New distributed EnKF method for non-sequential assimilation of large datasets.
problem Computational intensity and order dependencies in traditional EnKF.
method Distributed computing for full model error covariance matrix.
result Non-sequential assimilation outperforms sequential in performance.
Paper compares semi-supervised training for differentiable particle filters.
problem Lack of labelled data in real-world applications.
method Compares two semi-supervised training objectives.
result Improved performance in environments with scarce labelled data.
Develops Bayesian filtering for online learning and related problems.
problem Sequential machine learning challenges, especially non-stationarity, model misspecification, and high dimensionality.
method Modular adaptive framework, provably robust filter, and sequential parameter updates.
result Improved performance in dynamic, high-dimensional, and misspecified models.
Improved state estimation in high-dimensional models using Zig-Zag Sampler.
problem Weight degeneracy in particle filtering methods for high-dimensional state space models.
method Discrete Zig-Zag Sampler applied within the Composite MH Kernel of SMCMC framework.
result Improves estimation accuracy and increases acceptance ratio in high-dimensional state estimation.
New framework improves robust inference in HMMs under model misspecification.
problem Inference in general state-space HMMs under likelihood misspecification.
method Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods.
result Improved performance in object tracking and Gaussian process regression.
PF-RNNs use particle filtering to model uncertainty in RNNs for better sequential data prediction.
problem Highly variable and noisy sequential data.
method PF-RNNs maintain a latent state distribution as a set of particles, updating with Bayes rule.
result PF-RNNs outperform standard RNNs on various sequence prediction tasks.
Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework, the dimension of the target distribution grows with each time step, thus it is nec…
This paper studies when particle filtering is efficient for planning in partially observed systems.
problem The efficiency of particle filtering for planning in partially observed linear dynamical systems.
method Coupling of ideal and approximate sequences to bound particle complexity.
result Polynomially many particles suffice for stable systems to approximate optimal planning.
A new variational method for SSMs improves inference efficiency.
problem Hard variational inference for state space models.
method Proposes variational marginal particle filter (VMPF) based on Rao-Blackwellization.
result VMPF provides tighter variational bounds and sometimes benefits from unbiased reparameterization.
PF-based FSO methods improve on SGD and IPM for large-scale empirical risk minimization.
problem Optimizing large-scale empirical risk minimization problems efficiently.
method Developed PF-based stochastic optimizers (PFSOs) based on FSO methods.
result PFSOs outperform SGD, vanilla IPM, and KF-type FSO methods in stability, speed, and flexibility.
LatentTrack generates model parameters online for nonstationary data.
problem Online probabilistic prediction under nonstationary dynamics.
method Sequential neural architecture with latent filtering and amortized inference.
result Consistently lower negative log-likelihood and mean squared error than baselines.
Improved robustness for high-dimensional Kalman filtering.
problem Convergence issues in sequential variational inference filter (VIF).
method Variational Kalman Filtering with Hinf-based correction.
result Improved feasibility and robustness in high-dimensional systems.
New research connects evolutionary dynamics to Bayesian learning.
problem Connecting evolutionary biology and Bayesian learning.
method Rigorous mathematical proof using Kushner-Stratonovich equation and gradient flows.
result Discrete time filtering equations converge to Stratonovich interpretation of Kushner-Stratonovich equation.
When used as a surrogate objective for maximum likelihood estimation in latent variable models, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) produces state-of-the-art results. Inspired by this, we consider the extension of the ELBO to a family of lower bounds defined by a particle filter's estimator of the marginal likelihood, the …
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology that generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approxi…
Develops an online learning framework for Bayesian joint filtering.
problem Streaming inference of nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational inference and sequential Monte Carlo.
result Efficient approximation of filtering posterior for a wide class of models.
A new particle filter uses diffusion models to improve state estimation from noisy data.
problem Sequentially estimating the state of a dynamical system from noisy and incomplete observations.
method Uses a diffusion model to simulate and predict system dynamics, incorporating noisy observations to refine predicted states.
result An unbiased particle filtering method that rigorously fuses observational data with diffusion model simulations.
A new differentiable resampling method for Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Improving the efficiency and differentiability of resampling in Monte Carlo simulations.
method Proposes a diffusion model surrogate for resampling, proving consistency and outperforming existing methods.
result The proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art differentiable resampling methods on various benchmarks.
Paper introduces IO-NPF for efficient Bayesian experimental design.
problem Efficient Bayesian experimental design in non-exchangeable settings.
method Inside-Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF) for non-Markovian state-space models.
result IO-NPF achieves O(T2) computational complexity, improving efficiency. DualSMC combines filtering and planning for continuous POMDPs.
problem Handling multi-modal state distributions and uncertainty in continuous POMDPs.
method DualSMC network that combines SMC for filtering and planning, with adversarial particle filter and uncertainty-dependent policy.
result DualSMC effectively handles complex observations and remains interpretable.
Many nonlinear extensions of the Kalman filter, e.g., the extended and the unscented Kalman filter, reduce the state densities to Gaussian densities. This approximation gives sufficient results in many cases. However, this filters only estimate states that are correlated with the observation. Therefore, sequential esti…
Optimizes particle filtering for non-stationary environments.
problem Tracking and adapting to non-stationary environments in online prediction.
method Formulated an efficient particle filtering method using online mirror descent algorithm.
result Achieves optimal particle efficiency in non-stationary environments.
This paper presents the construction of a particle filter, which incorporates elements inspired by genetic algorithms, in order to achieve accelerated adaptation of the estimated posterior distribution to changes in model parameters. Specifically, the filter is designed for the situation where the subsequent data in on…
Podcast recommendations improved by analyzing user listening paths.
problem Challenges in recommending podcasts effectively.
method Analyzes user listening paths as sequential trajectories for recommendations.
result 450% increase in effectiveness over baseline.
The paper studies how to improve language model inference using particle filtering.
problem Understanding the accuracy-cost tradeoffs of inference-time methods for large language models.
method Introduces particle filtering algorithms like Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to study language model inference.
result Identifies criteria enabling non-asymptotic guarantees for SMC and fundamental limits faced by all particle filtering methods.
A new model for context-aware recommendations using LSTM and latent context.
problem Challenges in incorporating context into recommendation models, especially sparsity and dimensionality issues.
method Sequential latent context modeling using LSTM, reducing context dimensions to a compressed latent space.
result The proposed SLCM outperforms state-of-the-art CARS models in empirical analysis.
New method improves generative model performance by fully conditioning variational posteriors.
problem Inaccurate inference due to partial conditioning of variational posteriors in sequential LVMs.
method Introduces fully-conditioned approximate posteriors to improve generative model performance.
result Improves generative modelling and multi-step prediction performance.
PSMF factorizes time-varying datasets into a dictionary and time-varying coefficients.
problem Factorizing time-varying and non-stationary datasets with temporal nonlinearities.
method Probabilistic Sequential Matrix Factorization (PSMF) using nonlinear Gaussian state-space models and approximate extended Kalman filtering.
result PSMF can account for temporal nonlinearities and estimate generic subspace models.
Optimal recommendation system using user and item clustering.
problem Maximizing recommendation accuracy with limited feedback.
method Latent variable model with user and item clustering, exploiting i.i.d. structure.
result Near-optimal algorithm that combines item and user structures.
HCFContext predicts mobile context using collaborative filtering and homomorphic encryption.
problem Accurate mobile context determination for enterprise policies.
method Proposes HPContext and HCFContext models using sequential history and collaborative filtering, with privacy-preserving homomorphic encryption.
result HCFContext enhances context prediction by leveraging related users' observations.
EnEMF uses Epanechnikov kernel for high-dimensional filtering, improving accuracy and robustness.
problem Suboptimal Gaussian mixture kernel density estimates in high-dimensional settings.
method Ensemble Epanechnikov mixture filter (EnEMF) using optimal Epanechnikov kernel.
result EnEMF reduces error per particle on high-dimensional systems like Lorenz '96.
Kernel adaptive filters (KAF) are a class of powerful nonlinear filters developed in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). The Gaussian kernel is usually the default kernel in KAF algorithms, but selecting the proper kernel size (bandwidth) is still an open important issue especially for learning with small sample s…
Zap predicts user behavior online using diverse techniques.
problem Predicting user behavior on websites.
method Combines sequential data processing techniques with Bloom filters, bucketing, and model calibration.
result Creates website- and task-specific models without website-specific code.
New particle filter estimates model evidence without bias.
problem Unbiased estimation of marginal likelihood for model comparison.
method Particle filter with rejection control.
result Unbiased estimation of marginal likelihood.
Novel approach to Bayesian experimental design for non-exchangeable data.
problem Optimal experimental design for non-exchangeable data.
method Inside-Out SMC2 algorithm embedded in particle Markov chain Monte Carlo framework. result Efficacy demonstrated on a set of dynamical systems.
Bayesian framework for sequential learning tasks with low-rank approximations.
problem Balancing knowledge retention and adaptability in sequential neural networks.
method Bayesian framework with diagonal plus low-rank approximations of the precision matrix.
result Unlocking capabilities to encode task relationships and incorporate prior knowledge from later tasks.
The Kalman filter (KF) is used in a variety of applications for computing the posterior distribution of latent states in a state space model. The model requires a linear relationship between states and observations. Extensions to the Kalman filter have been proposed that incorporate linear approximations to nonlinear m…
This work preserves linear invariants in ensemble filters for non-Gaussian data assimilation.
problem Maintaining critical invariants like mass, stoichiometric balance, and charge in non-Gaussian data assimilation.
method Introducing a novel class of nonlinear ensemble filters using measure transport theory.
result Recovery of a constrained Kalman filter for Gaussian settings and combination with regularization techniques.
A new flow-based Bayesian filter tackles high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems.
problem Bayesian filtering for high-dimensional nonlinear systems is challenging due to non-Gaussian distributions and computational limitations.
method Integrates normalizing flows to construct a latent linear state-space model with efficient density estimation and sampling.
result Demonstrates superior accuracy and efficiency in numerical experiments.
A new online algorithm reduces Gaussian process complexity for real-time data.
problem High computational complexity in Gaussian process regression for sequential data.
method Ensemble Kalman Filter applied to Gaussian process regression.
result Reduces computational complexity while maintaining prediction accuracy.
The accuracy of least squares calibration using option premiums and particle filtering of price data to find model parameters is determined. Derivative models using exponential Lévy processes are calibrated using regularized weighted least squares with respect to the minimal entropy martingale measure. Sequential impor…
On-line estimation plays an important role in process control and monitoring. Obtaining a theoretical solution to the simultaneous state-parameter estimation problem for non-linear stochastic systems involves solving complex multi-dimensional integrals that are not amenable to analytical solution. While basic sequentia…
Many kinds of data can be represented as a network or graph. It is crucial to infer the latent structure underlying such a network and to predict unobserved links in the network. Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodel (MMSB) is a promising model for network data. Latent variables and unknown parameters in MMSB have bee…
NSF models generate speech waveforms faster and better than WaveNet.
problem Efficiently generating speech waveforms for statistical parametric synthesis.
method Neural source-filter (NSF) models that combine sine-based excitation, non-AR filter, and conditional preprocessing.
result NSF models generate waveforms 100 times faster than WaveNet and have better quality.
Online method for state estimation and parameter learning in SSMs.
problem State estimation and parameter learning in state-space models.
method Stochastic gradient optimization of variational lower bound, using backward decompositions and Bellman recursions.
result Ability to operate online without revisiting historic observations.
In this work, a novel sequential Monte Carlo filter is introduced which aims at efficient sampling of high-dimensional state spaces with a limited number of particles. Particles are pushed forward from the prior to the posterior density using a sequence of mappings that minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence between…
Proposes CVRCF for streaming recommender systems combining deep learning and probabilistic models.
problem Streaming recommendation problem with dynamic data and complexity.
method Coupled Variational Recurrent Collaborative Filtering (CVRCF) framework integrating stochastic processes and deep factorization models.
result Favorable performance in temporal dependency modeling and predictive accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Particle filtering is a powerful approach to sequential state estimation and finds application in many domains, including robot localization, object tracking, etc. To apply particle filtering in practice, a critical challenge is to construct probabilistic system models, especially for systems with complex dynamics or r…