A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Risk measures such as Expected Shortfall (ES) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) have been prominent in banking regulation and financial risk management. Motivated by practical considerations in the assessment and management of risks, including tractability, scenario relevance and robustness, we consider theoretical properties of…
We propose a hybrid algorithmic strategy for complex stochastic optimization problems, which combines the use of scenario trees from multistage stochastic programming with machine learning techniques for learning a policy in the form of a statistical model, in the context of constrained vector-valued decisions. Such a …
Paper investigates learnability of OOD detection under various conditions.
GANs generate synthetic financial scenarios from diverse datasets.
Generalized statistical arbitrage concepts are introduced corresponding to trading strategies which yield positive gains on average in a class of scenarios rather than almost surely. The relevant scenarios or market states are specified via an information system given by a -algebra and so this notion contains classi…
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies the behaviour of different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of possible extreme los…
Expectiles were defined using a minimisation principle. They form a special class of coherent risk measures. We will describe the scenario set and we will show that there is a most severe commonotonic risk measure that is smaller than the given expectile.
Paper introduces a benchmark for predicting bankruptcy from text data.
New method for risk allocation under multimodality of loss distribution.
This paper improves MADDPG's performance in discrete grid-world scenarios.
Unified framework for tractable inference scenarios in machine learning models.
By treating the financial market as a thermodynamic system, we establish a one-to-one correspondence between thermodynamic variables and economic quantities. Measured by the expected loss under the worst-case scenario, financial risk caused by model uncertainty is regarded as a result of the interaction between financi…
A survey is performed of various Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) strategies in order to examine their performance in circumstances exhibiting non-stationary stochastic reward functions in conjunction with delayed feedback. We run several MAB simulations to simulate an online eCommerce platform for grocery pick up, optimizing …
Paper investigates OOD detection learnability under various conditions.
FavMac maximizes value while controlling cost in multi-label prediction.
In binary classification, there are situations where negative (N) data are too diverse to be fully labeled and we often resort to positive-unlabeled (PU) learning in these scenarios. However, collecting a non-representative N set that contains only a small portion of all possible N data can often be much easier in prac…
We consider calculation of capital requirements when the underlying economic scenarios are determined by simulatable risk factors. In the respective nested simulation framework, the goal is to estimate portfolio tail risk, quantified via VaR or TVaR of a given collection of future economic scenarios representing factor…
New method tackles rugged optimization landscapes in contact-rich scenarios.
Paper proposes MCC to reduce class confusion for versatile DA.
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank's internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. Quantification of operational risk cannot be base…
A new method predicts true classes from positive and unlabeled data with additional labeled observations.
By interpreting a traffic scene as a graph of interacting vehicles, we gain a flexible abstract representation which allows us to apply Graph Neural Network (GNN) models for traffic prediction. These naturally take interaction between traffic participants into account while being computationally efficient and providing…
This paper surveys fairness notions in ML and recommends the most suitable one for real-world scenarios.
Algorithm improves blockchain bridge efficiency.
Study shows algorithms benefit from limited target data with many source domains.
The paper explores how macroeconomic variables' correlation structure changes over time and under different scenarios.
Adversarial attack methods have demonstrated the fragility of deep neural networks. Their imperceptible perturbations are frequently able fool classifiers into potentially dangerous misclassifications. We propose a novel way to interpret adversarial perturbations in terms of the effective input signal that classifiers …
The family of image visibility graphs (IVGs) have been recently introduced as simple algorithms by which scalar fields can be mapped into graphs. Here we explore the usefulness of such operator in the scenario of image processing and image classification. We demonstrate that the link architecture of the image visibilit…
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the individual OpRisk loss…
Flexible evidential deep learning improves uncertainty quantification in machine learning.
In this paper we provide an integral representation of the fractional Laplace-Beltrami operator for general riemannian manifolds which has several interesting applications. We give two different proofs, in two different scenarios, of essentially the same result. One of them deals with compact manifolds with or without …
Neural Networks (NN) have recently emerged as backbone of several sensitive applications like automobile, medical image, security, etc. NNs inherently offer Partial Fault Tolerance (PFT) in their architecture; however, the biased PFT of NNs can lead to severe consequences in applications like cryptography and security …
Proposes a constraint for deep clustering to handle both simple and complex topologies.
In recent years, pattern analysis plays an important role in data mining and recognition, and many variants have been proposed to handle complicated scenarios. In the literature, it has been quite familiar with high dimensionality of data samples, but either such characteristics or large data have become usual sense in…
In this paper, we consider the classic measurement error regression scenario in which our independent, or design, variables are observed with several sources of additive noise. We will show that our motivating example's replicated measurements on both the design and dependent variables may be leveraged to enhance a spa…
Backdoor attacks are possible in feature-partitioned collaborative learning, even without labels.
Paper models non-maturing deposits using a Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
SwiGAN generates drought scenarios for climate risk management.
Recent progress in the field of reinforcement learning has been accelerated by virtual learning environments such as video games, where novel algorithms and ideas can be quickly tested in a safe and reproducible manner. We introduce the Google Research Football Environment, a new reinforcement learning environment wher…
The safety and resilience of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are of significant concern, as exemplified by several headline-making accidents. While AV development today involves verification, validation, and testing, end-to-end assessment of AV systems under accidental faults in realistic driving scenarios has been lar…
Deep neural network controllers for autonomous driving have recently benefited from significant performance improvements, and have begun deployment in the real world. Prior to their widespread adoption, safety guarantees are needed on the controller behaviour that properly take account of the uncertainty within the mod…
Develops methods for AI self-assessment to improve trustworthiness.
In this article, we analyze the SPICE method developed in [1], and establish its connections with other standard sparse estimation methods such as the Lasso and the LAD-Lasso. This result positions SPICE as a computationally efficient technique for the calculation of Lasso-type estimators. Conversely, this connection i…
RegFlow models future states with flexible probability distributions.
Many machine learning techniques have been proposed in the last few years to process data represented in graph-structured form. Graphs can be used to model several scenarios, from molecules and materials to RNA secondary structures. Several kernel functions have been defined on graphs that coupled with kernelized learn…
New method uses weak labels to create valid confidence sets for predictions.
A new method for online multi-label stream classification.
Several recent works have empirically observed that Convolutional Neural Nets (CNNs) are (approximately) invertible. To understand this approximate invertibility phenomenon and how to leverage it more effectively, we focus on a theoretical explanation and develop a mathematical model of sparse signal recovery that is c…