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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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12.5%25.0%37.5%50.0% · May 199319922001200920172026
48 results for sequential covariate shift

This paper examines how adversarial perturbations affect model performance and equilibrium learning.

problem Adversarial perturbations and covariate shifts impact model performance and equilibrium learning.
method Characterizes the extrapolation region in regression and classification, analyzes dynamics of adversarial learning games.
result Establishes two directional convergence results: a blessing in regression and a curse in classification.

M-FISHER detects and adapts to streaming data shifts with statistical validity and stability.

problem Detecting and adapting to distributional shifts in streaming data.
method Constructs an exponential martingale from non-conformity scores and applies Ville's inequality for detection. Fisher-preconditioned updates for adaptation.
result Establishes M-FISHER as a principled approach for robust, anytime-valid detection and geometrically stable adaptation.

This work tackles sequential data learning challenges by improving neural network robustness to non-iid distribution shifts.

problem Sequential data learning challenges, particularly non-iid distribution shifts across batches.
method Cramér-Rao-based regularization using Fisher Information Matrix to adapt to sequential covariate shifts.
result Achieves 19% accuracy improvement over state-of-the-art methods.

Adaptive monitoring for AI systems detects and diagnoses shifts in data distribution.

problem Continuous monitoring of AI systems to detect and address unsafe behavior.
method Weighted-conformal martingales (WCTMs) for online monitoring of AI systems.
result Improved performance over state-of-the-art baselines on real-world datasets.

This paper rethinks confidence calibration under covariate shifts.

problem Calibration methods struggle with covariate shifts and unstable importance weighting.
method Derives Expectation consistency condition and proposes Expectation consistency loss (ECL).
result ECL loss is compatible with various types of calibration and has the same sample complexity as ECE.

Paper tackles backwards-compatible data adaptation for confounded covariate and label shifts.

problem Adapt covariates to predict labels confounded with covariate shifts.
method Proposes confounded shift framework based on minimizing divergence between source and target conditional distributions, conditioning on confounders.
result Demonstrates approach on synthetic and real datasets, achieving backwards-compatible data adaptation.

This paper improves computational efficiency in kernel ridge regression under covariate shift.

problem Covariate shift in nonparametric regression.
method Random projections in RKHS to reduce computational demands.
result Significant computational savings can be achieved without compromising learning performance under covariate shift.

New similarity measure for covariate shift improves nonparametric regression rates.

problem Improving nonparametric regression under covariate shift.
method Introducing a new similarity measure based on probability ratios.
result Shows a sharper rate of convergence compared to transfer exponent.

This paper explores how effective sample size, dimensionality, and model performance are related in covariate shift adaptation.

problem Understanding the relationship between effective sample size, dimensionality, and generalization in covariate shift adaptation.
method Building a unified theory connecting effective sample size, data dimensionality, and generalization in the context of covariate shift adaptation.
result Dimensionality reduction or feature selection can increase effective sample size, supporting the practice of reducing dimensionality before covariate shift adaptation.

Bayesian framework improves uncertainty estimates under covariate shifts.

problem Neural networks' unreliable uncertainty estimates under covariate shifts.
method Adaptive prior conditioned on training and new covariates, amortized variational inference.
result Significantly improved uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.

Bayesian model averaging fails under covariate shift, affecting neural networks' performance.

problem Bayesian model averaging's failure in neural networks under covariate shift.
method Explained the issue and proposed novel priors to improve robustness.
result Bayesian model averaging is problematic under covariate shift, especially with linear feature dependencies.

Unified learning bound for covariate and concept shifts.

problem Generalization under distribution shift in machine learning.
method Support-agnostic definitions of covariate and concept shifts using entropic optimal transport, leading to a unified error bound applicable to various loss functions and label spaces.
result Development of estimators for shifts with concentration guarantees and the DataShifts algorithm for quantifying and estimating the error bound.

Optimally tackles covariate shift in RKHS-based nonparametric regression.

problem Covariate shift in nonparametric regression over RKHS.
method Two families of covariate shift problems defined using likelihood ratios. Minimax rate-optimal estimators for KRR and reweighted KRR.
result KRR is minimax rate-optimal and strictly sub-optimal compared to naive estimator under covariate shift.

New estimator handles covariate shift with closed-form solution and super-efficiency.

problem Handling covariate shift in missing data and causal inference problems.
method Minimum Wasserstein distance estimation framework.
result Closed-form expression and super-efficiency relative to semiparametric efficient estimator.

Proposes a method to improve regression model performance with limited target data using fused-regularizer.

problem Model shifts and covariate shifts in high-dimensional regression.
method Two-step method with fused-regularizer to leverage source data for target task.
result Robust to covariate shifts, minimax-optimal under certain conditions, and validated by numerical tests.

The paper proves a new method to improve generalization in covariate-shift scenarios.

problem Improving performance on test distributions that differ from training distributions.
method Independence-driven importance weighting algorithms for feature selection.
result Theoretical proof that these algorithms can identify optimal variables for covariate-shift generalization.

SGDm with fixed step-size diverges under covariate shift, similar to a parametric oscillator.

problem SGDm with fixed step-size diverges under covariate shift.
method Approximated learning system as a time-varying system of ODEs and characterized divergence/convergence modes.
result SGDm with fixed step-size can diverge under covariate shift, similar to resonance in oscillators.

Algorithm calibrates predictions for covariate shift using domain adaptation.

problem Uncertainty estimates overestimate certainty when real-world data differs from training data.
method Uses importance weighting and learns a feature map to equalize distributions.
result Outperforms existing approaches in calibrated prediction when covariate shift occurs.

Paper addresses off-policy evaluation and learning with covariate shift.

problem Evaluating and training a new policy using historical data with a covariate shift.
method Derives efficiency bounds and proposes doubly robust estimators for OPE and OPL under covariate shift.
result Proposes estimators for off-policy evaluation and learning under covariate shift.

Structured credal learning separates covariate shift and label disagreement.

problem Uncertainty in real-world learning tasks due to covariate shift and noisy labels.
method Introduces a structured credal learning framework that explicitly separates these sources.
result Geometric bounds and decomposition reveal how covariate shifts affect label disagreement contributions.

This paper establishes non-asymptotic learning bounds for the DR covariate shift adaptation.

problem Distribution shift between training and test domains in machine learning.
method Doubly-robust (DR) estimator combining density ratio estimation and pilot regression model.
result First non-asymptotic learning bounds for DR covariate shift adaptation.

Paper tackles unbounded density ratio estimation for covariate shift adaptation.

problem Understudied challenge in statistical learning: unbounded density ratios.
method Three-step estimation method: relative density ratio, truncation, and transformation.
result Established rigorous convergence guarantees for density ratio and regression estimators.

Paper proposes SJS model to estimate model performance under covariate and label shifts.

problem Estimating model performance when both covariates and labels shift.
method Sparse Joint Shift (SJS) model and SEES algorithm.
result SEES achieves significant shift estimation error improvements over existing approaches.

The paper analyzes how re-weighting helps in reducing variance in high-dimensional kernel methods under covariate shifts.

problem The challenge of high-dimensional kernel methods under covariate shifts and the role of re-weighting.
method Derives asymptotic expansion of high-dimensional kernels under covariate shifts, analyzes bias-variance decomposition, and characterizes the regularized kernel.
result Re-weighting helps in decreasing variance and can be seen as a data-dependent regularization.

Extends FJS analysis to general label spaces, including classification and regression.

problem Distribution shift in general label spaces, including covariate and label shifts.
method Proposes a framework for analyzing FJS in general label spaces and generalizes existing results.
result Generalizes FJS analysis to general label spaces, including classification and regression.

Unified framework for semi-supervised regression with misspecified models.

problem Estimating regression coefficients in conditional mean models with unlabeled data.
method Developed an augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) method using regularized calibrated estimators for PS and OR nuisance models.
result The proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and provides valid confidence intervals even with misspecified OR models and high-dimensional data.

Proposes a new method to adapt to covariate shifts in supervised learning.

problem Covariate shift in training and testing samples with different marginal distributions.
method Minimax risk classification (MRC) approach that weights both training and testing samples.
result Significantly enhanced classification performance in synthetic and empirical experiments.

Improved covariate shift handling with node-based Bayesian neural networks.

problem Improving generalization under covariate shift in neural networks.
method Introduced node-based Bayesian neural networks that learn latent noise variables to represent input corruptions.
result Node-based BNNs perform well under covariate shift due to input perturbations, improving uncertainty estimation and robustness.