Strong stability of ergodic iterations proven without ergodic driving sequence.
problem Ensuring strong stability of ergodic iterations under non-ergodic driving sequences.
method Revisiting processes driven by stationary ergodic sequences, proving strong stability under mild conditions on recursive maps.
result Strong stability of iterations proven without ergodic driving sequence.
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous event sequence analysis under the framework of Hawkes processes by leveraging the …
Several machine learning problems arising in natural language processing can be modeled as a sequence labeling problem. We provide Gaussian process models based on pseudo-likelihood approximation to perform sequence labeling. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a Bayesian approach to learning in a kernel based framework. …
Proposes a new method to model event sequences using normalizing flows.
problem Modeling asynchronous and probabilistic event sequences.
method Intensity-free framework using normalizing flows.
result Effective at capturing stochasticity of discrete event sequences.
Develops a new point process model for detecting neural spike sequences.
problem Detecting sparse sequences of neural spikes in high-dimensional spike trains.
method A point process model that represents sequence occurrences as marked events in continuous time, with learnable time warping parameters.
result Demonstrates improved detection and modeling of neural spike sequences.
This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta LEarning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data along with a relational network. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian mixture Hawkes process model, whi…
Framework handles both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences without tuning.
problem Handling both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences efficiently.
method Parametric Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function with variational inference.
result Competitive computational and predictive performance against state-of-the-art methods.
Meta-learning improves event prediction from short sequences.
problem Predicting events from short sequences is challenging.
method Meta-learning approach using recurrent neural networks and monotonic neural networks.
result Meta-learning enhances long-term prediction performance.
Survey on modeling event sequences through temporal processes.
problem Modeling phenomena with sequences of events over continuous time.
method Probabilistic models based on point processes, categorized into simple, marked, and spatio-temporal.
result Analysis of existing approaches and their applicability to prediction and modeling.
Study connects Gaussian processes and regularization for sequence-function mappings.
problem Understanding and interpreting sequence-function maps in biology.
method Relates Gaussian process priors, regularization, and gauge fixing in overparameterized weight space.
result Established the relationship between regularized regression and Gaussian processes in function space.
We propose a novel adversarial learning strategy for mixture models of Hawkes processes, leveraging data augmentation techniques of Hawkes process in the framework of self-paced learning. Instead of learning a mixture model directly from a set of event sequences drawn from different Hawkes processes, the proposed metho…
CGAN fails to improve deterministic sequence predictions, revealing a theoretical limitation.
problem Improving deterministic sequence predictions with CGAN.
method Developed an adversarial content loss approach.
result CGAN does not improve deterministic sequence predictions.
The paper extends sequences while preserving statistical properties using a mixture model.
problem Extending sequences while retaining their statistical properties.
method Auto-regressive Sequence Extension Mixture Model (SEMM) using deep learning.
result The mixture model outperforms traditional neural networks in sequence extension with statistical property retention.
IAE extracts innovations sequences for non-Gaussian processes.
problem Extracting innovations sequences for non-Gaussian processes.
method Causal convolutional neural network.
result IAE effectively detects anomalies in non-Gaussian data.
Computer simulations have become a popular tool of assessing complex skills such as problem-solving skills. Log files of computer-based items record the entire human-computer interactive processes for each respondent. The response processes are very diverse, noisy, and of nonstandard formats. Few generic methods have b…
This work compresses sequences by treating them as continuous-time processes, enabling efficient discretization.
problem Efficient compression of sequences, especially with deep learning models that scale with sequence length.
method Treat sequences as continuous-time processes, learn efficient discretization, and decode at different time intervals.
result Automatic bit rate reductions in video and motion capture sequences using learned discretization.
CAUSE learns Granger causality from event sequences, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning Granger causality from complex, interdependent event sequences.
method CAUSE uses a neural point process to capture interdependency and an attribution method to extract Granger causality.
result CAUSE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in inferring inter-type Granger causality.
S2P2 model improves predictive likelihoods for MTPPs.
problem Modeling irregular time intervals in event sequences.
method State-space point process model using deep state-space techniques.
result Empirically, S2P2 achieves state-of-the-art predictive likelihoods.
Paper proposes a faster RAE with sequence-aware encoding.
problem Training recurrent autoencoders is challenging and time-consuming.
method Introduces a recurrent autoencoder with sequence-aware encoding using 1D convolutional layers.
result The proposed autoencoder trains faster than standard RAE.
Temporal point process is an expressive tool for modeling event sequences over time. In this paper, we take a reinforcement learning view whereby the observed sequences are assumed to be generated from a mixture of latent policies. The purpose is to cluster the sequences with different temporal patterns into the underl…
Deep learning models optimize protein sequences.
problem Optimizing protein properties through sequence design.
method Deep generative models guided by machine learning.
result Improved protein sequence generation from prior knowledge.
We present a probabilistic model for unsupervised alignment of high-dimensional time-warped sequences based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM). We follow the approach introduced in (Kazlauskaite, 2018) of simultaneously representing each data sequence as a composition of a true underlying function and a time…
We present methods for online linear optimization that take advantage of benign (as opposed to worst-case) sequences. Specifically if the sequence encountered by the learner is described well by a known "predictable process", the algorithms presented enjoy tighter bounds as compared to the typical worst case bounds. Ad…
Sequence set is a widely-used type of data source in a large variety of fields. A typical example is protein structure prediction, which takes an multiple sequence alignment (MSA) as input and aims to infer structural information from it. Almost all of the existing approaches exploit MSAs in an indirect fashion, i.e., …
We develop constructions for exchangeable sequences of point processes that are rendered conditionally-i.i.d. negative binomial processes by a (possibly unknown) random measure called the base measure. Negative binomial processes are useful in Bayesian nonparametrics as models for random multisets, and in applications …
We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to a cluster is generated via the same Hawkes process with specific parameters, an…
Modeling multiple Hawkes processes with shared dynamics using graphons.
problem Modeling multiple multivariate point processes with shared dynamics.
method Leverage graphons to model an uncountable event type space, learn graphon-based Hawkes process model by minimizing hierarchical optimal transport distance.
result Infer underlying relations and simulate event sequences with similar dynamics.
Modeling latent dynamics in high-dimensional event sequences without prior knowledge.
problem Modeling latent dynamics in high-dimensional event sequences with unknown marker relations.
method Adversarial imitation learning framework decomposed into latent structural intensity model, efficient random walk model, and seq2seq discriminator.
result Effective detection of hidden network among markers and decent prediction for future events.
Seq2Seq models perform well in generating If-Then programs from natural language.
problem Creating If-Then programs for business process automation without technical expertise.
method Modeling If-Then programs as a sequence learning task using Seq2Seq approaches.
result Seq2Seq models can effectively generate If-Then programs from natural language.
Mamba Hawkes Process improves modeling of event sequences with long-term dependencies.
problem Modeling mutual inhibition and nonlinearity in asynchronous event sequences.
method Introduces Mamba Hawkes Process using Mamba state space architecture.
result MHP outperforms existing models across various datasets.
Scalable hybrid HMM with Gaussian Process for time-series data clustering.
problem Large number of parameters and long sequences in time-series data make HMM-GPSM training difficult.
method Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) for long sequences and reparameterized random Fourier features (R-RFF) for large data points.
result Significant reduction in training time and improved hidden-state estimation accuracy.
Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurr…
Various and ubiquitous information systems are being used in monitoring, exchanging, and collecting information. These systems are generating massive amount of event sequence logs that may help us understand underlying phenomenon. By analyzing these logs, we can learn process models that describe system procedures, pre…
Analyzing the underlying structure of multiple time-sequences provides insights into the understanding of social networks and human activities. In this work, we present the \emph{Bayesian nonparametric Poisson process allocation} (BaNPPA), a latent-function model for time-sequences, which automatically infers the numbe…
Graph Hawkes Neural Network forecasts evolving graph sequences.
problem Modeling dynamic graph sequences with complex event types.
method Generalized Hawkes process to neural network, capturing complex event impacts.
result Effective at predicting future events in evolving graph sequences.
Deep learning models forecast stock market orders over multiple time frames.
problem Forecasting stock market orders over varying time frames.
method Encoder-decoder models with sequence-to-sequence and Attention mechanisms, leveraging Intelligent Processing Units (IPUs) for faster training.
result Multi-horizon forecasting outperforms single-horizon models, especially for long prediction periods.
An adversarial detector identifies anomalous sequences in sequential data.
problem Detecting anomalous sequences in one-class settings with limited data.
method Solves a minimax problem to find an optimal detector against the worst-case sequences from a generator, using marked point process model.
result Demonstrated good performance on simulations and real credit card fraud datasets.
In order to better model high-dimensional sequential data, we propose a collaborative multi-output Gaussian process dynamical system (CGPDS), which is a novel variant of GPDSs. The proposed model assumes that the output on each dimension is controlled by a shared global latent process and a private local latent process…
New algorithm optimizes Hawkes process models with short data.
problem Learning causal-interaction networks from short Hawkes process sequences.
method Variational Expectation-Maximization algorithm with extended hyper-parameters and posterior learning.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods under short observation sequences.
Develops new e-processes and confidence sequences for Gaussian means with unknown variance.
problem Constructing valid t-tests and confidence sequences for Gaussian means with unknown variance.
method Explores generalized nonintegrable martingales and extended Ville's inequality, developing two new e-processes and confidence sequences.
result Analyzes the width of resulting confidence sequences with a polynomial dependence on error probability, proving it to be unavoidable and even better than classical fixed-sample t-tests.
THP model captures complex dependencies in event sequences efficiently.
problem Inability of existing models to capture long-term dependencies in event sequences.
method Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model using self-attention mechanism.
result THP outperforms existing models in likelihood and event prediction accuracy.
EventFlow forecasts event sequences without autoregression, improving accuracy.
problem Forecasting errors in autoregressive models for event sequences.
method EventFlow uses flow matching to learn joint distributions over event times directly.
result EventFlow reduces forecast error by 20%-53% compared to baselines.
Detects outliers in continuous-time event sequences, including unexpected absences and occurrences.
problem Identifying unexpected events in event sequences that may indicate abnormal situations.
method Developed methods based on Bayesian decision theory and hypothesis testing for context-aware outlier detection.
result Effective methods for detecting outliers in both synthetic and real-world data.
New model controls memory in seq2seq tasks, revealing learning regimes.
problem Understanding memory in seq2seq tasks using neural networks.
method Introducing a stochastic switching-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (SSOU) model to control memory and a measure of non-Markovianity.
result Two learning regimes emerge from the interplay of time scales in the SSOU process.
We characterize the combinatorial structure of conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of negative binomial processes with a common beta process base measure. In Bayesian nonparametric applications, such processes have served as models for latent multisets of features underlying data. Analogously, random subsets arise from cond…
Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes (LBDTPP) is a semi-autoregressive framework for generating asynchronous event sequences.
problem Generating asynchronous event sequences
method Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes
result Outperforms state-of-the-art TPP baselines in both unconditional and conditional generation tasks
Syntactic constituency parsing is a fundamental problem in natural language processing and has been the subject of intensive research and engineering for decades. As a result, the most accurate parsers are domain specific, complex, and inefficient. In this paper we show that the domain agnostic attention-enhanced seque…
New algorithms extract low-dimensional representations from sequential data, revealing insights into complex processes.
problem Challenges in extracting low-dimensional representations from sequential, high-dimensional, sparse, and noisy data.
method Developed new clustering algorithms based on Block Markov Chains theory, validated on real-world data.
result These algorithms can successfully extract low-dimensional representations from real-world sequential data, revealing insights into complex processes.