We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston volatility process that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. First, we give conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined. These conditions appear to be rather mild. Second, we…
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48 results for “seasonal effects”
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model for commodities that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. Conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined are given, and five different specifications of the seasonality pattern are proposed. We calcula…
Mixed pooling of seasonality for time series forecasting: An application to pallet transport datastat.ML
New model learns relative importance of multiple seasonal patterns in time series data.
problem Complex seasonal patterns in business time series data.
method Mixed hierarchical seasonality (MHS) model using Stan.
result Significant improvements in prediction error and predictive density compared to existing models.
ST-MTM: Masked Time Series Modeling with Seasonal-Trend Decomposition for Time Series Forecastingcs.LG
ST-MTM models complex time series by decomposing and masking seasonal and trend components.
problem Forecasting complex time series with intricate temporal variations.
method Seasonal-Trend Decomposition with Masking and Contrastive Learning.
result ST-MTM achieves superior forecasting performance compared to existing methods.
Robust PCA detects anomalies and fills gaps in seasonal time series data.
problem Anomaly detection and data imputation in seasonal time series.
method Online robust PCA framework for temporal observations.
result Empirically compared and showed effectiveness in practical situations.
Study combines variational inference and transformers for seasonal climate predictions.
problem Lack of robust seasonal predictions due to limited historical records and computational constraints.
method Combines variational inference with transformer models trained on climate model output.
result Method provides skilful predictions beyond climate change-induced trends in various regions.
Recommender system improves with temporal representations.
problem Improving interpretability and performance in recommender systems.
method Incorporates temporal representations via recurrent point process in continuous time.
result Characterizes effects of perception, interest, and seasonal changes on reviews.
Enhanced time series forecasting with improved trend and seasonal components.
problem Challenges in real-world time series forecasting, especially in multivariate applications.
method Individual decomposition of trend and seasonal components, using different approaches for each.
result Significant reduction in error values, around 10% MSE average reduction across benchmarks.
The paper identifies key macroeconomic events affecting exchange rate volatility.
problem Understanding which macroeconomic events impact exchange rate volatility.
method Data-driven approach to select relevant macroeconomic events using sparsity-based methods.
result The identified macroeconomic events significantly impact exchange rate volatility.
KEDformer improves long-term time series forecasting with seasonal-trend decomposition.
problem Accurate long-term predictions in energy, finance, and meteorology.
method Knowledge extraction-driven framework integrating seasonal-trend decomposition.
result KEDformer enhances model's ability to capture short-term and long-term patterns.
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
problem Causal inference in non-stationary, autocorrelated time series data.
method Decomposes time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components; performs component-specific causal analysis.
result Framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, especially under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.
Machine learning predicts seasonal precipitation for East Africa.
problem Predicting seasonal precipitation for East Africa using machine learning.
method Dimension reduction via EOFs, large-scale climate variability indices as features, interpretable ML algorithm.
result The ML approach shows significant positive skill in predicting precipitation for OND season, comparable to ECMWF forecasts.
Novel algorithm SAODE improves high-dimensional stream classification in seasonal data.
problem Handling seasonal concept drift in high-dimensional stream classification.
method SAODE classifier that includes time as a super parent to handle seasonal drift.
result SAODE consistently outperforms other methods in stream and concept drift classification.
Proposes a method for forecasting time series with multiple seasonality.
problem Forecasting time series with both short-term and long-term seasonality is challenging.
method Two-stage method: first generalizes ARMA model for multiple seasonality, second selects lag order.
result Method outperforms `Facebook Prophet` model in predictive performance.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
Cluster-wise linear regression (CLR), a clustering problem intertwined with regression, is to find clusters of entities such that the overall sum of squared errors from regressions performed over these clusters is minimized, where each cluster may have different variances. We generalize the CLR problem by allowing each…
Adaptive ensemble improves flu forecasts with minimal data.
problem Accurate flu forecasts to help public health.
method Adaptive stacking of ensembles, changing model weights weekly.
result Adaptive ensemble outperforms static ensembles in flu forecasts.
This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system indicates significant evidence of intraday seasonality in returns and return vo…
Enhances neural networks with prior knowledge through a composite kernel.
problem Lack of effective methods to incorporate prior knowledge into neural networks.
method Integrates a composite kernel combining a neural network kernel and a GP kernel for modeling known properties.
result Demonstrates superior performance and flexibility of the Implicit Composite Kernel (ICK) on synthetic and real-world data.
LSTM-MSNet: Leveraging Forecasts on Sets of Related Time Series with Multiple Seasonal Patternsstat.AP
LSTM-MSNet forecasts time series with multiple seasonal patterns using a unified model.
problem Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal cycles.
method Decomposition-based, unified prediction framework using LSTM.
result LSTM-MSNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various datasets.
RobustSTL decomposes time series robustly to detect anomalies and forecast.
problem Handling complex time series with seasonality fluctuation, trend shifts, and data anomalies.
method RobustSTL uses least absolute deviations regression for trend extraction and non-local seasonal filtering for seasonality extraction.
result RobustSTL outperforms existing solutions in synthetic and real-world time series datasets.
New model detects anomalies robustly in noisy, seasonal multivariate time series.
problem Detecting anomalies in noisy, seasonal multivariate time series data.
method Proposes Robust Seasonal Multivariate Generative Adversarial Network (RSM-GAN).
result Improves robustness and precision in detecting anomalies.
Robust algorithm detects season length without parameters.
problem Automatic detection of season length in time series.
method Interpolating, filtering, detrending followed by autocorrelation analysis.
result Outperforms existing algorithms in practical applications.
NoTMF forecasts sparse urban road movement speeds with nonstationary temporal matrix factorization.
problem Sparse and nonstationary movement speed data from urban roads.
method Nonstationary Temporal Matrix Factorization (NoTMF) model.
result NoTMF outperforms baseline models in forecasting urban road movement speeds.
This paper offers a general and comprehensive definition of the day-of-the-week effect. Using symbolic dynamics, we develop a unique test based on ordinal patterns in order to detect it. This test uncovers the fact that the so-called "day-of-the-week" effect is partly an artifact of the hidden correlation structure of …
Modeling daily river flow distribution with seasonal and long-term trends.
problem Capturing both seasonal and gradual long-term changes in environmental variables.
method Distributional regression using GAMLSS framework to estimate daily distribution of river flows.
result Model successfully captures seasonal variation and long-term trends in river flow data.
Deep learning models perform variably across continents/seasons in land cover mapping.
problem Variability in deep learning model performance across different continents/seasons.
method Clustering techniques on satellite imagery from different continents.
result Model performance varies significantly between different continents/seasons.
Study analyzes seasonal hydroclimatic features across climates and continents.
problem Lack of seasonal hydroclimatic feature analysis for Koppen-Geiger climates and continents.
method Global-scale analysis of 13,000 time series using 7 features.
result Notable differences in feature magnitudes across Koppen-Geiger climate classes and continental regions.
A new diffusion model improves time-series forecasting by preserving seasonal patterns.
problem Improving time-series forecasting accuracy, especially for seasonal data.
method A forward diffusion process that decomposes signals into spectral components, altering only the diffusion process.
result The method maintains high signal-to-noise ratios for dominant frequencies, improving long-term pattern recovery.
A robust algorithm for forecasting vector time series with seasonal components.
problem Forecasting vector time series with seasonal patterns and handling missing data.
method Auto-regression with seasonal annual, weekly, and daily baselines, and a Gaussian process for residuals. Custom truncated eigendecomposition and low-rank plus block-diagonal Gaussian kernel. Schur complement and Tikhonov regularization for efficient inference.
result The model can scale to very large datasets and is efficient in terms of memory and computation.
RSM-GAN detects anomalies in noisy, multivariate, seasonal time series.
problem Anomaly detection in complex, noisy multivariate time series with seasonality.
method Convolutional-LSTM layers and attention mechanism in a GAN framework.
result RSM-GAN outperforms existing models in false positive rate and precision.
Model uses GAMs to forecast hourly electricity load weeks to one year ahead.
problem Accurate mid-term hourly load forecasting for power plant operation and energy management.
method Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with P-splines and autoregressive post-processing.
result Significantly enhanced forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.
We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day, leading to a smaller relative dispersion between stocks. Somewhat paradoxically, t…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Expe…
Advanced forecasting models outperform Holt-Winters and ARIMA for stock market data.
problem Forecasting stock market data with improved accuracy.
method Developed 24 two-parameter families of forecasting functions using a nonparametric approach.
result Our models outperform Holt-Winters and ARIMA in terms of lower sum of absolute errors and higher number of accurate forecasts.
FEDformer combines Transformer with seasonal-trend decomposition for efficient long-term forecasting.
problem Transformer's inefficiency and inability to capture global time series views.
method Combines seasonal-trend decomposition with Transformer, exploiting Fourier basis for frequency enhancement.
result Reduces prediction error by 14.8% and 22.6% for multivariate and univariate time series, respectively.
TSFMs outperform traditional models in electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate electricity price forecasting for effective decision-making.
method Benchmarking several TSFMs against traditional models using real-world data.
result MSTL model consistently outperforms TSFMs across countries and metrics.
EVARS-GPR: EVent-triggered Augmented Refitting of Gaussian Process Regression for Seasonal Datacs.LG
EVARS-GPR refines Gaussian Process Regression for seasonal data with sudden scale changes.
problem Challenges in forecasting with changing system behavior over time.
method Combines online change point detection with data augmentation for refitting.
result 20.8% lower RMSE on real-world datasets compared to similar methods.
Recent advances in the understanding of time series permit to clarify seasonalities and cycles, which might be rather obscure in today's literature. A theorem due to P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, which was published only recently, in 1995, and several time scales yield, perhaps for the first time, a clear-cut definition of…
Novel approach predicts long-term seasonal component of electricity prices for improved forecasting.
problem Improving day-ahead electricity price forecasting accuracy.
method Extracts trend-seasonal pattern from extrapolated price series using autoregressive and LASSO models.
result Improves predictive accuracy by 3-15% in root mean squared error and 1% in profits.
Gold prices show seasonal behavior, with January and July having opposite returns.
problem Seasonal behavior in gold prices during the turn of the year.
method Statistical analysis and decomposition techniques.
result Gold prices exhibit strong cyclical behavior during the turn-of-the-year period, with January showing the highest return and July showing significant negative returns.
Simple quantile regression method wins GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting competition.
problem Probabilistic load forecasting in electricity markets.
method Quantile regression applied to log-transformed hourly load data, considering seasonalities and long-term trend.
result Method placed second in open data track and fourth in definite data track.
Improved electrical load forecasting model using Fourier-enhanced RNN.
problem Electrical load time series downscaling with high accuracy and low error.
method Combines recurrent neural network with Fourier seasonal embeddings and self-attention.
result Significantly reduces RMSE across different time horizons compared to existing methods.
SEA model predicts heat demand combining neural network and ARIMA.
problem Predicting heat demand with periodicity.
method Combining Elman neural network and ARIMA models for seasonal and trend predictions.
result SEA model shows promising performance in heat demand prediction.
New method corrects seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions with probabilistic models.
problem Systematic biases and errors in climate model forecasts of Arctic sea ice.
method Conditional Variational Autoencoder model to map observation distribution given biased model predictions.
result Probabilistic adjusted forecasts are better calibrated and have smaller errors.
RobustTAD: Robust Time Series Anomaly Detection via Decomposition and Convolutional Neural Networkscs.LG
RobustTAD detects anomalies in diverse time series data.
problem Effective anomaly detection for complex time series data.
method Robust seasonal-trend decomposition + CNN architecture with data augmentation.
result RobustTAD outperforms other methods on public datasets.
An ensemble of randomized NNs improves time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Forecasting time series with multiple seasonality and nonstationarity.
method Randomized neural networks with pattern-based time series representation and diversity control strategies.
result Outperforms statistical and machine learning models in forecasting accuracy.
The abstract discusses open data resources for studying and controlling the spread of COVID-19.
problem Understanding and controlling the spread of COVID-19.
method Identification and description of open data resources and data-driven methodologies.
result Identification of variables and open data resources for analyzing COVID-19.