A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
Semiparametric Bayesian networks combine parametric and nonparametric models for flexible data analysis.
problem Combining the advantages of parametric and nonparametric models for flexible data analysis.
method Semiparametric Bayesian networks combining parametric and nonparametric conditional probability distributions. Modifications of two algorithms for structure learning from data.
result Accurately learns the combination of parametric and nonparametric components, comparable to state-of-the-art methods.
We present semiparametric spectral modeling of the complete larval Drosophila mushroom body connectome. Motivated by a thorough exploratory data analysis of the network via Gaussian mixture modeling (GMM) in the adjacency spectral embedding (ASE) representation space, we introduce the latent structure model (LSM) for n…
This paper presents a novel approach for incremental semiparametric inverse dynamics learning. In particular, we consider the mixture of two approaches: Parametric modeling based on rigid body dynamics equations and nonparametric modeling based on incremental kernel methods, with no prior information on the mechanical …
It has been recently shown that numerical semiparametric bounds on the expected payoff of fi- nancial or actuarial instruments can be computed using semidefinite programming. However, this approach has practical limitations. Here we use column generation, a classical optimization technique, to address these limitations…
We propose a new high dimensional semiparametric principal component analysis (PCA) method, named Copula Component Analysis (COCA). The semiparametric model assumes that, after unspecified marginally monotone transformations, the distributions are multivariate Gaussian. COCA improves upon PCA and sparse PCA in three as…
To better understand the spatial structure of large panels of economic and financial time series and provide a guideline for constructing semiparametric models, this paper first considers estimating a large spatial covariance matrix of the generalized m-dependent and β-mixing time series (with J variables and T…
We study deep neural networks and their use in semiparametric inference. We establish novel rates of convergence for deep feedforward neural nets. Our new rates are sufficiently fast (in some cases minimax optimal) to allow us to establish valid second-step inference after first-step estimation with deep learning, a re…
We propose a new class of semiparametric exponential family graphical models for the analysis of high dimensional mixed data. Different from the existing mixed graphical models, we allow the nodewise conditional distributions to be semiparametric generalized linear models with unspecified base measure functions. Thus, …
This paper presents a problem of model learning for the purpose of learning how to navigate a ball to a goal state in a circular maze environment with two degrees of freedom. The motion of the ball in the maze environment is influenced by several non-linear effects such as dry friction and contacts, which are difficult…
Unified theory for semiparametric data fusion with individual-level data.
problem Handling data fusion problems, especially in settings with diverse data sources and designs.
method Extending a comprehensive theory to handle conditional and marginal distribution alignments, providing universal results for influence functions and efficient influence functions.
result Paves the way for machine-learning debiased, semiparametric efficient estimation.
Recent methods for estimating sparse undirected graphs for real-valued data in high dimensional problems rely heavily on the assumption of normality. We show how to use a semiparametric Gaussian copula--or "nonparanormal"--for high dimensional inference. Just as additive models extend linear models by replacing linear …
The paper proposes a method to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for correlated target variables.
problem Constructing well-calibrated prediction sets for correlated target variables.
method The method uses vine copulas to estimate the joint cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores and improves the asymptotic efficiency of the quantile estimate.
result The method guarantees asymptotically exact coverage and competitive efficiency on real-world regression problems.
As the dynamic structure of the financial markets is subject to dramatic changes, a model capable of providing consistently accurate volatility estimates must not make strong assumptions on how prices change over time. Most volatility models impose a particular parametric functional form that relates an observed price …
A new method learns the optimal pricing map for semiparametric dynamic pricing problems.
problem Optimizing pricing strategies in a semiparametric valuation model with unknown utility and noise.
method Developed a modular policy called ORBIT that uses a scalar pilot index, localizes a benchmark price, and learns a local polynomial approximation of the oracle price map.
result Achieves regret bound of \( \widetilde{O}\big(T^{\frac{2β-1}{4β-3}}+\sqrt{dT}\big) \) for the linear utility model and minimax sharp lower bound.