This study examines how sequential correlations affect in-context learning in sequence models.
problem Understanding how in-context learning works with sequentially correlated data.
method Extended linear regression model to sequentially correlated data, tested on transformer architectures.
result Sequential correlations alter the effective context length and attention architecture effectiveness.
New Hermite series estimator for Spearman rank correlation in non-stationary data.
problem Estimating time-varying Spearman rank correlation efficiently.
method Hermite series based sequential estimator for both stationary and non-stationary settings.
result Competitive performance compared to existing algorithms in simulations and real data.
SOR-Mamba improves Mamba for robust time series forecasting by minimizing channel order bias.
problem Robust time series forecasting with Mamba's sequential order bias.
method SOR-Mamba incorporates regularization to minimize channel order discrepancy and introduces CCM for channel correlation preservation.
result SOR-Mamba enhances robustness to channel order and improves forecasting accuracy.
New SMC sampler improves diffusion model sampling efficiency.
problem Sampling generative diffusion models efficiently.
method Constructs correlated observation paths and designs a sampler.
result Improved statistical efficiency, especially under outlier conditions.
Study reveals efficient recovery of multi-modal signals via Bayesian methods and sequential learning.
problem Recovering multiple high-dimensional signals from correlated modalities.
method Bayesian Approximate Message Passing and Sequential Curriculum Learning.
result Sequential learning strategy optimally recovers weak signals in multi-modal settings.
Diffusion models mimic human actions in sequential tasks.
problem Cloning human behavior in dynamic environments is challenging.
method Adapting diffusion models to handle stochastic, multimodal, and correlated actions.
result Diffusion models closely replicate human behavior in robotic and gaming tasks.
We propose a penalized orthogonal-components regression (POCRE) for large p small n data. Orthogonal components are sequentially constructed to maximize, upon standardization, their correlation to the response residuals. A new penalization framework, implemented via empirical Bayes thresholding, is presented to effecti…
NARD extends ARD for linear models, promoting sparsity and correlation structure.
problem Sparse relationships between inputs and outputs, capturing correlation structure.
method Matrix normal prior with sparsity-inducing parameter, iterative updates, sequential evaluation, and surrogate function approximation.
result Significant computational efficiency improvements with comparable performance.
We study the relationship between catastrophic forgetting and properties of task sequences. In particular, given a sequence of tasks, we would like to understand which properties of this sequence influence the error rates of continual learning algorithms trained on the sequence. To this end, we propose a new procedure …
GIB improves neural network generalization by dynamically selecting task-relevant features across different sequential environments.
problem Poor generalization of deep neural networks to unseen environments.
method Proposes a gated information bottleneck (GIB) approach that dynamically drops spurious correlations and selects task-relevant features.
result GIB outperforms other IB approaches in adversarial robustness and OOD detection.
Proposes a new model for online anomaly detection in multivariate time series.
problem Inaccurate anomaly detection in multivariate time series due to spurious correlations and lack of temporal causality.
method Clusters channels based on correlations, embeds each cluster, and integrates information through a causal mixer while maintaining temporal causality.
result Consistently superior performance across six public benchmark datasets.
SGD recovers multiple signal vectors in noisy tensor PCA.
problem Estimating multiple signal vectors from noisy tensor observations.
method Online stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in high dimensions with detailed analysis of correlations.
result Sequential elimination of correlations allows recovery of all spikes from Np−2 samples. A semi-recurrent hybrid VAE-GAN model for generating sequential data is introduced. In order to consider the spatial correlation of the data in each frame of the generated sequence, CNNs are utilized in the encoder, generator, and discriminator. The subsequent frames are sampled from the latent distributions obtained b…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are powerful and effective for processing sequential data. However, RNNs are usually considered "black box" models whose internal structure and learned parameters are not interpretable. In this paper, we propose an interpretable RNN based on the sequential iterative soft-thresholding al…
Automates machine learning of correlations between knot invariants.
problem Discovering and validating new relationships between knot invariants.
method Trained a neural network on 200,000 sets of knot invariants to predict an output invariant.
result Found novel correlations not explained by known results in knot theory.
Since manually labeling training data is slow and expensive, recent industrial and scientific research efforts have turned to weaker or noisier forms of supervision sources. However, existing weak supervision approaches fail to model multi-resolution sources for sequential data, like video, that can assign labels to in…
Many nonlinear extensions of the Kalman filter, e.g., the extended and the unscented Kalman filter, reduce the state densities to Gaussian densities. This approximation gives sufficient results in many cases. However, this filters only estimate states that are correlated with the observation. Therefore, sequential esti…
D2PCCA integrates deep learning and probabilistic modeling for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems with probabilistic understanding.
method Combines deep learning and probabilistic modeling, using KL annealing and normalizing flows.
result Captures latent dynamics in sequential datasets with improved convergence and flexibility.
Multivariate boosted trees improve forecasting and control by capturing correlated predictions.
problem Capturing multivariate target cross-correlations and applying structured penalties to predictions.
method A computationally efficient algorithm for fitting multivariate boosted trees.
result Multivariate trees outperform univariate counterparts in correlated prediction scenarios.
Characterizing temporal dependence patterns is a critical step in understanding the statistical properties of sequential data. Long Range Dependence (LRD) --- referring to long-range correlations decaying as a power law rather than exponentially w.r.t. distance --- demands a different set of tools for modeling the unde…
Introduces recency bias to improve time-series forecasting.
problem Lack of recency bias in standard Transformer attention for time-series data.
method Reweights attention scores with a smooth heavy-tailed decay to emphasize nearby observations.
result Recency-biased attention consistently improves sequential modeling and achieves competitive performance on time-series forecasting benchmarks.
The medoid of a set of n points is the point in the set that minimizes the sum of distances to other points. It can be determined exactly in O(n^2) time by computing the distances between all pairs of points. Previous works show that one can significantly reduce the number of distance computations needed by adaptively …
Proposes a method to generate multivariate prediction intervals for random forests.
problem Uncertainty estimates for iterative design of experiments with multiple correlated model outputs.
method Recalibrated bootstrap method for bagged models.
result Significantly decreases the number of iterations required for satisfactory candidate in sequential learning problems.
SPRT-TANDEM improves sequential classification accuracy with fewer samples.
problem Efficiently classifying sequential data with high accuracy and low sampling cost.
method Deep neural network-based SPRT algorithm that estimates log-likelihood ratio of two hypotheses.
result SPRT-TANDEM achieves statistically significantly better classification accuracy than other classifiers with fewer samples.
CTGAN synthesizes population data for travel behavior simulation.
problem Synthesizing population data for agent-based transportation modeling.
method Composite Travel Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN).
result Consistent and accurate generation of synthetic populations with tabular and sequential mobility data.
Paper proposes a new method to handle missing data in medical records using sequential variational autoencoders.
problem Missing data in medical records due to sensor off-times and uneven data collection.
method Sequential variational autoencoders (VAEs) with a new methodology called Shi-VAE.
result Shi-VAE achieves the best performance in terms of both metrics compared to state-of-the-art methods.
BDC uses Distance Correlation for efficient Bayesian optimization of expensive functions.
problem Efficiently optimizing expensive black-box functions with Bayesian methods.
method Integrates Bayesian optimization with Distance Correlation for automatic exploration and exploitation.
result BDC performs similarly to popular BO methods on benchmark tests and real terrain optimization.
Geometric QHD tests improve hub detection in correlated data.
problem Detecting hubs in correlated data with evolving correlations.
method Geometric QHD tests combining QCD and QHD, clustering.
result Improved hub detection in correlated data.
The article proposes optimal learning strategies for machine learning-based reliability analysis.
problem Improving computational efficiency and accuracy in machine learning-based reliability analysis.
method Theorems and mathematical proofs for optimal learning strategies considering and neglecting correlations among design samples.
result The optimal learning strategy considering Kriging correlation outperforms other methods in terms of reduced evaluations of performance functions.
We study the problem of detecting an abrupt change to the signal covariance matrix. In particular, the covariance changes from a "white" identity matrix to an unknown spiked or low-rank matrix. Two sequential change-point detection procedures are presented, based on the largest and the smallest eigenvalues of the sampl…
Detects anomalies in multiple processes using hidden Markov models.
problem Detecting an anomalous process among many with hidden states.
method Sequential search strategy using ADHM algorithm.
result ADHM algorithm effectively leverages temporal correlations.
Researchers develop a new SMC sampler for Wishart processes to improve dynamic covariance inference.
problem Challenging inference of dynamic covariance in various scientific fields.
method Introduce Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for the Wishart process.
result SMC sampling provides more robust estimates and out-of-sample predictions of dynamic covariance.
Proposes a sequential framework for fairness in multiple sensitive attributes.
problem Fairness in the presence of multiple sensitive attributes.
method Sequential framework using multi-marginal Wasserstein barycenters.
result Closed-form solution for sequentially fair predictor.
This work improves testing of machine learning model modifications using novel statistical methods.
problem Overfitting and conservative Bonferroni correction when testing multiple model modifications.
method Introduces alpha-recycling and SRGPs to control error rate and approve more beneficial modifications.
result Novel statistical methods approve a higher number of beneficial modifications than previous approaches.
Applied statisticians use sequential regression procedures to produce a ranking of explanatory variables and, in settings of low correlations between variables and strong true effect sizes, expect that variables at the very top of this ranking are truly relevant to the response. In a regime of certain sparsity levels, …
Develops a bi-variate stochastic framework to model mortality and interest rates with long-range dependence.
problem Captures long-range dependence and instantaneous correlation in mortality and interest rates.
method Mixed fractional Brownian motions, analytical solutions, risk-neutral measure, sequential parameter estimation.
result Explicit pricing of zero-coupon bonds and extreme mortality bonds, practical implications for pricing and risk management.
SurvSurf predicts first hitting times for intermittent events without monotonic violations.
problem Predicting first hitting times for intermittent events with monotonicity guarantees.
method Partially monotonic neural network for sequential events, incorporating unobserved events.
result SurvSurf outperforms existing models in MSE and IBS metrics.
Multivariate time series are routinely encountered in real-world applications, and in many cases, these time series are strongly correlated. In this paper, we present a deep learning structural time series model which can (i) handle correlated multivariate time series input, and (ii) forecast the targeted temporal sequ…
Exact simulation of correlated binary outcomes using PMF constraints and linear programming.
problem Simulating dependent Bernoulli outcomes with specific means and correlations.
method Formulate the problem over the joint Bernoulli PMF, impose constraints, and solve as a linear program. Use convex-hull characterization and truncated-moment completion scheme for feasibility and simulation.
result Exact simulation framework for correlated binary outcomes, providing a convex-hull characterization and truncated-moment completion scheme.
New method improves multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization by accounting for local correlations and varying noise.
problem Existing multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization methods assume global correlation and constant noise, which limits performance.
method Proposes an MF emulation method that learns noise models for each data source and leverages locally correlated LF sources.
result Improves performance of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization by accounting for local correlations and varying noise.
We study optimal behavior of energy producers under a CO_2 emission abatement program. We focus on a two-player discrete-time model where each producer is sequentially optimizing her emission and production schedules. The game-theoretic aspect is captured through a reduced-form price-impact model for the CO_2 allowance…
A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation structure between the observation and state innovation vectors and we extend the…
New setting combines state evolution and corrupted context for better decision-making.
problem Decision-making in a changing state with unreliable context.
method Proposes a new algorithm using a referee to dynamically combine contextual bandit and multi-armed bandit policies.
result Improved empirical performance compared to existing algorithms.
SYNC learns time-aware causal representations to improve model generalization in evolving domains.
problem Spurious correlations and shortcut learning in existing EDG methods hinder model generalization.
method SYNC integrates dynamic causal factors and causal mechanism drifts into a sequential VAE framework.
result SYNC achieves superior temporal generalization performance on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Research shows continual learning challenges in confounded datasets.
problem Challenges in mitigating confounders in continual learning settings.
method Formal description of continual confounders, construction of ConCon dataset.
result Standard continual learning methods fail to ignore confounders.
We present a novel view that unifies two frameworks that aim to solve sequential prediction problems: learning to search (L2S) and recurrent neural networks (RNN). We point out equivalences between elements of the two frameworks. By complementing what is missing from one framework comparing to the other, we introduce a…
Paper proposes a method to speed up discrete diffusion models by distilling many steps into few.
problem Challenges in capturing dependencies between elements in discrete diffusion models.
method Proposes 'mixture' models and loss functions to distill many sampling steps into few.
result Effective in distilling pretrained discrete diffusion models across image and language domains.
Proposes a max-utility arm selection strategy for reducing cumulative regret in sequential query recommendations.
problem Reduces cumulative regret in sequential query recommendations for closed loop interactive learning settings.
method Proposes a max-utility arm selection strategy based on the maximum utility of arms.
result Improves cumulative regret substantially compared to baseline algorithms and random selection.