A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Recently, it has been shown that many functions on sets can be represented by sum decompositions. These decompositons easily lend themselves to neural approximations, extending the applicability of neural nets to set-valued inputs---Deep Set learning. This work investigates a core component of Deep Set architecture: ag…
This paper addresses the problem of rank aggregation, which aims to find a consensus ranking among multiple ranking inputs. Traditional rank aggregation methods are deterministic, and can be categorized into explicit and implicit methods depending on whether rank information is explicitly or implicitly utilized. Surpri…
Learning the true ordering between objects by aggregating a set of expert opinion rank order lists is an important and ubiquitous problem in many applications ranging from social choice theory to natural language processing and search aggregation. We study the problem of unsupervised rank aggregation where no ground tr…
We consider the forecast aggregation problem in repeated settings, where the forecasts are done on a binary event. At each period multiple experts provide forecasts about an event. The goal of the aggregator is to aggregate those forecasts into a subjective accurate forecast. We assume that experts are Bayesian; namely…
Probabilistic graphical models are graphical representations of probability distributions. Graphical models have applications in many fields including biology, social sciences, linguistic, neuroscience. In this paper, we propose directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) learning via bootstrap aggregating. The proposed procedure i…
Researchers improve deep ensemble forecast aggregation methods.
problem Aggregating forecast distributions from deep ensembles for better predictive performance.
method Comprehensive analysis of twelve benchmark data sets, comparing probability- and quantile-based aggregation methods for three neural network-based approaches.
result A general quantile aggregation framework for deep ensembles improves predictive performance in various settings.
Calibrated models can lead to miscalibrated aggregations in strategic interactions.
problem Miscalibration in aggregated predictions from multiple calibrated models.
method Analysis of strategic interactions between calibrated predictors, proving conditions for miscalibration and comparing VCG and Brier-score aggregation methods.
result VCG aggregation method outperforms Brier-score in strategic settings, providing robustness and comparable accuracy.
Federated learning is the centralized training of statistical models from decentralized data on mobile devices while preserving the privacy of each device. We present a robust aggregation approach to make federated learning robust to settings when a fraction of the devices may be sending corrupted updates to the server…
Study online learning in MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback, achieving low regret in both stochastic and adversarial settings.
problem Online learning in finite-horizon episodic MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback.
method Best-of-both-worlds (BOBW) algorithms using FTRL over occupancy measures, self-bounding techniques, and new loss estimators.
result First BOBW algorithms for episodic tabular MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback achieving O(logT) regret in stochastic and O(T) regret in adversarial settings.
We establish dual representations for systemic risk measures based on acceptance sets in a general setting. We deal with systemic risk measures of both "first allocate, then aggregate" and "first aggregate, then allocate" type. In both cases, we provide a detailed analysis of the corresponding systemic acceptance sets …
The financial crisis showed the importance of measuring, allocating and regulating systemic risk. Recently, the systemic risk measures that can be decomposed into an aggregation function and a scalar measure of risk, received a lot of attention. In this framework, capital allocations are added after aggregation and can…
In classification, the de facto method for aggregating individual losses is the average loss. When the actual metric of interest is 0-1 loss, it is common to minimize the average surrogate loss for some well-behaved (e.g. convex) surrogate. Recently, several other aggregate losses such as the maximal loss and average t…
Federated Learning enables mobile devices to collaboratively learn a shared inference model while keeping all the training data on a user's device, decoupling the ability to do machine learning from the need to store the data in the cloud. Existing work on federated learning with limited communication demonstrates how …
We consider the problem of belief aggregation: given a group of individual agents with probabilistic beliefs over a set of uncertain events, formulate a sensible consensus or aggregate probability distribution over these events. Researchers have proposed many aggregation methods, although on the question of which is be…