Hopformer combines common trends with series-specific details for better time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting multiple time-series with high-dimensional covariates while retaining series-specific information.
method Hopformer uses a two-stage framework: SPA for common trends and LoRA-fine-tuned Transformer for residual dependencies.
result Improves MASE by an average of 6.56% across synthetic and real-world benchmarks.
We show how binary classification methods developed to work on i.i.d. data can be used for solving statistical problems that are seemingly unrelated to classification and concern highly-dependent time series. Specifically, the problems of time-series clustering, homogeneity testing and the three-sample problem are addr…
Structured subsampling improves privacy in deep time series forecasting.
problem Incompatible privacy guarantees with time series forecasting.
method Structured subsampling of sequential data for privacy amplification.
result Structured subsampling enables training with strong privacy guarantees.
ElasTST improves time-series forecasting across varying horizons.
problem Robust forecasting across different time horizons in varied industrial sectors.
method Elastic Time-Series Transformer (ElasTST) with non-autoregressive design, rotary position embedding, and multi-scale patching.
result ElasTST provides robust forecasts across varying horizons without retraining.
Modeling regime shifts in co-evolving time series with interactions and time-dependency.
problem Discovering and modeling regime shifts in multiple time series with relationships and time-dependent behaviors.
method Modeling interactions and time-dependency in co-evolving time series using a mapping grid and dynamic network representation for regime identification and time-dependent Cox regression for regime transition probabilities.
result A principled approach for modeling interactions and time-dependency in co-evolving time series.
We present online prediction methods for time series that let us explicitly handle nonstationary artifacts (e.g. trend and seasonality) present in most real time series. Specifically, we show that applying appropriate transformations to such time series before prediction can lead to improved theoretical and empirical p…
Paper proposes a novel approach to improve temporal clustering of time series data.
problem Challenges in clustering temporal data with varying sampling rates and high dimensionality.
method Transform time series into Euclidean space using similarity measures, then use CNN-GRU autoencoder for latent representation.
result Approach outperforms existing methods by up to 32% on various time series datasets.
Paper introduces a new method for classifying interval-valued time series.
problem Classification of interval-valued time series.
method Extends point-valued time series imaging methods to interval-valued scenarios using DK-distance and employs deep learning for classification. result Proposed method achieves superior classification performance compared to existing methods.
TC-VAE generates robust financial time series data with causal constraints.
problem Generating realistic financial time series data with causal relationships.
method TC-VAE with causality constraint, RealNVP prior, and Wasserstein distance.
result TC-VAE loss controls discrepancy between market and generated distributions.
A novel tree algorithm improves time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in non-linear time series forecasting.
method Developed a hierarchical TAR model as a regression tree that trains globally across series, introducing a forecasting-specific tree algorithm with cross-series learning.
result Significantly higher accuracy than state-of-the-art tree-based algorithms and benchmarks across four metrics.
Quantum model generates complex time series data with preserved temporal dynamics.
problem Generating synthetic time series data with temporal correlations.
method Quantum Hamiltonian learning to encode temporal dynamics.
result The proposed quantum model captures unique temporal features of the learned time series.
Study improves cryptocurrency price prediction using neural networks and technical indicators.
problem Improving cryptocurrency price prediction accuracy.
method Integrates technical indicators, Transformer neural network, and BiLSTM.
result Demonstrates superior performance in predicting cryptocurrency prices.
N-BEATS improves time series forecasting accuracy by 11% over benchmarks.
problem Univariate time series point forecasting problem
method Neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and fully-connected layers
result State-of-the-art performance on diverse datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over statistical benchmarks
Meta-learning for Koopman spectral analysis with short time-series data.
problem Lack of long time-series for training embedding functions in Koopman spectral analysis.
method Meta-learning approach using bidirectional LSTM and neural network to estimate embedding functions from short time-series.
result The proposed method achieves better performance in eigenvalue estimation and future prediction compared to existing methods.
Hybrid model improves sequential data prediction by combining neural and time series models.
problem Nonlinear prediction in online settings with domain-specific feature engineering issues.
method Joint optimization of LSTM for feature extraction and SARIMAX for time series data using state space representations.
result Significant improvements in real-life competition datasets.
We simplify information measure computation using learned features.
problem Computing information measures from raw data is computationally expensive.
method Developed a separable design for computing information measures from learned feature representations.
result A variety of information measures can be computed efficiently through learned feature representations.
A new framework for information theory considers computational constraints.
problem Understanding information in complex systems with computational limitations.
method Variational extension of Shannon's information theory with computational constraints.
result Predictive V-information can be created through computation and reliably estimated from data. An asymmetric information model is introduced for the situation in which there is a small agent who is more susceptible to the flow of information in the market than the general market participant, and who tries to implement strategies based on the additional information. In this model market participants have access t…
We study a simple model of an asset market with informed and non-informed agents. In the absence of non-informed agents, the market becomes information efficient when the number of traders with different private information is large enough. Upon introducing non-informed agents, we find that the latter contribute signif…
New method quantifies redundant information using information bottleneck.
problem Quantifying redundant information among multiple sources.
method Formulated as an information bottleneck problem, termed redundancy bottleneck.
result Extracts information that best predicts the target without revealing source identity.
This paper reviews information theory in open-world machine learning.
problem Lack of a unified theoretical foundation for open-world machine learning.
method Synthesis of information theoretic approaches.
result Established a pathway toward provable and trustworthy open world intelligence.
Generalizes information theory to evolving belief.
problem Measuring change in belief over time.
method Derives a general theory of information from first principles.
result Recover all information measures and interprets entropy as expected gain.
Paper proposes a framework to identify and obfuscate sensitive features via information density estimation.
problem Identifying and protecting sensitive attributes from leakage in obfuscation mechanisms.
method Information density estimation to identify leaking features, followed by a targeted obfuscation mechanism.
result Proven leakage guarantee in terms of Eγ-divergence for the obfuscation mechanism. Review of information plane analyses in neural networks, highlighting mixed results and methodological challenges.
problem Understanding the relationship between information-theoretic compression and neural network performance.
method Literature review and detailed analysis of information quantity estimation methods.
result Information plane compression is not necessarily information-theoretic but compatible with geometric compression.
Information geometry offers new tools for statistical analysis.
problem Statistical analysis of probability distributions.
method Geometric perspective on statistical manifolds.
result New applications in radar sensing, signal processing, etc.
In this paper, we present a new approach to interpret deep learning models. By coupling mutual information with network science, we explore how information flows through feedforward networks. We show that efficiently approximating mutual information allows us to create an information measure that quantifies how much in…
Before the massive spread of computer technology, information was far from complex. The development of technology shifted the paradigm: from individuals who faced scarce and costly information to individuals who face massive amounts of information accessible at low costs. Nowadays we are living in the era of big data a…
In financial markets valuable information is rarely circulated homogeneously, because of time required for information to spread. However, advances in communication technology means that the 'lifetime' of important information is typically short. Hence, viewed as a tradable asset, information shares the characteristics…
Introduces relative information gain for improving Gaussian process regression rates.
problem Improving the sample complexity of estimating or maximizing unknown functions.
method Introduces relative information gain, interpolates between effective dimension and information gain, and proves PAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Obtains minimax-optimal rates of convergence through the relative information gain.
This paper uses information theory to improve risk modeling in big data.
problem Insufficient application of information theory in actuarial science.
method Explores information theory to uncover performance limits of insurance big data systems.
result Guidance for risk modeling and actuarial pricing systems.
In information theory, Fisher information and Shannon information (entropy) are respectively used to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution modeling and the uncertainty in specifying the outcome of given variables. These two quantities are complementary and are jointly applied to information behavior…
Investors pay for additional asset information based on utility maximization.
problem Determining the optimal price for additional asset information.
method Solving a stochastic control problem with partial information and utility maximization.
result Investors choose to purchase information at a deterministic time.
New method detects information leakage using approximate Bayes predictor.
problem Unintentional exposure of sensitive information via observable data.
method Statistical learning theory and information theory framework, approximating Bayes predictor's log-loss and accuracy.
result MI can be accurately estimated to detect ILs, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.
Market strategies minimize Fisher information to minimize risk.
problem Applying minimum Fisher information principle to market dynamics.
method Analytical extension to quantum harmonic oscillator eigenstates and Gibbs distribution.
result Minimizing Fisher information reduces information and risk.
New approach quantifies overfitting in high-dimensional regression.
problem Quantifying and avoiding overfitting in large neural networks.
method Information bottleneck theory to minimize residual information while maximizing relevant bits.
result Characterized the relative information efficiency of randomized regression compared to optimal algorithms.
Proposes a new framework for decomposing information in multivariate settings.
problem Decomposing information from multiple sources about a target variable.
method Formal analogy with set theory and Blackwell order to define PID.
result Framework can be generalized to various information theories.
Unified notation simplifies information-theoretic concepts in machine learning.
problem Opaque notation for information-theoretic quantities in machine learning.
method Proposed a practical and unified notation for information-theoretic quantities.
result Unified notation facilitates new intuitions and rederivations in machine learning.
Paper explores how to use mixed types of side information for better recommendations.
problem Challenges in using heterogeneous side information for recommender systems.
method Proposes a framework to jointly capture flat and hierarchical side information.
result Demonstrates significant performance gains over state-of-the-art methods.
Study optimal portfolios for traders with asymmetric information and delay.
problem Optimizing portfolios for traders with delayed insider information.
method Anticipating stochastic calculus and white noise approach.
result Optimal portfolios maximize expected logarithmic utility under various financial models.
Strategic brokers exploit private information in broker-mediated markets, affecting informed traders' performance.
problem Strategic interactions and information leakage in broker-mediated markets.
method Study of strategic trading behavior and information leakage in a broker-mediated market.
result Brokers hold a strategic advantage over informed traders due to information leakage in trading flows.
Proposes a new method to enhance neural learning by maximizing information gain.
problem Improving neural learning by selecting key variables to maximize information gain.
method Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filter to quantify uncertainty and maximize information gain.
result The proposed method enables the neural network to learn more effectively from stochastic systems.
Measures information in neural networks via weights and activations.
problem Understanding how information is encoded and used in deep neural networks.
method Measures information via the optimal trade-off between accuracy and complexity of weights, defined by coding length.
result Establishes a relation between information in weights and effective information in activations, showing low complexity models generalize better and learn invariant representations.
Mirror descent linked to information ratio via Bayesian regret bounds.
problem Understanding stability in mirror descent and its relation to information ratio.
method Developed a connection between mirror descent and information ratio using Bayesian regret bounds.
result Mirror descent with suitable estimators and distributions achieves bounds similar to information-directed sampling.
Study shows changes in information sharing between Bitcoin markets during 2017 crash.
problem Understanding information dynamics in Bitcoin markets during the 2017 crash.
method Analysis of high-frequency market-microstructure observables using information theoretic measures.
result Temporal changes in information sharing across markets, including predictability, memory, and synchronous coupling.
Derives a new variational approach to information bottleneck.
problem Information theoretic inference and predictive modeling.
method Variational lower bound of predictive information bottleneck.
result Generalizes modern inference procedures and suggests new ones.
Study on optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
problem Optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
method Continuous signals are optimal, and any signal with a logit posterior distribution yields the same ex-ante value.
result Posterior expected payoff becomes normally distributed as information acquisition cost increases.
Study on information evolution in interactive decision making using multi-armed bandits.
problem Understanding information dynamics in interactive decision making.
method Stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, focusing on optimal arm with a fixed margin.
result Distinct growth phases in mutual information, showing decoupling between success probability and information gain.
Study reveals mutual information is crucial for understanding algorithm performance in stochastic convex optimization.
problem Uncertainty in capturing the exceptional performance of learning algorithms using existing information-theoretic generalization bounds.
method Examined the relationship between mutual information and generalization in stochastic convex optimization.
result Mutual information is necessary for true risk minimization in stochastic convex optimization, indicating existing bounds fall short.