A new model for sequential memory using temporal predictive coding.
problem Forming accurate memory of sequential stimuli in the brain.
method Proposes a novel PC-based model called temporal predictive coding (tPC).
result Shows that tPC models can accurately memorize and retrieve sequential inputs.
Proposes handling ambiguity in sequential data predictions.
problem Handling uncertainty in sequential data predictions.
method Extension of MHP model to recurrent architectures, introducing a novel metric.
result Achieved promising results on various sequential data tasks.
Paper tackles uncertainty prediction for deep sequential regression.
problem Challenges in generating accurate uncertainty estimates for deep recurrent networks.
method Flexible method that generates symmetric and asymmetric uncertainty estimates without stationarity assumptions.
result Outperforms competitive baselines on both drift and non-drift scenarios.
New approach optimizes decisions based on uncertainty in predictions.
problem Mismatch between prediction accuracy and decision loss in sequential design.
method Directional uncertainty-guided approach to sequential experimental design.
result Directional uncertainty-based design stops earlier and performs better.
Develops anytime-valid conformal and PAC prediction for streaming data.
problem Lack of guarantee in traditional conformal methods for sequential settings.
method Extends conformal and PAC prediction frameworks to handle streaming data.
result Provides anytime-valid prediction sets for sequential settings.
We consider the problem of sequential prediction and provide tools to study the minimax value of the associated game. Classical statistical learning theory provides several useful complexity measures to study learning with i.i.d. data. Our proposed sequential complexities can be seen as extensions of these measures to …
In this paper, we derive generic bounds on the maximum deviations in prediction errors for sequential prediction via an information-theoretic approach. The fundamental bounds are shown to depend only on the conditional entropy of the data point to be predicted given the previous data points. In the asymptotic case, the…
A new model for sequential prediction handles adversarial examples by allowing abstention.
problem Sequential prediction algorithms fail with adversarial examples, leading to incorrect predictions.
method Proposes a new model that allows abstention from predictions on adversarial examples, scaling error with VC dimension.
result A learner's error scales with the VC dimension of the hypothesis class, matching the stochastic setting.
A new algorithm for time series prediction intervals.
problem Non-exchangeability in time series data.
method Adaptive re-estimation of non-conformity scores.
result Significant reduction in interval width compared to existing methods.
Extends PPI to sequential setting, improving inference over time.
problem Sequential data growth with unlabelled data.
method Prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures using Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures.
result Asymptotically valid uniformly over time, accommodating prior knowledge.
Symmetric CNNs improve sequential recommendation and protein structure prediction.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in sequential recommendation and protein structure inference.
method Developed a CNN architecture that preserves symmetry in convolutional layers, using parameterized convolutional kernels.
result Symmetric structured CNNs achieve better performance with fewer parameters.
LatentTrack generates model parameters online for nonstationary data.
problem Online probabilistic prediction under nonstationary dynamics.
method Sequential neural architecture with latent filtering and amortized inference.
result Consistently lower negative log-likelihood and mean squared error than baselines.
Survey of algorithms to correct past mistakes in prediction.
problem Improving prediction accuracy by correcting past errors.
method Defensive Forecasting as a sequential game theory approach to minimize prediction metrics.
result Simple, near-optimal algorithms for various prediction tasks.
Proposes a new method for continual learning in neural networks.
problem Challenges in applying sequential Bayesian inference to neural networks.
method Sequential function-space variational inference.
result Neural networks trained with the proposed method achieve better predictive accuracy.
EvoRate metric assesses learnability of sequential data by measuring predictive information.
problem Model misspecification due to misinterpreting patterns in sequential data.
method Predictive information framework based on mutual information between past and future.
result Temporal patterns fundamentally constrain learnability; optimal predictors cannot outperform intrinsic information limit.
The number of methods available for classification of multi-label data has increased rapidly over recent years, yet relatively few links have been made with the related task of classification of sequential data. If labels indices are considered as time indices, the problems can often be seen as equivalent. In this pape…
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
Deep model learns protein interfaces from high-order interactions.
problem Predicting protein interfaces from amino acid pairs.
method Graph neural networks and convolutional neural networks for 2D dense predictions.
result Our method consistently improves interface prediction performance.
Empirical law predicts accuracy of Google Translate's translation chains.
problem Predicting accuracy in machine translation with multiple hops.
method Empirical testing of Google Translate's sequential translation.
result Accuracy decreases with the number of translating hops, following a power law.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.
Universal preconditioning reduces sequential prediction regret.
problem Improving sequential prediction performance.
method Convolve target sequence with orthogonal polynomial coefficients.
result First sublinear and hidden-dimension-independent regret bounds.
We develop a model to predict effects of sequential interventions, clarifying their combined impact.
problem Uncertainty in generalizing behavioral predictions for combinations of interventions.
method Explicit model for composition of interventions, identifying their combined effect.
result Our compositional model aids prediction in sparse data conditions.
Predicts next item in sequential bundles using Transformers.
problem Predicting next item in sequentially consumed bundles.
method Used custom Transformers, GPT-3, LSTM, reinforcement learning, Markov models.
result Custom Transformer with decoder-only architecture most accurate.
Proposes a method to generate multivariate prediction intervals for random forests.
problem Uncertainty estimates for iterative design of experiments with multiple correlated model outputs.
method Recalibrated bootstrap method for bagged models.
result Significantly decreases the number of iterations required for satisfactory candidate in sequential learning problems.
Novel Hilbert space Gaussian process improves sequential design accuracy and efficiency.
problem Efficiently implementing Gaussian process acquisition functions for expensive simulations.
method Proposed a truncated eigenbasis representation for closed-form evaluation of IMSE acquisition function.
result Significantly lower prediction error and reduced computation time compared to benchmarks.
Sequential tests for two-sample and independence testing using betting strategies.
problem Testing sequential data for two-sample and independence without kernel selection issues.
method Prediction-based betting strategies that adaptively determine distribution and joint distribution.
result Prediction-based tests outperform kernel-based approaches in high-dimensional or structured data settings.
New method improves reliability of object detection models.
problem Lack of reliability in neural networks for safety-critical applications.
method Sequential Conformal Risk Control (SeqCRC) for object detection.
result Valid statistical guarantees for any dataset size without prior knowledge.
Framework predicts melt pool geometry with AI, improving manufacturing quality.
problem Achieving consistent product quality in Metal Additive Manufacturing.
method Surprise-guided sequential learning framework integrating CTGAN for limited data.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy for melt pool dimensions.
Study on sequential prediction with log-loss, focusing on well-specified and misspecified cases.
problem Sequential prediction with log-loss under different specification conditions.
method Analysis of cumulative regret in well-specified and misspecified cases for a Gaussian location hypothesis class.
result Cumulative regrets in well-specified and misspecified cases asymptotically coincide for the d d d -dimensional Gaussian location hypothesis class. Prediction in a small-sized sample with a large number of covariates, the "small n, large p" problem, is challenging. This setting is encountered in multiple applications, such as precision medicine, where obtaining additional samples can be extremely costly or even impossible, and extensive research effort has recentl…
SurvSurf predicts first hitting times for intermittent events without monotonic violations.
problem Predicting first hitting times for intermittent events with monotonicity guarantees.
method Partially monotonic neural network for sequential events, incorporating unobserved events.
result SurvSurf outperforms existing models in MSE and IBS metrics.
New insights on active sequential prediction for mean estimation.
problem Active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation problem.
method Combining uncertainty-based suggestion with a constant probability, analyzing non-asymptotic bounds, and using no-regret learning.
result The optimal query probability is close to the constraint when using no-regret learning.
Hybrid model for online nonlinear prediction using LSTM and soft GBDT.
problem Online nonlinear prediction with manual feature selection and model selection issues.
method End-to-end architecture with LSTM for feature extraction and soft GBDT for regression, jointly optimized.
result Significant performance improvements over conventional methods on real datasets.
In this paper, we obtain fundamental L p \mathcal{L}_{p} L p bounds in sequential prediction and recursive algorithms via an entropic analysis. Both classes of problems are examined by investigating the underlying entropic relationships of the data and/or noises involved, and the derived lower bounds may all be quantified in…
PoPPy is a Point Process toolbox based on PyTorch, which achieves flexible designing and efficient learning of point process models. It can be used for interpretable sequential data modeling and analysis, e.g., Granger causality analysis of multi-variate point processes, point process-based simulation and prediction of…
EviTrack improves sequential prediction in delayed disambiguation scenarios.
problem Challenges in sequential prediction with delayed disambiguation where early observations are ambiguous.
method EviTrack operates over latent trajectories, applying evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data.
result EviTrack outperforms sampling-based baselines in a controlled synthetic benchmark, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery.
Efficient methods for answering complex probabilistic queries in sequential data.
problem Complex probabilistic queries in sequential data.
method Broad class of novel approximation techniques for marginalization in sequential models.
result Efficient techniques for answering long-range probabilistic queries.
A new tree-based model improves uncertainty estimation in sequential optimization.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in sequential model-based optimization.
method Proposed a new ensemble of randomized trees (BwO forest) with bagging and oversampling.
result BwO forest outperforms existing tree-based models in various optimization scenarios.
TIMeSynC combines financial service interactions for intent prediction.
problem Aligning and learning from multi-domain, multi-resolution sequences for accurate intent prediction.
method An encoder-decoder transformer model addressing sequence alignment, temporal dynamics, and dynamic/static sequence combination.
result Significant improvement in intent prediction over existing methods.
Develops BPDS for better financial portfolio decisions.
problem Model uncertainty in financial time series forecasting.
method Bayesian dynamic modelling and predictive decision synthesis.
result Improved predictive and decision outcomes compared to traditional Bayesian analysis.
Language evolves over time in many ways relevant to natural language processing tasks. For example, recent occurrences of tokens 'BERT' and 'ELMO' in publications refer to neural network architectures rather than persons. This type of temporal signal is typically overlooked, but is important if one aims to deploy a mac…
Discrete Flow Maps bypass sequential prediction limits for parallel text generation.
problem Sequential autoregressive prediction limits large language model speed.
method Flow Maps compress generative trajectories into single-step mappings.
result Discrete Flow Maps surpass previous state-of-the-art results in discrete flow modeling.
Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions. Here, we use an ensemble of decadal climate predictions to demonstrate the abilit…
New SMC method for pBNNs improves scalability and predictive performance.
problem Training pBNNs with high-dimensional stochastic parameters.
method Gradient-based proposals within SMC samplers.
result New method outperforms state-of-the-art in predictive performance and training time.
Unsupervised framework learns symmetry from time sequences.
problem Learning symmetry from time sequences without labeled data.
method Meta-sequential prediction (MSP) framework that leverages stationary properties.
result Hidden disentangled structure emerges as a by-product of training.
Proposes a method to predict time series data using scale information.
problem Sequential data exhibits different behavior at different scales.
method Scale-based inference using k k k -nearest neighbors and sequential prediction. result Asymptotically, the algorithm produces the best prediction error.
LSTM and gradient boosting models fail to outperform random chance in predicting MNQ futures.
problem Predicting intraday direction in MNQ futures using LSTM and gradient boosting.
method Comparing LSTM and gradient boosting models on 944 trading days of MNQ futures data.
result No model achieves statistically significant accuracy above random chance.
The paper studies the distance from calibration in sequential prediction, proving upper and lower bounds.
problem The challenge is to measure and minimize the deviation from perfect calibration in sequential binary prediction.
method The approach involves proving an O ( T ) O(\sqrt{T}) O ( T ) upper bound and an Ω ( T 1 / 3 ) Ω(T^{1/3}) Ω ( T 1/3 ) lower bound, using structural results and minimax arguments. result An O ( T ) O(\sqrt{T}) O ( T ) upper bound on the calibration distance is achieved, with an Ω ( T 1 / 3 ) Ω(T^{1/3}) Ω ( T 1/3 ) lower bound showing the inherent difficulty.