A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
SurvSurf predicts first hitting times for intermittent events without monotonic violations.
Proposes OC4Seq for detecting anomalies in discrete event sequences.
Variational autoencoder models dynamic latent graphs for neural point processes.
A new framework generates high-dimensional event sequences efficiently.
We consider the sequential anomaly detection problem in the one-class setting when only the anomalous sequences are available and propose an adversarial sequential detector by solving a minimax problem to find an optimal detector against the worst-case sequences from a generator. The generator captures the dependence i…
We propose a multi-label multi-task framework based on a convolutional recurrent neural network to unify detection of isolated and overlapping audio events. The framework leverages the power of convolutional recurrent neural network architectures; convolutional layers learn effective features over which higher recurren…
Sepsis is a life-threatening condition that seriously endangers millions of people over the world. Hopefully, with the widespread availability of electronic health records (EHR), predictive models that can effectively deal with clinical sequential data increase the possibility to predict sepsis and take early preventiv…
Sequential modelling with self-attention has achieved cutting edge performances in natural language processing. With advantages in model flexibility, computation complexity and interpretability, self-attention is gradually becoming a key component in event sequence models. However, like most other sequence models, self…
We develop a probabilistic framework for sequential random projection.
Efficient methods for answering complex probabilistic queries in sequential data.
Mining frequent sequential patterns consists in extracting recurrent behaviors, modeled as patterns, in a big sequence dataset. Such patterns inform about which events are frequently observed in sequences, i.e. what does really happen. Sometimes, knowing that some specific event does not happen is more informative than…
Study rare-event simulation for neural networks and random forests.
Sequential pattern mining is an interesting research area with broad range of applications. Most prior research on sequential pattern mining has considered point-based data where events occur instantaneously. However, in many application domains, events persist over intervals of time of varying lengths. Furthermore, tr…
Clinical outcome prediction based on the Electronic Health Record (EHR) plays a crucial role in improving the quality of healthcare. Conventional deep sequential models fail to capture the rich temporal patterns encoded in the longand irregular clinical event sequences. We make the observation that clinical events at a…
A new method estimates rare failure events in complex systems.
Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance sampling---to impute the missing events in an incomplete sequence. We develop a trainable fa…
LOBDIF predicts limit order book events using a diffusion model.
ADD-THIN improves TPP forecasting by handling long-term data sequences.
New model explains volatility after extreme stock market events.
PoPPy is a Point Process toolbox based on PyTorch, which achieves flexible designing and efficient learning of point process models. It can be used for interpretable sequential data modeling and analysis, e.g., Granger causality analysis of multi-variate point processes, point process-based simulation and prediction of…
We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the 'next-best' data point (set of parameters) that when evaluated results in improv…
Paper introduces efficient methods for probabilistic querying of event sequences.
TriTPP models enable faster and more flexible event data modeling.
New CUSUM method detects changes in Hawkes networks efficiently.
Data of practical interest - such as personal records, transaction logs, and medical histories - are sequential collections of events relevant to a particular source entity. Recent studies have attempted to link sequences that represent a common entity across data sets to allow more comprehensive statistical analyses a…
Survival analysis is a hotspot in statistical research for modeling time-to-event information with data censorship handling, which has been widely used in many applications such as clinical research, information system and other fields with survivorship bias. Many works have been proposed for survival analysis ranging …
Parity calibration aims to predict increase-decrease events, not values.
In this paper we assume a multivariate risk model has been developed for a portfolio and its capital derived as a homogeneous risk measure. The Euler (or gradient) principle, then, states that the capital to be allocated to each component of the portfolio has to be calculated as an expectation conditional to a rare eve…
Graph neural networks detect anomalies in object-centric business processes.
Paper formalizes a reinforcement learning model for complex information structures.
Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes (LBDTPP) is a semi-autoregressive framework for generating asynchronous event sequences.
Recent progress in applying machine learning for jet physics has been built upon an analogy between calorimeters and images. In this work, we present a novel class of recursive neural networks built instead upon an analogy between QCD and natural languages. In the analogy, four-momenta are like words and the clustering…
Large volume of networked streaming event data are becoming increasingly available in a wide variety of applications, such as social network analysis, Internet traffic monitoring and healthcare analytics. Streaming event data are discrete observation occurred in continuous time, and the precise time interval between tw…
Knowledge graph reasoning is a critical task in natural language processing. The task becomes more challenging on temporal knowledge graphs, where each fact is associated with a timestamp. Most existing methods focus on reasoning at past timestamps and they are not able to predict facts happening in the future. This pa…
HYPA-DBGNN detects anomalous sequential patterns in temporal graphs.
Most real-world datasets, and particularly those collected from physical systems, are full of noise, packet loss, and other imperfections. However, most specification mining, anomaly detection and other such algorithms assume, or even require, perfect data quality to function properly. Such algorithms may work in lab c…
This review assesses deep-learning methods for complex sequential data.
New method detects and locates changes in spatio-temporal point processes.
Predicts next item in sequential bundles using Transformers.
Paper proposes active learning for mining conflict dynamics from textual data.
Agent-based model simulates market dynamics with real-time order matching.
Multivariate time series are routinely encountered in real-world applications, and in many cases, these time series are strongly correlated. In this paper, we present a deep learning structural time series model which can (i) handle correlated multivariate time series input, and (ii) forecast the targeted temporal sequ…
ET-GP-UCB optimizes time-varying functions without knowing change rates.
We introduce a method which enables a recurrent dynamics model to be temporally abstract. Our approach, which we call Adaptive Skip Intervals (ASI), is based on the observation that in many sequential prediction tasks, the exact time at which events occur is irrelevant to the underlying objective. Moreover, in many sit…
Optimal Kelly strategy for multi-outcome parlay bets proven using implicit cash approach.
In recent years, active subspace methods (ASMs) have become a popular means of performing subspace sensitivity analysis on black-box functions. Naively applied, however, ASMs require gradient evaluations of the target function. In the event of noisy, expensive, or stochastic simulators, evaluating gradients via finite …
Objective: A clinical decision support tool that automatically interprets EEGs can reduce time to diagnosis and enhance real-time applications such as ICU monitoring. Clinicians have indicated that a sensitivity of 95% with a specificity below 5% was the minimum requirement for clinical acceptance. We propose a highper…
STRODE learns timings and dynamics from unlabeled time series data.