A new sequential method estimates Poisson means in streaming data, achieving optimality and efficiency.
problem Estimating Poisson means in a streaming, or online, framework.
method A quasi-Bayesian approach based on Newton's algorithm for a sequential estimate.
result Established frequentist guarantees including consistency and asymptotic optimality.
New insights on active sequential prediction for mean estimation.
problem Active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation problem.
method Combining uncertainty-based suggestion with a constant probability, analyzing non-asymptotic bounds, and using no-regret learning.
result The optimal query probability is close to the constraint when using no-regret learning.
This paper studies statistical estimation in optional regression models.
problem Estimating parameters in regression models with optional semimartingale processes.
method Structural least squares (LS) estimates and their sequential versions.
result Strong consistency of LS-estimates and fixed accuracy of sequential LS-estimates.
Paper proposes a 1-bit mean estimation method with near-optimal sample complexity.
problem Distributed mean estimation with 1-bit communication constraints.
method Randomized and sequentially-chosen interval queries to estimate mean.
result Sample complexity bound matches minimax lower bound with logarithmic factors.
We develop time-uniform confidence spheres for estimating means of random vectors.
problem Sequential mean estimation in high-dimensional spaces.
method Derive time-uniform confidence sphere sequences (CSSs) for various types of random vectors.
result Optimal CSSs for log-concave, sub-Gaussian, and sub-ψ random vectors. We study the value of information in sequential compressed sensing by characterizing the performance of sequential information guided sensing in practical scenarios when information is inaccurate. In particular, we assume the signal distribution is parameterized through Gaussian or Gaussian mixtures with estimated mean…
This paper proposes a method to evaluate policies using quantile metrics, improving upon existing mean-based approaches.
problem Evaluating policies using mean-based metrics ignores the variability of outcomes, especially in skewed reward distributions.
method The paper introduces a doubly-robust inference procedure for quantile off-policy evaluation using deep conditional generative learning.
result The proposed estimator outperforms classical OPE estimators for mean outcomes in heavy-tailed reward distributions.
Novel mean estimation method under user-level differential privacy reduces noise in continual mean estimates.
problem Maintaining accurate running mean estimates under user-level differential privacy.
method Developed a novel mean estimation specific factorization under approximate differential privacy.
result Achieved asymptotically lower mean-squared error bounds in continual mean estimation.
New method for estimating counterfactual means in adaptive experiments.
problem Inference for counterfactual means in sequentially designed experiments with adaptive treatment policies.
method Latent factor model and nearest neighbors method for estimation.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for counterfactual means established.
Unified framework for robust A/B testing under model misspecification.
problem Improving sample efficiency in A/B testing with model misspecification.
method Unified framework for contextual bandit and dynamic settings, proving worst-case mean squared error bounds.
result Empirically validated approach using synthetic and real-world datasets.
New method uses Fokker-Planck equation for sampling and inference.
problem Intractability of evaluating probability density in practical applications.
method Reformulates Fokker-Planck equation as a particle flow method, using velocity field.
result Turns intractable density evaluation into an advantage for variational inference, kernel mean embeddings, and sequential Monte Carlo.
Unified technique for sequential estimation of convex divergences.
problem Estimating convex divergences between distributions.
method Martingale methods and maximal inequalities for reverse submartingales.
result Valid time-uniform confidence sequences for arbitrary stopping times.
Paper presents robust confidence sequences for means with known moment bounds and arbitrary corruption.
problem Tackles robustness to outliers and adversarial corruptions in mean estimation.
method Designs new robust exponential supermartingales to create confidence sequences.
result Achieves optimal width and shows smaller margin of error compared to fixed-time robust methods.
New method uses online learning to improve AIPW estimators for adaptively collected data.
problem Estimating treatment effects with adaptively collected data.
method Online learning to minimize sequentially weighted estimation error.
result Local minimax lower bound shows optimality of AIPW estimator.
Combines experimental and historical data for robust policy evaluation.
problem Policy evaluation with mixed data sources, especially experimental vs historical.
method Linear integration of estimators from experimental and historical data, optimized for MSE minimization.
result Proposed estimators outperform traditional methods in ridesharing company data.
We extend CS divergence to conditional distributions and show its advantages in time series data and sequential decision making.
problem Quantifying the closeness between conditional distributions.
method Developed and estimated a conditional Cauchy-Schwarz divergence using kernel density estimation.
result Conditional CS divergence outperforms previous methods in time series clustering and sequential decision making.
In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for the evolution of the volatility, and a flexible sequential volatility updating is …
Kernel adaptive filters (KAF) are a class of powerful nonlinear filters developed in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). The Gaussian kernel is usually the default kernel in KAF algorithms, but selecting the proper kernel size (bandwidth) is still an open important issue especially for learning with small sample s…
Adaptive batching improves Gaussian process surrogates for noisy level set estimation.
problem Learning the level set of noisy simulator responses.
method Developed four novel adaptive batching schemes for Gaussian process metamodels.
result Adaptive batching brings significant computational speed-ups with minimal loss of modeling fidelity.
Clustering with fast algorithms large samples of high dimensional data is an important challenge in computational statistics. Borrowing ideas from MacQueen (1967) who introduced a sequential version of the k-means algorithm, a new class of recursive stochastic gradient algorithms designed for the k-medians loss cri…
Paper develops an efficient mean estimator for 1-bit communication constraints.
problem Mean estimation under 1-bit communication constraints.
method Adaptive mean estimator based on randomized threshold queries.
result Order-optimal sample complexity in various tail regimes.
We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm i…
The paper extends consistency results for sequential design strategies to vector-valued Gaussian processes.
problem Estimating excursion sets of vector-valued Gaussian processes.
method Clarifying the connection between continuous Gaussian processes and Gaussian measures in Banach spaces, extending concepts and properties from scalar-valued settings to vector-valued settings.
result Consistency results for sequential design strategies can be applied to vector-valued Gaussian processes.
Optimal timing strategy for mean-reverting price spreads.
problem Trading price spreads with mean-reverting characteristics.
method Sequential optimal stopping framework with refined signature method.
result Precise entry and exit timings that maximize gains.
VAR-GPs solve continual learning by updating posteriors sequentially.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning tasks.
method Sparse inducing point approximations and auto-regressive variational distribution.
result VAR-GPs prevent catastrophic forgetting and outperform baselines.
We consider the problem of sequential learning from categorical observations bounded in [0,1]. We establish an ordering between the Dirichlet posterior over categorical outcomes and a Gaussian posterior under observations with N(0,1) noise. We establish that, conditioned upon identical data with at least two observatio…
New method solves constrained stochastic optimization problems efficiently.
problem Online statistical inference of constrained stochastic nonlinear optimization problems.
method Stochastic Sequential Quadratic Programming (StoSQP) with iterative sketching solver.
result The rescaled primal-dual sequence converges to a mean-zero Gaussian distribution.
The paper addresses bias in fraud detection models by improving label recovery in payment networks.
problem Systematic bias in chargeback labels in payment networks.
method Formalizes the observation pipeline as a sequential missing-data problem with three stages and a corruption layer. Constructs the Sequential Triply Robust (STR) estimator to correct for all four impairments simultaneously.
result Achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound and provably dominates naive chargeback-based training in mean squared error.
This paper solves the normalizability crisis in sequential inference by introducing bounded information geometry.
problem Structural failure in standard sequential inference architectures when dealing with extreme outliers.
method Non-parametric field actions and bounded information geometry to truncate infinite tails of spatial distributions.
result Empirical benchmarks across three domains show robust estimation without infinite-tailed distributional assumptions.
A new method reduces hyperparameter tuning evaluations by using sequential tests.
problem Time-consuming hyperparameter tuning in machine learning.
method Sequential Random Search (SQRS) extending regular random search.
result SQRS finds similarly well-performing parameter settings with fewer evaluations.
Study aims to optimize financial investments by balancing risk and reward efficiently.
problem Balancing risk and reward in dynamic financial investments.
method Proposes a reinforcement learning method to maximize expected quadratic utility, focusing on first and second moments of rewards.
result The proposed method yields MV-efficient policies that maximize expected reward without increasing variance.
Gaussian process (GP) models have become a well-established frameworkfor the adaptive design of costly experiments, and notably of computerexperiments. GP-based sequential designs have been found practicallyefficient for various objectives, such as global optimization(estimating the global maximum or maximizer(s) of a …
Proposes methods for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes robust to unconfoundedness violations.
problem Estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes using historical observational data when unconfoundedness is violated.
method Utilizes proximal causal inference framework to propose three nonparametric identification methods, a (K+1)-robust method, and establish a semiparametric efficiency bound.
result Establishes the (K+1)-robust method for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes, validating its efficiency and multiple robustness through numerical experiments.
Expected signatures map data streams to lower dimensions, improving ML performance.
problem Leveraging model-free embeddings for domain-agnostic machine learning.
method Expected signatures map data streams to lower dimensions, with convergence results bridging empirical and theoretical estimators.
result A modified expected signature estimator with lower mean squared error for martingale processes.
In recent years, active subspace methods (ASMs) have become a popular means of performing subspace sensitivity analysis on black-box functions. Naively applied, however, ASMs require gradient evaluations of the target function. In the event of noisy, expensive, or stochastic simulators, evaluating gradients via finite …
DeepBlip estimates treatment effects over time using neural networks.
problem Estimating treatment effects over time with interpretable blip effects.
method DeepBlip uses a novel double optimization trick to enable simultaneous learning of blip functions with sequential neural networks.
result DeepBlip achieves state-of-the-art performance across various clinical datasets.
Reduces change detection to estimation using confidence sequences.
problem Detecting changes in data streams with minimal delay and false alarms.
method Reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences.
result Change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions and strong guarantees.
A new method for Bayesian inference using diffusion models.
problem Bayesian inference in simulator-based models.
method Score-based diffusion models trained with a sequential training procedure.
result Comparable or superior performance compared to existing methods.
A universal framework for constructing confidence sets using sequential likelihood mixing.
problem Constructing reliable confidence sets for realizable likelihood functions.
method Sequential likelihood mixing, integrating Bayesian inference and regret inequalities.
result Establishes fundamental connections and provable coverage guarantees for various inference techniques.
This review assesses deep-learning methods for complex sequential data.
problem Lack of robustness and transparency in deep-learning frameworks for irregular sequential data.
method Systematic literature review of existing algorithms.
result Recurrent neural networks dominate in performance evaluation of deep-learning frameworks.
A new algorithm optimizes unknown functions with noisy data and unmatched features.
problem Sequentially maximizing a function with unknown and noisy data and features not under control.
method Bayesian conditional mean embedding and Gaussian process for uncertainty.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms.
Dual Bayesian Affine Estimators for Wiener-type state-space models
problem Estimating parameters in Wiener-type state-space models
method Fixed-point architecture combining two affine estimators
result Dual basis-parameter estimator achieves comparable parameter MSE to purely affine estimator
Given iid observations from an unknown absolute continuous distribution defined on some domain Ω, we propose a nonparametric method to learn a piecewise constant function to approximate the underlying probability density function. Our density estimate is a piecewise constant function defined on a binary partition o…
Persistent sampling improves SMC efficiency by retaining and reusing particles.
problem High computational costs and particle impoverishment in SMC.
method Persistent sampling (PS) retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations, using multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions.
result PS achieves more accurate posterior approximations and lower variance in marginal likelihood estimates without additional likelihood evaluations.
This work optimizes identifying good arms in nonparametric multi-armed bandits.
problem Efficiently identifying arms with high means in nonparametric settings.
method Combining reward-maximizing sampling with a nonparametric sequential test for anytime-valid labeling.
result Achieves minimax optimal stopping times for identifying arms above a threshold.
PEAK tests means of multiple data streams with sequential betting.
problem Testing means of multiple data streams with nonparametric methods.
method Sequential, nonparametric testing using a betting scheme.
result PEAK provides up to 85% reduction in samples for stopping.
Optimal algorithm for high-dimensional stochastic linear bandits with sparse parameters.
problem High-dimensional stochastic linear bandits with sparse parameters.
method Three-stage arm selection algorithm using thresholded Lasso for estimation.
result Achieves exact minimax optimality in cumulative regret.
The paper addresses estimating long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with missing data, especially monotone missing.
method The paper introduces the sequential missingness assumption for identification and proposes three novel estimation methods: inverse probability weighting, sequential regression imputation, and SeqMSM. It also introduces a balancing-enhanced approach, BalanceNet, to improve estimation accuracy.
result The proposed methods, including BalanceNet, effectively estimate long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.