Our proposed sequential complexities can be seen as extensions of these measures to …