We propose a nonparametric sequential test that aims to address two practical problems pertinent to online randomized experiments: (i) how to do a hypothesis test for complex metrics; (ii) how to prevent type error inflation under continuous monitoring. The proposed test does not require knowledge of the underlying…
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48 results for “sequentially randomized experiments”
Sequential Least-Squares Estimators with Fast Randomized Sketching for Linear Statistical Modelsstat.ML
A new method for estimating large-scale linear models with improved precision.
problem Estimating large-scale linear statistical models efficiently.
method Sequential Least-Squares Estimators with Fast Randomized Sketching (SLSE-FRS), integrating Sketch-and-Solve and Iterative-Sketching methods.
result SLSE-FRS produces high-precision estimators, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
New method uses randomized sparse neural networks to solve time-dependent PDEs more accurately and efficiently.
problem Numerical challenges in training neural networks sequentially in time to solve time-dependent PDEs.
method Introduces Neural Galerkin schemes that update randomized sparse subsets of network parameters at each time step.
result Up to two orders of magnitude more accurate and two orders of magnitude faster than dense update schemes.
Proposes a method to generate multivariate prediction intervals for random forests.
problem Uncertainty estimates for iterative design of experiments with multiple correlated model outputs.
method Recalibrated bootstrap method for bagged models.
result Significantly decreases the number of iterations required for satisfactory candidate in sequential learning problems.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
We develop a probabilistic framework for sequential random projection.
problem Challenges of sequential decision-making under uncertainty.
method Novel construction of a stopped process and method of mixtures.
result Achieved a non-asymptotic probability bound for random projection.
SIS-RNN improves model flexibility for sequential data.
problem Limited expressive power of existing stochastic RNNs.
method Semi-implicit variational inference for implicit latent representations.
result SIS-RNN outperforms existing methods in various tasks.
This research improves interpretability in sequential explanations using mental models.
problem Improving interpretability in sequential explanations between two parties.
method A reinforcement learning framework that selects explanations based on the explainee's mental model.
result Mental model-based policies increase interpretability over random selection in multiple sequential explanations.
Estimates causal effects from a single time-series without further assumptions.
problem Estimating causal effects from a single time-series without additional assumptions.
method Proposes a general class of averages of conditional causal parameters, estimated using a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE).
result Asymptotic consistency and normality of the TMLE for estimating causal parameters.
Estimates extreme probabilities using fewer simulations than Monte Carlo.
problem Estimating tail probabilities of complex systems efficiently.
method Builds a statistical surrogate with few evaluations and sequentially improves the estimate.
result Improves estimation of extreme probabilities with fewer simulations.
DARTS optimizes covariate selection in trials with limited data.
problem Limited budget for high-dimensional pretreatment data.
method Dynamic Adaptive Rerandomization via Thompson Sampling (DARTS).
result DARTS efficiently concentrates budget on informative features.
A hierarchical model shows how scaling laws emerge from sequential feature recovery.
problem Emergence of scaling laws from feature learning in multi-layer networks.
method Layer-wise spectral algorithm adapted to compositional structure, sequential feature detection.
result Sequential detection of latent features, leading to explicit power-law decay of prediction error.
On Uncertainty Estimation by Tree-based Surrogate Models in Sequential Model-based Optimizationstat.ML
A new tree-based model improves uncertainty estimation in sequential optimization.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in sequential model-based optimization.
method Proposed a new ensemble of randomized trees (BwO forest) with bagging and oversampling.
result BwO forest outperforms existing tree-based models in various optimization scenarios.
PDTS improves robustness in sequential decision-making.
problem Robust active task sampling for efficient and reliable decision-making.
method Characterizes robust active task sampling as a Markov decision process, proposes PDTS method.
result Significantly improves zero-shot and few-shot adaptation robustness.
Boosts change-point detection power with optimal sub-sampling.
problem Power loss in sequential change-point detection from large history data.
method Optimal sub-sampling of history data before kernel-based detection procedures.
result Improved detection performance in extensive experiments.
Bayesian sOED uses PG reinforcement learning for efficient experiment design.
problem Optimizing sequential experiments for nonlinear models with limited data.
method Formulated as POMDP, solved via PG methods with neural network parameterization.
result Demonstrated advantages over batch and greedy designs in contaminant source inversion.
We propose a general formalism of iterated random functions with semigroup property, under which exact and approximate Bayesian posterior updates can be viewed as specific instances. A convergence theory for iterated random functions is presented. As an application of the general theory we analyze convergence behaviors…
Proposes methods for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes robust to unconfoundedness violations.
problem Estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes using historical observational data when unconfoundedness is violated.
method Utilizes proximal causal inference framework to propose three nonparametric identification methods, a (K+1)-robust method, and establish a semiparametric efficiency bound.
result Establishes the (K+1)-robust method for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes, validating its efficiency and multiple robustness through numerical experiments.
Optimal tests developed for sequential experiments with asymptotic properties.
problem Performing hypothesis tests after sequential experiments without prior design.
method Analyze asymptotic properties of sequential experiments; develop tests for Gaussian process observations.
result Asymptotic power function of any test can be matched by a specific test in a limit experiment.
T-Rex selector selects variables fast and controls FDR in high-dimensional data.
problem Variable selection in high-dimensional data with FDR control.
method Fused solutions of early terminated random experiments.
result FDR control at target level with high variable selection power.
The paper develops a method for self-normalized inference in adaptive experiments.
problem Adaptive experiments require a fixed horizon for ATE estimation, but propensities can change.
method The method uses self-normalized martingale limit theory to estimate ATE.
result The Studentized statistic is asymptotically N(0,1) at the prespecified horizon.
New method estimates treatment effects over time with unobserved confounders.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with unobserved confounders.
method Sequential Deconfounder using Gaussian process latent variable model.
result Unbiased estimates of individualized treatment responses over time.
Randomized SINDy learns dynamic data structures using probabilistic methods.
problem Learning time-dependent data structures in dynamic systems.
method Sequential machine learning with a probabilistic approach, incorporating feature augmentation and Tikhonov regularization.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in regression and binary classification using real-world data.
Algorithm solves job acceptance problem with random arrivals and values.
problem Decision-making under random job arrivals and values with limited acceptance.
method Proposes Non-Parametric Sequential Allocation (NPSA) algorithm.
result Expected reward converges to optimality as sample size increases.
Bayesian SDOE method estimates QoIs from expensive black-box functions efficiently.
problem Estimating non-linear QoIs from expensive, unknown functions.
method Sequential design of experiments using Bayesian surrogate models and information gain.
result Method efficiently estimates QoIs with limited function evaluations.
Study optimal hedging for claims with random weights in discrete time.
problem Optimal hedging for claims with random weights in discrete time.
method Explicit recursive representation of optimal hedging strategy, without ND condition.
result Obtained explicit optimal hedging strategy in a recursive form.
New method reduces memory usage for high-dimensional variable selection.
problem Scalability issues in high-dimensional variable selection, especially in genomics.
method Adaptive sampling of null features to eliminate dummy matrix materialization.
result Reduces memory and runtime by several orders of magnitude while preserving FDR control.
Model-X test detects conditional independence in streaming data.
problem Detecting conditional independence in data streams with arbitrary dependency.
method Sequential testing inspired by model-X and testing by betting.
result Significantly reduces type-I error rate and enhances data efficiency.
We investigate the problem of sequentially predicting the binary labels on the nodes of an arbitrary weighted graph. We show that, under a suitable parametrization of the problem, the optimal number of prediction mistakes can be characterized (up to logarithmic factors) by the cutsize of a random spanning tree of the g…
New string kernels discover global properties through random feature maps, avoiding quadratic complexity.
problem Existing string kernels struggle with capturing long patterns, maintaining positive definiteness, and handling large datasets efficiently.
method Proposes a new class of global string kernels using random feature maps to discover global properties through global alignments, ensuring positive definiteness and linear computational cost.
result Random String Embeddings (RSE) achieve better or comparable accuracy to state-of-the-art methods, especially for longer strings.
The paper extends consistency results for sequential design strategies to vector-valued Gaussian processes.
problem Estimating excursion sets of vector-valued Gaussian processes.
method Clarifying the connection between continuous Gaussian processes and Gaussian measures in Banach spaces, extending concepts and properties from scalar-valued settings to vector-valued settings.
result Consistency results for sequential design strategies can be applied to vector-valued Gaussian processes.
A new method reduces hyperparameter tuning evaluations by using sequential tests.
problem Time-consuming hyperparameter tuning in machine learning.
method Sequential Random Search (SQRS) extending regular random search.
result SQRS finds similarly well-performing parameter settings with fewer evaluations.
Testing randomnessmath.PR
The paper reviews methods for testing randomness and exchangeability in sequential data.
problem Testing the randomness and exchangeability of sequential data.
method Conformal martingales for online testing of randomness and exchangeability.
result Valid and efficiency results for various conformal martingale-based procedures.
A new randomized tree classifier outperforms traditional CARTs.
problem Traditional greedy CARTs are slow and inaccurate.
method Optimal decision trees using continuous optimization.
result Randomized tree classifier outperforms traditional CARTs.
A new method for efficient inference in sequential latent-variable models.
problem Computational challenges in integrating subject-specific random effects.
method Anchored variational inference framework to approximate posterior distributions.
result The method achieves accurate estimation with significant computational gains.
BayesAME automatically determines coreset size for efficient model evaluation.
problem Time-consuming and computationally expensive evaluation of large generative models.
method Bayesian active model evaluation (BayesAME) that automatically selects coreset size.
result BayesAME consistently outperforms existing methods in diverse benchmarks.
A Constant Approximation Algorithm for Sequential Random-Order No-Substitution k-Median Clusteringcs.LG
New algorithm for clustering data streams with no substitutions.
problem Clustering sequential data with no point substitution.
method Careful risk estimation, linear bin division, multiscale center selection.
result First constant approximation algorithm for random-order k-median clustering.
Bayesian optimization improved for high-dimensional outputs using randomized priors.
problem Efficient global optimization of high-dimensional black-box functions.
method Deep learning framework with bootstrapped ensembles of neural architectures with randomized priors.
result Superior performance in tasks with high-dimensional outputs compared to state-of-the-art methods.
New methods optimize experiment selection for sequential data, improving model accuracy.
problem Optimizing experiment selection for sequential data in multidimensional cases.
method Adopting greedy experiment selection methods for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Proposed methods produce consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.
This paper presents a sequential randomized lowrank matrix factorization approach for incrementally predicting values of an unknown function at test points using the Gaussian Processes framework. It is well-known that in the Gaussian processes framework, the computational bottlenecks are the inversion of the (regulariz…
Recently, the Frank-Wolfe optimization algorithm was suggested as a procedure to obtain adaptive quadrature rules for integrals of functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with a potentially faster rate of convergence than Monte Carlo integration (and "kernel herding" was shown to be a special case of thi…
We consider the problem of estimating the set of all inputs that leads a system to some particular behavior. The system is modeled by an expensive-to-evaluate function, such as a computer experiment, and we are interested in its excursion set, i.e. the set of points where the function takes values above or below some p…
A new method reduces computational costs for testing RF variable importance measures.
problem Testing variable importance measures from random forests is computationally expensive and challenging.
method Sequential permutation testing and sequential p-value estimation to reduce computational costs.
result Theoretical properties of sequential tests are confirmed, maintaining type-I error and high power.
Gaussian processes help in modeling complex, nonlinear relationships in signal processing.
problem Modeling complex, nonlinear relationships in signal processing.
method Sequential inference for Gaussian processes.
result Gaussian processes enable efficient and accurate modeling of complex relationships.
For a finite function class we describe the large sample limit of the sequential Rademacher complexity in terms of the viscosity solution of a -heat equation. In the language of Peng's sublinear expectation theory, the same quantity equals to the expected value of the largest order statistics of a multidimensional $…
We address the problem of retrieving relevant experiments given a query experiment, motivated by the public databases of datasets in molecular biology and other experimental sciences, and the need of scientists to relate to earlier work on the level of actual measurement data. Since experiments are inherently noisy and…
We develop time-uniform confidence spheres for estimating means of random vectors.
problem Sequential mean estimation in high-dimensional spaces.
method Derive time-uniform confidence sphere sequences (CSSs) for various types of random vectors.
result Optimal CSSs for log-concave, sub-Gaussian, and sub- random vectors.
A new method reduces the cost of solving large-scale linear models.
problem Solving large-scale linear statistical models efficiently.
method Sequential Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient Method (SPCG).
result SPCG achieves OLS prediction accuracy with fewer iterations and less time.