This letter introduces an abstract learning problem called the "set embedding": The objective is to map sets into probability distributions so as to lose less information. We relate set union and intersection operations with corresponding interpolations of probability distributions. We also demonstrate a preliminary so…
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48 results for “sets of probabilities”
The paper tackles multi-label ranking with uncertain probabilities.
problem Making skeptical inferences for multi-label ranking with sets of probabilities.
method Assumes a convex set of probabilities (credal set) over labels and seeks set-valued predictions.
result Developed methods for making skeptical inferences in multi-label ranking with uncertain probabilities.
Identifies conditions for multiple invariant probabilities in Markov kernels.
problem Global irreducibility and recurrence do not guarantee uniqueness of invariant probabilities.
method Uses Jordan decomposition of the difference of two invariant probabilities.
result A Markov kernel has more than one invariant probability if and only if it admits a visible absorbing decomposition.
This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.
problem Assessing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Computes multivariate conditional probability distributions for elliptical distributions, focusing on Student-t and Normal models.
result Proposes measures of stress impact and systemic risk.
Generative model learns conditional distributions on collective variable levels.
problem Modeling conditional probability distributions on collective variable levels.
method General and efficient learning approach, data enrichment strategy.
result Effective generative models on different level-sets of collective variables.
New theory uses probability sets for data variability, improving machine learning.
problem Variability in data distribution causes learning issues.
method Uses convex sets of probabilities (credal sets) to model data variability.
result Derives bounds for risk of models learned from multiple training sets.
Estimating a constrained relation is a fundamental problem in machine learning. Special cases are classification (the problem of estimating a map from a set of to-be-classified elements to a set of labels), clustering (the problem of estimating an equivalence relation on a set) and ranking (the problem of estimating a …
Formula found for probability of random triangles on flat tori being homotopically trivial.
problem Calculating the probability of random triangles on flat tori being homotopically trivial.
method Reduced problem to new invariant of measurable sets in the plane unchanged by area-preserving affine transformations.
result Probability is minimized on rectangular tori and maximized on regular hexagonal tori.
Optimal transport adapted for contaminated probabilities, showing equivalence under specific conditions.
problem Adapting optimal transport for -contaminated sets.
method Generalized optimal transport problems with lower probabilities, showing equivalence under -contaminations.
result Monge's and Kantorovich's problems coincide under -contaminated sets, but not always.
The framework of this paper is that of risk measuring under uncertainty, which is when no reference probability measure is given. To every regular convex risk measure on , we associate a unique equivalence class of probability measures on Borel sets, characterizing the riskless non positive elements of $…
Investigates the effects of nondominated sets of probability measures in robust models of finance.
problem Uncertainty in financial models due to multiple possible probability measures.
method Analyzes various results from mathematical finance literature under the assumption of nondominated sets of probability measures.
result Many classical results in robust models do not hold when the set of measures is nondominated.
The paper examines how sampling data affects the performance of submodular maximization.
problem Performance loss due to probability sampling in submodular maximization.
method Examines a simple probability sampling method where each data point is selected with probability at least r.
result The sampling gap is both upper and lower bounded by 1/r for policywise submodular utility functions.
Efficient methods estimate concordance probability for big data.
problem Efficiently calculating concordance probability in large datasets.
method Proposes two estimation methods for discrete and continuous settings.
result Estimators are accurate and computationally efficient.
We describe a Groebner basis of relations among conditional probabilities in a discrete probability space, with any set of conditioned-upon events. They may be specialized to the partially-observed random variable case, the purely conditional case, and other special cases. We also investigate the connection to generali…
New approach for handling uncertain probabilities.
problem Handling imprecise or uncertain probabilities.
method Introducing interval probability measures and updating rules.
result Formal solution to the Keynes-Ramsey controversy.
Bayesian approach to robust risk measures under model uncertainty.
problem Representing robust risk measures as a single probability measure.
method Introducing two types of risk measures and analyzing their relation to robust risk measures.
result Robust risk measures can be represented by a mixture probability measure, a Bayesian approach.
We extend Bayes' theorem for upper probabilities considering likelihood uncertainty.
problem Addressing uncertainty in likelihood for upper probability bounds.
method Generalization of Wasserman and Kadane's result, considering both prior and likelihood uncertainty.
result A sufficient condition for the upper bound to become an equality.
Optimizes risk-neutral probabilities for derivative pricing.
problem Deriving bounds on derivative values under multiple risk-neutral scenarios.
method Convex optimization over the set of risk-neutral probability distributions.
result Tractable finite-dimensional optimization problems for pricing.
We consider the robust utility maximization using a static holding in derivatives and a dynamic holding in the stock. There is no fixed model for the price of the stock but we consider a set of probability measures (models) which are not necessarily dominated by a fixed probability measure. By assuming that the set of …
Develops efficient projections for multivariate probability measures.
problem Estimating causal effects and optimal weights in multivariate data.
method Tangent Wasserstein projections using generalized geodesics.
result Provides a unique solution for causal inference and optimal weights.
Study finds root vertex in large networks with high probability.
problem Finding the root vertex in large growing networks.
method Constructs confidence sets for the root vertex in various random network models.
result Confidence sets of size independent of the number of vertices contain the root vertex with high probability.
Investigates probability of error in structured thresholding bandit problems.
problem Probability of misclassifying arms in structured thresholding bandit problems.
method Analyzes two shape constraints: monotonic increasing and concave sequences of arm means.
result Upper and lower bounds for the probability of error match up to constants in the problem dependent regime.
Without probability theory, we define classes of supermartingales, martingales, and semimartingales in idealized financial markets with continuous price paths. This allows us to establish probability-free versions of a number of standard results in martingale theory, including the Dubins-Schwarz theorem, the Girsanov t…
In many real-world applications of machine learning classifiers, it is essential to predict the probability of an example belonging to a particular class. This paper proposes a simple technique for predicting probabilities based on optimizing a ranking loss, followed by isotonic regression. This semi-parametric techniq…
On the Robust Dynkin Gamemath.PR
We study a robust Dynkin game over a set of mutually singular probabilities. We first prove that for the conservative player of the game, her lower and upper value processes coincide (i.e. She has a value process in the game). Such a result helps people connect the robust Dynkin game with second-order doubly refle…
New method calibrates classifier probabilities with guaranteed coverage.
problem Inaccurate probability estimates by classifiers in high-risk applications.
method Adaptive temperature scaling algorithm for conformal prediction.
result Improves calibration error measures and standard metrics across various tasks.
There are many advantages to use probability method for nonlinear system identification, such as the noises and outliers in the data set do not affect the probability models significantly; the input features can be extracted in probability forms. The biggest obstacle of the probability model is the probability distribu…
Formulates mechanics for probability distributions on statistical manifold.
problem Formulating mechanics for probability distributions on statistical manifold.
method Information-geometric formulation of Classical Mechanics on statistical manifold, using dually-flat connection and Hilbert bundle structure.
result Provides coherent formalism for Lagrangian and Hamiltonian mechanics on statistical bundle.
Paper analyzes high probability convergence of adaptive SGD with momentum.
problem Theoretical understanding of adaptive SGD with momentum in nonconvex settings is incomplete.
method High probability analysis under weak assumptions.
result First high probability convergence proof for gradients to zero in Delayed AdaGrad with momentum.
New algorithms minimize MMD to approximate probability measures efficiently.
problem Approximating probability measures by representative point sets.
method Sequential greedy minimization of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) over candidate sets, with mini-batch variants.
result Consistency of proposed algorithms and mini-batch variants established.
A new IPM uses ReLU networks to measure probability discrepancies.
problem Measuring the difference between two probability distributions in high dimensions.
method Proposes a new parametric IPM using ReLU neural networks to optimize and distinguish between distributions.
result The proposed IPM has good convergence rates and can be used as a surrogate for other IPMs.
Study generalizes property elicitation to imprecise probabilities.
problem Minimizing risk over imprecise probability distributions.
method Maximin risk minimization over a set of imprecise probabilities.
result Conditions for elicitability of IP-properties.
A new pseudo-metric uses data depth to compare probability distributions.
problem Designing a metric between probability distributions for machine learning applications.
method Extension of univariate quantiles to multivariate spaces, using data depth and Hausdorff distance.
result The pseudo-metric is robust, factorizes translations, and has good behavior under transformations.
A new method for matrix completion with model-free weights.
problem Matrix completion under non-uniform missing structures.
method Constructs weights via convex optimization to adjust for non-uniformity without modeling observation probabilities.
result Recover matrix with stronger theoretical guarantees, especially in heterogeneous missing settings.
Reduces quantifier variance with accuracy optimization of base classifier.
problem Minimizing quantifier variance under prior probability shift.
method Optimizes the Brier score of a base classifier for training data.
result Optimizing Brier score on training data reduces quantifier variance on test data.
New theory controls compression change probability without prior knowledge.
problem Controlling compression change probability without prior knowledge.
method New theory on compression function and statistical risk.
result Cardinality of compressed set is a consistent estimator of probability of change of compression.
We present a theoretical framework of probabilistic learning derived by Maximum Probability (MP) Theorem shown in the current paper. In this probabilistic framework, a model is defined as an event in the probability space, and a model or the associated event -- either the true underlying model or the parameterized mode…
A method for predicting credal sets in classification tasks using conformal prediction.
problem Designing methods for learning credal set predictors in machine learning.
method Incorporates conformal prediction for predicting credal sets in classification tasks.
result Conformal credal sets are guaranteed to be valid with high probability.
A new method calculates optimal decisions from classifier outputs, improving predictions in drug discovery.
problem Finding optimal decisions from classifier outputs in fields like medicine.
method Develops a transducer that calculates probabilities from classifier outputs, enabling expected-utility maximization.
result Improves prediction accuracy in drug discovery problems, sometimes close to theoretical maximum.
Many classification applications require accurate probability estimates in addition to good class separation but often classifiers are designed focusing only on the latter. Calibration is the process of improving probability estimates by post-processing but commonly used calibration algorithms work poorly on small data…
We consider a setting where an agent's uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures, rather than a single measure. Measure-bymeasure updating of such a set of measures upon acquiring new information is well-known to suffer from problems; agents are not always able to learn appropriately. To deal with the…
Two strategies extend multi-label chaining for imprecise probability estimates.
problem Handling imprecise probability estimates in multi-label classification.
method Adapting multi-label chaining to use convex sets of distributions (credal sets).
result Adapted approaches produce relevant cautiousness on hard-to-predict instances.
Conformal Prediction Regions match Imprecise Highest Density Regions under consonance.
problem Matching conformal prediction regions with highest density regions.
method Using consonance and the Imprecise Probability theory of clouds.
result Imprecise Highest Density Regions are equivalent to Conformal Prediction Regions under consonance.
The main goal of this article is to understand how the length spectrum of a random surface depends on its genus. Here a random surface means a surface obtained by randomly gluing together an even number of triangles carrying a fixed metric. Given suitable restrictions on the genus of the surface, we consider the number…
We present two methodologies on the estimation of rating transition probabilities within Markov and non-Markov frameworks. We first estimate a continuous-time Markov chain using discrete (missing) data and derive a simpler expression for the Fisher information matrix, reducing the computational time needed for the Wald…
PPI uses predictions and weighting to infer from partially labeled data.
problem Valid inference with partially labeled data.
method Combines model-based predictions with bias correction from labeled data, using Horvitz-Thompson and Hájek corrections.
result IPW-adjusted PPI with estimated propensities performs similarly to known-probability case.
Bayesian method for estimating inputs leading to specific probability outputs.
problem Estimating inputs for specific probability outputs of uncertain functions.
method Bayesian strategy using Gaussian process modeling and SUR principle.
result Surpassed performance of existing methods through numerical experiments.
We consider the setting of linear regression in high dimension. We focus on the problem of constructing adaptive and honest confidence sets for the sparse parameter θ, i.e. we want to construct a confidence set for theta that contains theta with high probability, and that is as small as possible. The l_2 diameter of a …