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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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145290434579 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for second-order distributions

A new framework for measuring uncertainty in machine learning models.

problem Uncertainty measures for second-order distributions in machine learning models have theoretical flaws.
method Formal criteria and a general framework based on the Wasserstein distance.
result The Wasserstein distance-based measure satisfies all proposed criteria for meaningful uncertainty measures.

Develops unbiased averaging methods for second order optimization in distributed systems.

problem Computing the Hessian is challenging and communication is a bottleneck in distributed optimization.
method Unbiased parameter averaging methods using sampling and sketching of the Hessian.
result Provably minimizes bias for sketched Newton directions.

COMRADE is a communication-efficient, Byzantine-resilient second-order optimization algorithm.

problem Byzantine failures in distributed optimization.
method COMRADE is a communication-efficient, second-order optimization algorithm that uses a simple norm-based thresholding rule to filter out Byzantine workers.
result COMRADE achieves linear-quadratic convergence and is robust against Byzantine workers.

Proposes a new stock prediction method that accounts for market dynamics.

problem The dynamic nature of the stock market invalidates traditional machine learning assumptions.
method Develops a second-order learning paradigm with multi-scale patterns.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in stock prediction on real-world data.

New findings show second-order scoring rules can't accurately represent epistemic uncertainty.

problem Lack of epistemic uncertainty representation in second-order learners.
method Generalised second-order scoring rules introduced to prove theoretical limitations.
result No loss function incentivizes second-order learners to accurately represent epistemic uncertainty.

We consider the problem of computing the integrable sub-distributions of the non-integrable Vessiot distribution of multi-dimensional second order partial differential equations (PDEs). We use Vessiot theory and solvable structures to find the largest integrable distributions contained in the Vessiot distribution assoc…

2014-01-02abs ↗pdf ↗

SOLBP extends efficient inference to uncertain Bayesian networks.

problem Inference in uncertain Bayesian networks with second-order probabilities.
method Extends Loopy Belief Propagation to second-order Bayesian networks.
result Generates inferences consistent with sum-product networks, more efficient and scalable.

We investigate the existence of coordinate transformations which bring a given vector field on a manifold equipped with an involutive distribution into the form of a second-order differential equation field with parameters. We define associated connections and we give a coordinate-independent criterion for determining …

2011-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

PDHAMS improves sampling for discrete distributions with quadratic potential functions.

problem Sampling discrete distributions efficiently and accurately.
method Integrates a second-order approximation of the potential function and uses Gaussian integral trick.
result PDHAMS yields superior performance compared to other methods.

Second-order guarantees for federated learning algorithms.

problem Non-convex optimization in federated learning with saddle-points as bottlenecks.
method Drawing on recent results on second-order optimality in centralized and decentralized settings, establish second-order guarantees for federated learning algorithms.
result Established second-order guarantees for federated learning algorithms.

Loss minimisation fails to capture epistemic uncertainty in second-order predictors.

problem Capturing epistemic uncertainty in machine learning models.
method Analysis of a second-order learner approach using loss minimisation.
result Loss minimisation does not faithfully represent epistemic uncertainty in second-order predictors.

Enhances SMC² with Hessian info for more efficient posterior approximation.

problem Improving accuracy and efficiency in Bayesian inference.
method Integrates second-order information (Hessian) into SMC²'s proposal distribution.
result Second-order proposals lead to more accurate posterior approximations and better step-size selection.

New technique debiases distributed optimization, improving convergence rate.

problem Bias in local estimates limits effectiveness of distributed second order optimization.
method Surrogate sketching and scaled regularization to eliminate bias.
result The debiased local estimates lead to faster convergence in distributed optimization.

Two new algorithms improve federated optimization under second-order similarity.

problem Federated learning under communication constraints and second-order similarity.
method SVRP and Catalyzed SVRP algorithms combining proximal point evaluations, client sampling, and variance reduction.
result Achieves superior performance and uniformly improves upon existing algorithms for federated optimization under second-order similarity and strong convexity.

Unified asymptotic treatment for VaR- and expectile-based systemic risk measures.

problem Analyzing systemic risk measures under extreme system-wide disasters.
method Classified systemic risk measures into VaR- and expectile-based families, introduced new ICE and SICE measures, and provided second-order asymptotic results.
result Second-order asymptotics provide more accurate tail approximations for systemic risk measures.

Derives derivatives of risk measures for various types of portfolio losses.

problem Calculating precise risk measures for portfolio losses.
method Analyzes first and second order derivatives of risk measures for both continuous and discrete portfolio loss scenarios.
result Provides asymptotic results for conditional moments of heavy-tailed portfolio losses.

In the present paper we establish the necessary and sufficient conditions for two ordinary differential equations of the form y"2+A(x,y,y)y"+B(x,y,y)=0y"{}^2+A(x,y,y') y"+B(x,y,y')=0 to be equivalent under the action of the pseudogroup of contact transformations. These conditions are formulated in terms of integrals of some one-dimensional d…

2012-06-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved Local SGD convergence for general convex objectives with bounded second-order heterogeneity.

problem Understanding when and why Local SGD outperforms alternatives in distributed optimization.
method Established improved convergence guarantees for Local SGD on general convex objectives under bounded second-order heterogeneity.
result Upper bounds for Local SGD are nearly tight, providing a sharper convergence theory.

Improved prediction algorithm for 'easy' sequences with reduced regret.

problem Prediction with expert advice for 'easy' sequences.
method Variant of NormalHedge algorithm using second-order εε-quantile regret bound.
result Second-order εε-quantile regret bound of O(VTlog(VT/ε))O\big(\sqrt{V_T \log(V_T/ε)}\big) for VT>logNV_T > \log N.

Paper introduces variance-based measures for second-order uncertainty quantification in classification problems.

problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions and decision-making.
method Second-order uncertainty quantification using variance-based measures.
result Variance-based measures effectively quantify uncertainty on a class-based level and are competitive with entropy-based measures.

Data whitening and second order optimization harm generalization by reducing access to dataset information.

problem Harmful effects of data whitening and second order optimization on generalization in machine learning.
method Analysis of fully connected models and experimental verification.
result Data whitening and second order optimization reduce or prevent generalization by limiting access to dataset information.

Paper introduces STSL, a second-order Tweedie sampler for efficient posterior sampling in inverse problems.

problem Computational challenges in sampling from posterior distributions using latent diffusion models.
method Introduces STSL, a novel second-order Tweedie sampler with tractable reverse process.
result STSL achieves 4X and 8X reduction in neural function evaluations compared to state-of-the-art solvers.

LocalNewton reduces communication in distributed learning.

problem Communication bottleneck in distributed optimization.
method LocalNewton is a distributed second-order algorithm with local averaging, updating models locally and communicating once every few iterations.
result LocalNewton reduces communication rounds and end-to-end running time compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Paper improves compressed SGD to reach second-order stationary points.

problem Efficiently reaching second-order stationary points in distributed machine learning.
method Gradient compression and RandomK compressor to improve convergence to second-order stationary points.
result Compressed SGD reaches second-order stationary points with improved communication efficiency.

Paper develops a robust PP distributed quasi-Newton estimation for Byzantine machines.

problem Byzantine machines in distributed computing under Privacy Protection constraints.
method Robust PP distributed quasi-Newton estimation method that transmits only five vectors.
result Reduces privacy budgeting and transmission cost compared to gradient descent and Newton iteration.

The paper extends logistic regression for unbounded majority classes and derives asymptotic properties.

problem Infinitely imbalanced logistic regression inference.
method Derive a second order expansion for slope parameter under unbounded majority class.
result The second order term converges to a normal distribution with a variance depending only on the minority class's mean.

This paper uses second-order Poincaré inequalities to establish quantitative central limit theorems for Gaussian neural networks.

problem Establishing quantitative central limit theorems for Gaussian neural networks.
method Using second-order Poincaré inequalities to reduce the problem to computing the gradient and Hessian of the NN's output.
result Suboptimal rates of convergence for the NN's output due to the use of second-order Poincaré inequalities.

This article develops a statistical test for the null hypothesis of strict stationarity of a discrete time stochastic process in the frequency domain. When the null hypothesis is true, the second order cumulant spectrum is zero at all the discrete Fourier frequency pairs in the principal domain. The test uses a window …

2018-01-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) was recently proposed as a general purpose nonparametric variational inference algorithm [Liu & Wang, NIPS 2016]: it minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the target distribution and its approximation by implementing a form of functional gradient descent on a reprod…

2018-06-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Due to the rapid growth of data and computational resources, distributed optimization has become an active research area in recent years. While first-order methods seem to dominate the field, second-order methods are nevertheless attractive as they potentially require fewer communication rounds to converge. However, th…

2018-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a widely deployed method to sample from high-dimensional distributions in Statistics and Machine learning. HMC is known to run very efficiently in practice and its popular second-order "leapfrog" implementation has long been conjectured to run in d1/4d^{1/4} gradient evaluations. Here we …

2018-02-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved Adam for time series forecasting with distributional drift.

problem Non-stationary data challenges Adam's effectiveness.
method Proposed TS_Adam, removing Adam's second-order bias correction.
result TS_Adam achieves 12.8% reduction in MSE and 5.7% in MAE on ETT datasets.

The paper explores arbitrage opportunities in derivative markets under specific conditions.

problem Arbitrage opportunities in derivative markets under different conditions.
method Analyzes the relationship between pricing kernel monotonicity and stochastic arbitrage opportunities.
result Pricing kernel nonmonotonicity is equivalent to stochastic arbitrage opportunities under adequacy.

Second-order economic theory considers new variables to improve price volatility predictions.

problem Current economic models focus on first-order variables, missing second-order variables that affect price volatility.
method Introduces second-order economic theory with new variables composed of sums of squares of agents' transactions.
result Second-order economic theory complements first-order variables and introduces new macroeconomic variables.

New insights into adversarial vulnerability linked to manifold separability issues.

problem Adversarial vulnerability in machine learning models.
method Characterized data distribution as a low-dimensional manifold, focusing on on/off manifold directions and the impact of first-order vs. second-order optimization methods.
result First-order optimization methods lead to poor convergence in the off-manifold direction, causing adversarial vulnerability in inseparable datasets.

Paper improves particle variational inference by optimizing generalization error bound.

problem Improving the diversity of models in particle variational inference to enhance generalization.
method Develops a new second-order Jensen inequality with a repulsion term based on the loss function, leading to a tighter generalization error bound.
result The proposed PVI optimizes the generalization error bound directly, improving performance compared to existing methods.

Derives formulae for general permutation equivariant layers and presents a second order graph variational encoder.

problem Tackles the limitation of previous equivariant neural networks by considering permutations of matrices.
method Derives formulae for general permutation equivariant layers, including matrix permutations. Presents a second order graph variational encoder.
result Latent distribution of equivariant generative models must be exchangeable.

This paper improves learning uncertain Bayesian networks from incomplete data.

problem Learning conditional probabilities in Bayesian networks with limited data.
method Develops methods to estimate and quantify uncertainty in conditional probabilities with incomplete data.
result Improves state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks with incomplete data.

Local approach learns causal structure of linear Gaussian polytree models from interventional data.

problem Learning causal structure of linear Gaussian polytree models from interventional data.
method First learns the skeleton and then orients edges of the polytree using second order statistics and low-dimensional marginal distributions.
result Consistent and scalable approach that handles problems with thousands of nodes.

Second-order optimizers retain residual information after data deletion, affecting machine unlearning.

problem Residual information in second-order optimizers after data deletion.
method Comparison of first-order and second-order learners, eigendecomposition analysis.
result Second-order optimizers retain residual information, not detectable by first-order analysis.