A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper proposes an efficient method for estimating ATEs using adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) with minimal sample size and high accuracy.
method The paper defines and uses the efficient treatment-assignment probability to sequentially assign treatments, estimating ATEs using an Adaptive Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (A2IPW) estimator.
result The proposed experimental design and A2IPW estimator achieve the minimized semiparametric efficiency bound and provide anytime valid confidence intervals for early stopping.
We analyze the problem of sequential probability assignment for binary outcomes with side information and logarithmic loss, where regret---or, redundancy---is measured with respect to a (possibly infinite) class of experts. We provide upper and lower bounds for minimax regret in terms of sequential complexities of the …
In treatment allocation problems the individuals to be treated often arrive sequentially. We study a problem in which the policy maker is not only interested in the expected cumulative welfare but is also concerned about the uncertainty/risk of the treatment outcomes. At the outset, the total number of treatment assign…
Since manually labeling training data is slow and expensive, recent industrial and scientific research efforts have turned to weaker or noisier forms of supervision sources. However, existing weak supervision approaches fail to model multi-resolution sources for sequential data, like video, that can assign labels to in…
In this paper, we present a novel sequential paradigm for classification in crowdsourcing systems. Considering that workers are unreliable and they perform the tests with errors, we study the construction of decision trees so as to minimize the probability of mis-classification. By exploiting the connection between pro…
This research note combines two methods that have recently improved the state of the art in language modeling: Transformers and dynamic evaluation. Transformers use stacked layers of self-attention that allow them to capture long range dependencies in sequential data. Dynamic evaluation fits models to the recent sequen…
We present a recurrent neural network memory that uses sparse coding to create a combinatoric encoding of sequential inputs. Using several examples, we show that the network can associate distant causes and effects in a discrete stochastic process, predict partially-observable higher-order sequences, and enable a DQN a…
SLHF uses sequential game theory to optimize preferences from human feedback.
problem Optimizing preferences from human feedback in sequential settings.
method SLHF frames the problem as a sequential-move game between Leader and Follower, decomposing the optimization into refinement and adversarial optimization.
result SLHF achieves strong alignment across diverse preference datasets and scales to large models.
Understanding how a learned black box works is of crucial interest for the future of Machine Learning. In this paper, we pioneer the question of the global interpretability of learned black box models that assign numerical values to symbolic sequential data. To tackle that task, we propose a spectral algorithm for the …
Study on predicting sequences with Gaussian constraints, linking to intrinsic volumes and metric complexity.
problem Predicting sequences almost as well as the best Gaussian distribution with mean in a given subset.
method Expressed minimax regret in terms of intrinsic volumes, established comparison inequality for Wills functional, characterized global covering numbers and local Gaussian widths.
result Sharp estimates on the log-Laplace transform of intrinsic volume sequence for a general nonconvex set.
Societies often rely on human experts to take a wide variety of decisions affecting their members, from jail-or-release decisions taken by judges and stop-and-frisk decisions taken by police officers to accept-or-reject decisions taken by academics. In this context, each decision is taken by an expert who is typically …
The free energy functional has recently been proposed as a variational principle for bounded rational decision-making, since it instantiates a natural trade-off between utility gains and information processing costs that can be axiomatically derived. Here we apply the free energy principle to general decision trees tha…
This paper explores the possibility of near-optimally solving multi-agent, multi-task NP-hard planning problems with time-dependent rewards using a learning-based algorithm. In particular, we consider a class of robot/machine scheduling problems called the multi-robot reward collection problem (MRRC). Such MRRC problem…
We present a parallel algorithm that computes the ask and bid prices of an American option when proportional transaction costs apply to the trading of the underlying asset. The algorithm computes the prices on recombining binomial trees, and is designed for modern multi-core processors. Although parallel option pricing…