Adaptive robust strategy improves online portfolio selection by managing market trends and costs.
problem Optimizing sequential investment decisions in volatile markets.
method Robust optimization with adaptive parameter adjustment.
result Adaptive scheme outperforms existing strategies in cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios.
Proposes a max-utility arm selection strategy for reducing cumulative regret in sequential query recommendations.
problem Reduces cumulative regret in sequential query recommendations for closed loop interactive learning settings.
method Proposes a max-utility arm selection strategy based on the maximum utility of arms.
result Improves cumulative regret substantially compared to baseline algorithms and random selection.
Meta-learning improves adaptability across diverse tasks.
problem Building efficient strategies that adapt to new tasks.
method Memory-based meta-learning, Bayesian framework, state-machine of sufficient statistics.
result Meta-learned strategies are near-optimal and efficient.
CRPS improves GP-based sequential design for chemical space.
problem Finding molecules with specific properties in synthetic chemistry.
method Threshold-weighted CRPS as acquisition function for GP models in sequential design.
result Improved performance in molecule research with CRPS-based strategies.
Sequential tests for two-sample and independence testing using betting strategies.
problem Testing sequential data for two-sample and independence without kernel selection issues.
method Prediction-based betting strategies that adaptively determine distribution and joint distribution.
result Prediction-based tests outperform kernel-based approaches in high-dimensional or structured data settings.
We consider an optimal investment and consumption problem for a Black-Scholes financial market with stochastic volatility and unknown stock appreciation rate. The volatility parameter is driven by an external economic factor modeled as a diffusion process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type with unknown drift. We use the dynami…
Study optimizes query strategy for private learning in eavesdropping scenarios.
problem Private sequential learning in the presence of eavesdropping.
method Developed new querying strategies and analytical techniques.
result Proved tight upper and lower bounds on optimal query complexity.
Gaussian process (GP) models have become a well-established frameworkfor the adaptive design of costly experiments, and notably of computerexperiments. GP-based sequential designs have been found practicallyefficient for various objectives, such as global optimization(estimating the global maximum or maximizer(s) of a …
The paper extends consistency results for sequential design strategies to vector-valued Gaussian processes.
problem Estimating excursion sets of vector-valued Gaussian processes.
method Clarifying the connection between continuous Gaussian processes and Gaussian measures in Banach spaces, extending concepts and properties from scalar-valued settings to vector-valued settings.
result Consistency results for sequential design strategies can be applied to vector-valued Gaussian processes.
Study optimal hedging for claims with random weights in discrete time.
problem Optimal hedging for claims with random weights in discrete time.
method Explicit recursive representation of optimal hedging strategy, without ND condition.
result Obtained explicit optimal hedging strategy in a recursive form.
The paper evaluates dynamic hedging strategies for various financial products.
problem Pricing derivative products with dynamic hedging and issuer-tailored risk.
method Unified constrained discrete stochastic dynamic programming framework with sequential local minimizing strategies.
result Demonstrates flexibility of the unified framework through numerical examples.
In this paper we propose an investing strategy based on neural network models combined with ideas from game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk. Our proposed strategy uses parameter values of a neural network with the best performance until the previous round (trading day) for deciding the investment in the curren…
One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more than two decades ago), provide numerical solutions to the nonlinear state estima…
Paper proposes a new framework for combining investment strategies without market-specific assumptions.
problem Lack of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework for decision-making in combining investment strategies.
method Introduces a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, free from market conditions and statistical assumptions.
result Proposed strategies outperform individual component strategies in long-term wealth accumulation, with small tradeoffs in Sharpe ratios.
Optimal timing strategy for mean-reverting price spreads.
problem Trading price spreads with mean-reverting characteristics.
method Sequential optimal stopping framework with refined signature method.
result Precise entry and exit timings that maximize gains.
Paper proposes a new method for efficient hyperparameter optimization.
problem Challenging task of optimizing hyperparameters in machine learning.
method Sequential Uniform Design (SeqUD) strategy for adaptive and efficient exploration of hyperparameter space.
result The proposed SeqUD strategy outperforms existing methods in hyperparameter optimization.
We study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price process with afinite deadline to enter and a separate finite deadline to exit the market. The price process is modeled by a diffusion with an affine drift that encapsulates a number of well-known models,including the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) model…
Sparse Gaussian process quantile regression tackles computational challenges in Bayesian quantile regression.
problem Nonconjugacy and computational cost in Gaussian process quantile regression.
method Sparse Gaussian process framework with Laplace approximation, adaptive inducing-input placement, and sequential data acquisition.
result Accuracy of Laplace approximation and effectiveness of adaptive mechanisms in reducing predictive uncertainty.
New active learning strategy improves decision-making accuracy.
problem Maximizing decision-making accuracy in sequential data acquisition.
method Introduces a novel active learning criterion that maximizes expected information gain on the posterior decision distribution.
result Improved performance in decision-making accuracy compared to existing alternatives.
Warm-start strategies speed up GP inference by 19x.
problem Efficient sequential inference in Gaussian processes.
method Three warm-start strategies exploiting smaller linear systems.
result Warm-starting achieves up to 19x speed-up in convergence.
Investigates optimal portfolio strategies in markets with latent side information.
problem Investment problem in markets with latent dependence structure and side information.
method Dynamic and constant portfolio strategies, analyzing log-optimal portfolio as benchmark.
result Optimal dynamic strategy growth rate asymptotically converges to constant strategy in stationary markets.
Bayesian method for estimating quantile sets efficiently.
problem Estimating quantile sets of expensive-to-evaluate functions.
method Bayesian active learning with Gaussian process modeling and Expected Estimator Modification (EEM).
result Efficient estimation of small quantile sets.
The design of multiple experiments is commonly undertaken via suboptimal strategies, such as batch (open-loop) design that omits feedback or greedy (myopic) design that does not account for future effects. This paper introduces new strategies for the optimal design of sequential experiments. First, we rigorously formul…
Paper improves deep learning for solving evolutionary equations with trainable hard constraints.
problem Low computational accuracy of standard PINNs in large temporal domains.
method Sequential learning strategies and trainable influence functions for hard constraints.
result Significantly improved computational accuracy and universality of the method.
Deep RL optimizes goal-based investing strategies.
problem Optimizing investment strategies for achieving financial goals.
method Novel deep reinforcement learning approach for goal-based investing.
result Superior performance compared to benchmarks.
Develops a new framework for analyzing sequential decision-making problems using information theory.
problem Lack of information-theoretic generalization bounds for sequential decision-making problems.
method Introduces a sequential supersample framework that separates learner filtration from proof-side enlargement, controlling the generalization gap by sequential CMI.
result Establishes a sequential CMI that controls the generalization gap in sequential decision-making problems.
This paper tackles efficient testing strategies for COVID-19 by using a partially observable MDP approach.
problem Greedy testing strategies miss dormant virus areas, leading to inefficient use of testing resources.
method Develops efficient learning strategies based on policy iteration and look-ahead rules for a sequential learning-based resource allocation problem.
result Shows that the testing problem can be effectively managed using a partially observable MDP approach.
Adaptive sequential testing optimizes epidemic control by learning optimal test strategies.
problem Optimizing test allocation in epidemics with network and temporal dependence.
method Adaptive sequential design with Online Super Learner for optimal test strategies.
result Superior performance in simulated university COVID-19 pandemic.
New method uses neural tangent kernel for efficient active learning.
problem Efficiently approximating deep learning's look-ahead selection criteria.
method Approximates retraining with neural tangent kernel for active learning.
result Approximation works asymptotically and enables sequential active learning.
GUESS improves surrogate model accuracy with adaptive sampling.
problem Creating accurate surrogate models with limited data.
method Gradient and Uncertainty Enhanced Sequential Sampling (GUESS) using predictive uncertainty and Taylor expansion.
result GUESS achieved highest sample efficiency compared to other strategies.
A new framework for mining high utility patterns in interval-based sequences.
problem Mining patterns in events that persist over varying time intervals and considering event utility.
method Integrates utility into interval-based sequences and proposes HUIPMiner algorithm with pruning strategy.
result HUIPMiner efficiently finds high utility patterns in real datasets.
Optimized parallel algorithms for identifying strong ties in data.
problem Identifying strong ties in data with varying distances and community sizes.
method Design and analysis of sequential and parallel algorithms for partitioned local depths.
result Optimized algorithms achieve up to 19.4x speedup in parallel execution.
We propose a patch sampling strategy based on a sequential Monte-Carlo method for high resolution image classification in the context of Multiple Instance Learning. When compared with grid sampling and uniform sampling techniques, it achieves higher generalization performance. We validate the strategy on two artificial…
Testing-by-betting strategies almost surely go bankrupt under null hypotheses.
problem Understanding the behavior of betting strategies under null hypotheses.
method Analyzed the asymptotics of betting strategies under null distributions, focusing on the almost sure divergence of sums.
result Testing-by-betting strategies go bankrupt with probability one under any non-degenerate null distribution.
Bayesian method for estimating inputs leading to specific probability outputs.
problem Estimating inputs for specific probability outputs of uncertain functions.
method Bayesian strategy using Gaussian process modeling and SUR principle.
result Surpassed performance of existing methods through numerical experiments.
Maximal Rate of Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction selects simulations to reduce uncertainty efficiently.
problem Efficiently estimating quantities of interest from multi-fidelity simulations.
method Bayesian sequential strategy that maximizes the ratio of expected uncertainty reduction to simulation cost.
result MR-SUR strategy unifies and provides principled approaches to develop new methods.
This study proposes an efficient surrogate for Darcy flow inverse problems.
problem Efficiently constructing accurate surrogate models for high-dimensional complex inverse problems.
method Sequential Bayesian design strategy to acquire a locally accurate surrogate model focusing on high-probability regions.
result The proposed method accelerates inversion accuracy and computational speed.
A new method for making interpretable predictions by sequentially asking questions, faster and more efficient.
problem Developing interpretable machine learning models for complex tasks.
method Variational Information Pursuit (V-IP) that bypasses the need for learning generative models.
result V-IP is 10-100x faster and finds shorter query chains compared to IP and reinforcement learning.
A new CNN approach for time series forecasting outperforms traditional RNNs.
problem Time series forecasting using conventional RNNs.
method Temporally folded convolutional neural networks (TFC's) for sequence forecasting.
result TFC's outperform conventional RNNs on sequential MNIST and JSB chorals datasets.
BIS uses bandits to efficiently sample from expensive-to-evaluate densities.
problem Sampling from computationally expensive target densities.
method Sequential selection through multi-armed bandits, optimizing sample set directly.
result BIS achieves accurate sampling with fewer evaluations than adaptive methods.
Improves RL planning by proposing sub-goals hierarchically.
problem Sequential planning assumption in RL.
method Divide-and-Conquer Monte Carlo Tree Search (DC-MCTS).
result Improves navigation and control tasks.
The paper demonstrates that falsifiability is fundamental to learning. We prove the following theorem for statistical learning and sequential prediction: If a theory is falsifiable then it is learnable -- i.e. admits a strategy that predicts optimally. An analogous result is shown for universal induction.
The paper ranks experts based on task performance with noisy evaluations.
problem Ranking experts based on their performance across multiple tasks with noisy evaluations.
method Develops adaptive strategies for ranking experts with a bound on the number of queries.
result Proves strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts with high probability.
Postprocessing reduces Bayesian optimization steps for global optima.
problem Slow convergence in Bayesian optimization for high-dimensional problems.
method Prohibits duplicated samples in the dataset postprocessing method.
result Significantly reduces the number of sequential steps to find the global optimum.
Study reveals efficient recovery of multi-modal signals via Bayesian methods and sequential learning.
problem Recovering multiple high-dimensional signals from correlated modalities.
method Bayesian Approximate Message Passing and Sequential Curriculum Learning.
result Sequential learning strategy optimally recovers weak signals in multi-modal settings.
New algorithm reduces interventional strategy complexity for causal graph discovery.
problem Designing efficient interventional strategies for causal graph discovery.
method Developed an r-adaptive algorithm for causal graph discovery that minimizes the number of interventions.
result Achieved an approximation of O(min{r, log n} * n^{1/min{r, log n}}) for the verification number.
The paper develops a method to learn cost-optimal sequential testing policies from retrospective data.
problem Learning cost-optimal sequential decision policies from retrospective data with missing test results.
method Doubly robust Q-learning framework with path-specific inverse probability weights.
result The method reduces testing cost without compromising predictive accuracy.
Optimal strategy for A/B/n testing with control in stratified populations.
problem Discovering which arms have higher weighted expectation than the control in stratified populations.
method Sequentially choosing one arm per time step based on weighted subpopulation means.
result The strategy is asymptotically optimal, ensuring correct answers with high probability.