A framework for sensitivity measures using scoring functions.
problem Constructing sensitivity measures for any elicitable functional.
method Score-based sensitivities constructed via consistent scoring functions.
result Demonstrated intuitive and desirable properties of score-based sensitivities.
Diffusion models accurately recover mixture weights from generated samples despite score function insensitivity.
problem Score-based generative models often fail to learn correct relative mode amplitudes (mixture weights) from generated samples.
method Relate diffusion score matching (DSM) loss to mixture weight estimation error, define diffusion score sensitivity index (DSSI), and prove its governing role in mixture weight recovery.
result Generated samples can accurately recover mixture weights from the DSM loss, even when the target score is insensitive to mixture weights.
Given a loss function F:X→R+ that can be written as the sum of losses over a large set of inputs a1,…,an, it is often desirable to approximate F by subsampling the input points. Strong theoretical guarantees require taking into account the importance of each point, measured by how …
Method differentiates diffusion model training to predict sample sensitivity.
problem Predict how diffusion model samples change with small perturbations.
method Closed-form procedure for computing directional derivatives of the map.
result Estimates sensitivity of diffusion model samples to additive perturbations.
Improves generative models for cost-sensitive decisions.
problem Generative models lack awareness of decision costs.
method Integrates a decision loss into the training objective.
result Improves cost-sensitive forecast accuracy.
A new RL framework for risk-sensitive decision-making using convex scoring functions.
problem Time-inconsistent risk measures in reinforcement learning.
method Convex scoring functions, augmented state space, auxiliary variable, customized Actor-Critic algorithm.
result Theoretical guarantees for approximation and convergence under certain conditions.
In this paper, we propose an effective THresholding method based on ORder Statistic, called THORS, to convert an arbitrary scoring-type classifier, which can induce a continuous cumulative distribution function of the score, into a cost-sensitive one. The procedure, uses order statistic to find an optimal threshold for…
In recent years, probabilistic forecasting is an emerging topic, which is why there is a growing need of suitable methods for the evaluation of multivariate predictions. We analyze the sensitivity of the most common scoring rules, especially regarding quality of the forecasted dependency structures. Additionally, we pr…
BDeu marginal likelihood score is a popular model selection criterion for selecting a Bayesian network structure based on sample data. This non-informative scoring criterion assigns same score for network structures that encode same independence statements. However, before applying the BDeu score, one must determine a …
Optimizes insurance pricing by accounting for policyholders' price sensitivity.
problem Traditional insurance pricing does not consider policyholders' price sensitivity.
method Formulates insurance pricing as a decision-making problem and uses off-policy evaluation and stochastic control.
result Neural networks outperform existing techniques for policy optimization.
Recent reports have described that learning Bayesian networks are highly sensitive to the chosen equivalent sample size (ESS) in the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalence uniform (BDeu). This sensitivity often engenders some unstable or undesirable results. This paper describes some asymptotic analyses of BDeu to explain the …
In predictive maintenance, model performance is usually assessed by means of precision, recall, and F1-score. However, employing the model with best performance, e.g. highest F1-score, does not necessarily result in minimum maintenance cost, but can instead lead to additional expenses. Thus, we propose to perform model…
Improved bounds for ℓp sensitivity sampling reducing the sample complexity for structured matrices.
problem Improving the sample complexity for structured matrices using ℓp sensitivity sampling. method Developed new bounds for ℓp sensitivity sampling, achieving a bound of roughly S2−2/p for 2<p<∞. result Achieved improved bounds for ℓp sensitivity sampling, reducing the sample complexity for structured matrices. The paper introduces new processors for fair credit scoring.
problem Fairness in credit scoring with multiple sensitive variables.
method Logical processors (LP) and Multistage processors (MP).
result Logical processors are effective for handling multiple sensitive variables.
Gini index needs auto-calibration for consistent decision-making.
problem Gini index's inconsistency in decision-making.
method Restrict Gini index to auto-calibrated regression models.
result Gini index becomes strictly consistent with auto-calibration.
Bayesian approach improves AdaLoRA's performance and efficiency.
problem Improving the efficiency and performance of adaptive low-rank adaptation.
method Utilized Bayesian metrics and the Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) optimizer for adaptive parameter budget allocation.
result Bayesian counterpart outperforms sensitivity-based importance metric and is faster than AdaLoRA.
Training classification models on imbalanced data tends to result in bias towards the majority class. In this paper, we demonstrate how variable discretization and cost-sensitive logistic regression help mitigate this bias on an imbalanced credit scoring dataset, and further show the application of the variable discret…
Develops a fair classifier for deep learning models.
problem Ensuring fairness in classification models across different sub-populations.
method Applies Rawlsian principles to minimize error rate on the worst-off sub-population.
result Introduces a practical method to adapt any black-box deep learning model to be fair.
A new method uses LLMs to discover causal pathways that affect fairness in machine learning.
problem Discovering fairness-relevant causal pathways in the presence of noise and confounding.
method Hybrid LLM-guided causal discovery framework combining active learning and dynamic scoring.
result LLM-guided methods, including the proposed active, dynamically scored variant, outperform baselines in recovering fairness-relevant structure under noisy conditions.
The paper explores SHAP scores and their connection to functional ANOVA, highlighting challenges in approximations.
problem Estimating SHAP scores and understanding their limitations.
method Using the connection to functional ANOVA, the paper outlines the challenges in SHAP approximations and their relation to feature distribution and ANOVA terms.
result Challenges in SHAP approximations are primarily due to feature distribution and the number of ANOVA terms estimated.
SDE Matching eliminates simulation for training Latent SDEs, achieving similar performance.
problem Training Latent SDEs with adjoint sensitivity methods is computationally expensive and limited.
method SDE Matching, inspired by Score- and Flow Matching, eliminates simulation for training Latent SDEs.
result SDE Matching achieves performance comparable to adjoint sensitivity methods while reducing computational complexity.
Paper develops robust econometric methods for staggered adoption studies.
problem Estimation challenges in event studies with staggered adoption.
method Design-first framework with exact probability limits, diagnostics, and orthogonal score constructions.
result Uniformly valid inference under restricted violations of parallel trends.
Credit estimation and bankruptcy prediction methods have been utilizing Altman's z score method for the last several years. It is reported in many studies that z score is sensitive to changes in accounting figures. Researches have proposed different variations to conventional z score that can improve the predicti…
The paper investigates how irrelevant features affect clustering performance.
problem The challenge of identifying relevant features in unsupervised clustering tasks.
method Investigation of clustering performance with added irrelevant features.
result Different types of irrelevant features impact clustering outcomes differently.
CDAM improves attention maps for ViTs, making them more class-sensitive.
problem Existing attention maps in ViTs lack class sensitivity.
method Class-discriminative attention maps (CDAM) that scale attention scores by class relevance.
result CDAM provides more class-sensitive explanations than existing methods.
Improves model calibration for deep neural networks using proper scores.
problem Calibration errors in deep neural networks are often biased and inconsistent.
method Introduces proper calibration errors related to proper scores.
result Demonstrates the superiority of proper scores over common estimators.
This work provides efficient algorithms for approximating ℓ_p sensitivities and related statistics.
problem Estimating the importance of datapoints in high-dimensional datasets.
method Efficient algorithms for computing α-approximation of ℓ_1 sensitivities and total sensitivity using importance sampling and sensitivity computations.
result Real-world datasets have significantly lower intrinsic effective dimensionality than theoretical predictions.
Proposes a cost-sensitive method to generate probabilistic SVM outputs.
problem Generating probabilistic SVM outputs efficiently and cost-effectively.
method Cost-sensitive ensemble SVM with bootstrap probability estimation.
result Improves performance on imbalanced datasets and outperforms benchmarks.
Researchers use information geometry to analyze and improve DRWs for node classification.
problem Lack of theoretical foundations for Discriminative Random Walks (DRWs).
method Revisit DRWs through information geometry, treating hitting-time laws as a statistical manifold. Derived closed-form expressions and introduced sensitivity scores.
result Introduced a sensitivity score that bounds maximal first-order change in DRW betweenness under unit Fisher perturbations.
Study compares different scoring rules for machine-learned weather forecasts, finding scale-awareness improves forecast realism.
problem Improving the accuracy of machine-learned probabilistic weather forecasts.
method Comparison of scoring rules (CRPS, fair global energy score, graph energy score) and analysis of their impact on forecast field spectra.
result Scale-awareness improves forecast realism, particularly in the tropics.
Fairness-aware learning involves designing algorithms that do not discriminate with respect to some sensitive feature (e.g., race or gender). Existing work on the problem operates under the assumption that the sensitive feature available in one's training sample is perfectly reliable. This assumption may be violated in…
MAS scores cluster size consistency from points, robust to label changes.
problem Desired uniformity in cluster sizes, stability under label perturbations.
method Mass Agreement Score (MAS) measures point-centric cluster size consistency, robust to label changes.
result MAS yields similar scores for partitions with similar bulk structure, sensitive to genuine redistribution of cluster mass.
Corrects bias in LLM-as-a-judge evaluations using adaptive calibration.
problem Bias in LLM evaluations due to imperfect sensitivity and specificity.
method Plug-in framework with confidence intervals accounting for test and calibration dataset uncertainties.
result LML-based evaluation yields more reliable estimates than human-only evaluation.
A new method for survival analysis models that ensures fairness without using sensitive demographic data.
problem Ensuring fairness in survival analysis models without relying on sensitive demographic information.
method A worst-case error minimization approach using a training loss function that does not know sensitive demographic information.
result The proposed method often scores better on fairness metrics without a significant drop in prediction accuracy compared to baselines.
Proposes a sequential framework for fairness in multiple sensitive attributes.
problem Fairness in the presence of multiple sensitive attributes.
method Sequential framework using multi-marginal Wasserstein barycenters.
result Closed-form solution for sequentially fair predictor.
The paper investigates how calibrating propensity scores improves DML estimates of average treatment effects.
problem Improving the accuracy of DML estimates in finite samples.
method Propensity score calibration within the Double/debiased machine learning framework.
result Calibrating propensity scores reduces the root mean squared error of DML estimates of average treatment effects in finite samples.
Proposes MVG-CRPS for robust multivariate forecasting.
problem Outliers in multivariate forecasting lead to significant errors.
method Integrates CRPS for MVG distributions, optimizing with MVG-CRPS.
result Improves robustness, accuracy, and uncertainty quantification.
High throughput screening of compounds (chemicals) is an essential part of drug discovery [7], involving thousands to millions of compounds, with the purpose of identifying candidate hits. Most statistical tools, including the industry standard B-score method, work on individual compound plates and do not exploit cross…
A new bias score method optimizes fairness in classification.
problem Ensuring fairness in binary classification under group constraints.
method Introducing bias scores and developing a post-hoc approach to adapt to fairness constraints.
result The method maintains high accuracy while ensuring fairness constraints.
Unified framework for testing deep learning models with concept activation vectors.
problem Statistical instability and discontinuity in testing with concept activation vectors.
method Introducing α-TCAV, a generalized framework that replaces the indicator function with a parameterized smooth function.
result Unified probabilistic formulation that subsumes TCAV and Multi-TCAV, providing principled guidance on tuning the parameter.
This paper adresses the general issue of estimating the sensitivity of the expectation of a random variable with respect to a parameter characterizing its evolution. In finance for example, the sensitivities of the price of a contingent claim are called the Greeks. A new way of estimating the Greeks has been recently i…
New method improves privacy risk evaluation of machine learning models.
problem Machine learning models can be vulnerable to membership inference attacks.
method Proposed new inference attack method based on prediction entropy, and introduced privacy risk score metric.
result Existing defense approaches are not as effective as previously reported.
Paper develops a framework to optimize neural networks using weighted metrics.
problem Discrepancy between maximizing weighted classification scores and minimizing loss function.
method Formalizes weighted classification metrics and constructs corresponding losses.
result Framework includes well-established approaches like cost-sensitive learning and weighted cross entropy.
A new framework detects adverse dataset shifts using outlier scores.
problem False alarms in dataset shift tests.
method Outlier scores to compare contamination rates at varying thresholds.
result Reduces the sensitivity to minor differences in predictive performance.
New method optimizes fairness in predictive models for continuous sensitive attributes.
problem Enforcing full statistical independence on continuous sensitive attributes is too restrictive.
method Functional bilevel optimization (FBO) and ITD algorithms.
result Achieves lowest or near-lowest fairness-accuracy regret on synthetic and real datasets.
Explaining the output of a deep network remains a challenge. In the case of an image classifier, one type of explanation is to identify pixels that strongly influence the final decision. A starting point for this strategy is the gradient of the class score function with respect to the input image. This gradient can be …
Framework quantifies financial NLP robustness under regime shifts.
problem Semantic and causal drift in financial news narratives.
method Four metrics: FCAS, PCS, TSV, NLICS.
result Transformer models are more affected by semantic drift.
Background: Elderly patients with MODS have high risk of death and poor prognosis. The performance of current scoring systems assessing the severity of MODS and its mortality remains unsatisfactory. This study aims to develop an interpretable and generalizable model for early mortality prediction in elderly patients wi…