A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study examines cyber losses across sectors, finds high severity and frequency.
The aim of process discovery, originating from the area of process mining, is to discover a process model based on business process execution data. A majority of process discovery techniques relies on an event log as an input. An event log is a static source of historical data capturing the execution of a business proc…
Generative model simulates rare events for better decision making.
We present an analysis of the problem of identifying biological context and associating it with biochemical events in biomedical texts. This constitutes a non-trivial, inter-sentential relation extraction task. We focus on biological context as descriptions of the species, tissue type and cell type that are associated …
Traditional event detection classifies a word or a phrase in a given sentence for a set of predefined event types. The limitation of such predefined set is that it prevents the adaptation of the event detection models to new event types. We study a novel formulation of event detection that describes types via several k…
A new method reduces uncertainty in predicting rare extreme events without assuming their presence in training data.
Polysomnography (PSG) is the gold standard for diagnosing sleep obstructive apnea (OSA). It allows monitoring of breathing events throughout the night. The detection of these events is usually done by trained sleep experts. However, this task is tedious, highly time-consuming and subject to important inter-scorer varia…
New deep learning method handles rare and imbalanced events in time series.
Financial event studies often misestimate causal effects due to misspecified factor models.
Regular variation provides a convenient theoretical framework to study large events. In the multivariate setting, the dependence structure of the positive extremes is characterized by a measure - the spectral measure - defined on the positive orthant of the unit sphere. This measure gathers information on the localizat…
Study compares resampling methods for rare event prediction in longitudinal studies.
Proposes OC4Seq for detecting anomalies in discrete event sequences.
New metrics prevent event collapse in contrast maximization frameworks.
Variational autoencoder models dynamic latent graphs for neural point processes.
We consider solutions to the linear wave equation on a suitable globally hyperbolic subset of an extreme Reissner-Nordstrom spacetime, arising from regular initial data prescribed on a Cauchy hypersurface crossing the future event horizon. We obtain boundedness, decay, non-decay and blow-up results. Our estimates hold …
A deep neural network detects sleep events in polysomnograms with high accuracy.
Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty…
Sequential modelling with self-attention has achieved cutting edge performances in natural language processing. With advantages in model flexibility, computation complexity and interpretability, self-attention is gradually becoming a key component in event sequence models. However, like most other sequence models, self…
In this paper we seek methods to effectively detect urban micro-events. Urban micro-events are events which occur in cities, have limited geographical coverage and typically affect only a small group of citizens. Because of their scale these are difficult to identify in most data sources. However, by using citizen sens…
Preventing early progression of epilepsy and so the severity of seizures requires an effective diagnosis. Epileptic transients indicate the ability to develop seizures but humans overlook such brief events in an electroencephalogram (EEG) what compromises patient treatment. Traditionally, training of the EEG event dete…
PyDTS analyzes survival data with discrete intervals and competing risks.
This study evaluates subgroup analysis methods for time-to-event outcomes in randomized controlled trials.
We target modeling latent dynamics in high-dimension marked event sequences without any prior knowledge about marker relations. Such problem has been rarely studied by previous works which would have fundamental difficulty to handle the arisen challenges: 1) the high-dimensional markers and unknown relation network amo…
Paper improves predictive distributions for rare events using a simple framework.
Study on cyber insurance viability using statistical models.
This monograph introduces deep learning models for predicting time-to-event outcomes.
Paper models non-maturing deposits using a Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
A vast amount of textual web streams is influenced by events or phenomena emerging in the real world. The social web forms an excellent modern paradigm, where unstructured user generated content is published on a regular basis and in most occasions is freely distributed. The present Ph.D. Thesis deals with the problem …
Public special events, like sports games, concerts and festivals are well known to create disruptions in transportation systems, often catching the operators by surprise. Although these are usually planned well in advance, their impact is difficult to predict, even when organisers and transportation operators coordinat…
Due to the growing demand for improving surveillance capabilities in smart cities, systems need to be developed to provide better monitoring capabilities to competent authorities, agencies responsible for strategic resource management, and emergency call centers. This work assumes that, as a complementary monitoring so…
Novel approach models life events using causal discovery and survival analysis.
New tests for conditional copulas based on decision trees.
We suggest a novel method of clustering and exploratory analysis of temporal event sequences data (also known as categorical time series) based on three-dimensional data grid models. A data set of temporal event sequences can be represented as a data set of three-dimensional points, each point is defined by three varia…
In the hypothesis of rare loss events, the general expression of the policy value has been determined as a functional of the "expected frequency / loss severity" function and of the retention function. Exponential disutility has been chosen after mathematical characterization of some of its economical aspects, where fu…
Paper proposes kernelized Stein tests for time-to-event data with censoring.
RED detects sleep EEG events using deep neural networks, outperforming previous methods.
A new method extracts events and their arguments efficiently from text.
The episodic, irregular and asynchronous nature of medical data render them difficult substrates for standard machine learning algorithms. We would like to abstract away this difficulty for the class of time-stamped categorical variables (or events) by modeling them as a renewal process and inferring a probability dens…
R package stagedtrees learns staged tree structures from data.
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based collective violence and illicit activity. I point out how the borders distinguish…
New method identifies sepsis-related patient features in EMR data.
Electroencephalography (EEG) data are difficult to obtain due to complex experimental setups and reduced comfort with prolonged wearing. This poses challenges to train powerful deep learning model with the limited EEG data. Being able to generate EEG data computationally could address this limitation. We propose a nove…
According to the Loss Distribution Approach, the operational risk of a bank is determined as 99.9% quantile of the respective loss distribution, covering unexpected severe events. The 99.9% quantile can be considered a tail event. As supported by the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan Theorem, tail events exceeding some high thr…
Transformer model estimates keywords for better audio captioning.
The problem of estimating event truths from conflicting agent opinions in a social network is investigated. An autoencoder learns the complex relationships between event truths, agent reliabilities and agent observations. A Bayesian network model is proposed to guide the learning process by modeling the relationship of…
A new compressed sensing system speeds up PSTE detection.
We win EVA2025 by estimating extreme precipitation events using Peaks Over Thresholds and martingale testing.
Accurately predicting the time of occurrence of an event of interest is a critical problem in longitudinal data analysis. One of the main challenges in this context is the presence of instances whose event outcomes become unobservable after a certain time point or when some instances do not experience any event during …