Develops Hamiltonian Score Matching and Generative Flows for machine learning.
problem Estimating score functions and designing generative models.
method Introduces Hamiltonian velocity predictors (HVPs) for score matching and generative flows.
result Hamiltonian Generative Flows (HGFs) rival leading generative modeling techniques.
SBMs learn manifold-like structures by mixing samples with a non-conservative field.
problem How SBMs learn data distributions on low-dimensional manifolds.
method Investigating linear approximations and subspaces of local feature vectors during diffusion.
result SBMs mix samples by a non-conservative field within the manifold, maintaining manifold-like structure.
Abstract: Generalizes SGMs to infinite-dimensional Hilbertian setting.
problem Difficulties in extending SGMs to infinite-dimensional settings.
method Uses Gamma and Malliavin Calculus, Dirichlet forms, Wiener chaoses, and time-reversal formula.
result Generalized SGMs to Hilbertian setting with finite-dimensional entropic convergence bounds.
The paper analyzes the score field of diffusion models using Burgers dynamics.
problem Understanding the evolution of score fields in diffusion models.
method Analyzes the score field through Burgers-type evolution law for diffusion models.
result Identifies a universal \( anh\) interfacial term in the score field.
Deep networks can approximate score functions in high-dimensional graphical models efficiently.
problem Approximation efficiency of score functions by deep neural networks in high-dimensional graphical models like Markov random fields.
method Variational inference denoising algorithms and efficient neural network representation.
result Efficient sample complexity bound for diffusion-based generative modeling when score functions are learned by deep neural networks.
Bias and heterogeneity in peer assessment can lead to the issue of unfair scoring in the educational field. To deal with this problem, we propose a reference ranking method for an online peer assessment system using HodgeRank. Such a scheme provides instructors with an objective scoring reference based on mathematics.
Paper uses polar field data to improve solar flare prediction accuracy.
problem Improving solar flare prediction accuracy using machine learning.
method Incorporates polar field data into machine learning models for solar flare classification.
result Improves solar flare prediction performance by up to 10.1% using a novel probabilistic mixture of experts model.
Generative models need per-sample confidence scores to improve quality and stability.
problem Generative models produce unreliable outputs and lack confidence measures.
method Flow Matching with Confidence (FMwC) injects noise and integrates it through the network, providing per-sample confidence scores.
result The confidence score correlates with the velocity field's divergence, offering insights into generative processes.
Urban traffic systems worldwide are suffering from severe traffic safety problems. Traffic safety is affected by many complex factors, and heavily related to all drivers' behaviors involved in traffic system. Drivers with aggressive driving behaviors increase the risk of traffic accidents. In order to manage the safety…
The paper develops methods for high-dimensional inference in Markov random fields.
problem Statistical inference for high-dimensional Markov random fields.
method Markov Chain Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MCMC-MLE) with Elastic-net regularization.
result The proposed methods achieve ℓ1-consistency and false discovery rate control. New method optimizes portfolios by dynamically integrating ESG constraints.
problem Static ESG scores mismatch sequential portfolio decisions.
method MACF-X, a family of adapters that learns ESG costs from multimodal evidence.
result Reduces tail ESG budget pressure while maintaining financial performance.
Study compares different scoring rules for machine-learned weather forecasts, finding scale-awareness improves forecast realism.
problem Improving the accuracy of machine-learned probabilistic weather forecasts.
method Comparison of scoring rules (CRPS, fair global energy score, graph energy score) and analysis of their impact on forecast field spectra.
result Scale-awareness improves forecast realism, particularly in the tropics.
In statistical analysis, measuring a score of predictive performance is an important task. In many scientific fields, appropriate scores were tailored to tackle the problems at hand. A proper score is a popular tool to obtain statistically consistent forecasts. Furthermore, a mathematical characterization of the proper…
Mathematical analysis improves SGMs, resolving memorization issues.
problem Improving performance and avoiding memorization in SGMs.
method Formulated SGMs using Wasserstein proximal operators and mean-field games.
result Improved SGM performance in terms of training samples and time.
Generalizes leverage score sampling for neural networks, accelerating kernel methods and deep learning.
problem Accelerating kernel methods and deep learning training.
method Generalizes leverage score sampling to neural networks and proves equivalence to neural tangent kernel ridge regression.
result Equivalence between regularized neural network and neural tangent kernel ridge regression under leverage score sampling initialization.
Improving Bayesian filtering with strictly proper scoring rules
problem Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems
method Proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF)
result Accurate approximation of challenging filtering distributions
We propose a novel method for automatic pain intensity estimation from facial images based on the framework of kernel Conditional Ordinal Random Fields (KCORF). We extend this framework to account for heteroscedasticity on the output labels(i.e., pain intensity scores) and introduce a novel dynamic features, dynamic ra…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function (scoring rule). Popular example of scoring rule for continuous outcomes is the …
New score-based methods identify causal structures with latent variables.
problem Identifying causal structures involving latent variables.
method Score-based methods with identifiability guarantees.
result Score equivalence and consistency for latent variable causal models.
Robust quickest change detection method for unknown score functions.
problem Detecting changes in data streams with unknown pre- and post-change distributions.
method Selects least-favorable distributions and robustifies score-based detection algorithm.
result Demonstrates improved performance in simulations.
Develops deep generative models for stratified learning.
problem Challenges in learning distributions on stratified spaces with varying dimensions and singularities.
method Two generative frameworks: sieve maximum likelihood and diffusion-based.
result Establishes convergence rates and consistency for estimating intrinsic dimensions and number of strata.
It is often observed that the probabilistic predictions given by a machine learning model can disagree with averaged actual outcomes on specific subsets of data, which is also known as the issue of miscalibration. It is responsible for the unreliability of practical machine learning systems. For example, in online adve…
This work proposes using Conformal Prediction to improve OOD detection scores and vice versa.
problem Improper evaluation of OOD detection scores due to finite sample size.
method Defining new conformal AUROC and FRP@TPR95 metrics and using OOD scores as non-conformity scores.
result Improved evaluation metrics and better interpretation of OOD scores.
Paper develops a consistent algorithm for learning graph structure from continuous-time stochastic differential equations.
problem Learning structure from continuous-time stochastic differential equations.
method Score-based structure learning using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations with adaptive regularization.
result The method consistently recovers directed graphs of local independencies in systems of stochastic differential equations.
Paper establishes a density formula for diffusion models, linking target density to score function.
problem Lack of theoretical foundation for optimizing DDPMs using ELBO.
method Developed a density formula for continuous-time diffusion processes, revealing the connection between target density and score function.
result The minimizer of the ELBO objective for DDPMs nearly coincides with the true objective, providing a theoretical foundation.
Improved diffusion models using energy distillation and sequential Monte Carlo.
problem Training instability and inferior performance in energy parameterized diffusion models.
method Introduced a novel training regime for energy functions through distillation of pre-trained diffusion models, and cast the sampling procedure as a Feynman Kac model.
result Demonstrated improved performance and new sampling techniques.
Novel alignment framework for text-to-image generation using diffusion models and flow matching.
problem Improving text-to-image generation with minimal computational resources.
method Proposes a novel alignment framework that decomposes the score function into pre-trained score plus a conditional expectation of the reward.
result Achieves comparable performance to finetuning-based models with reduced computational cost.
Proposes Topology Distance for evaluating GANs.
problem Challenges in evaluating GANs' goodness.
method Builds Vietoris-Rips complex on image features and defines TD based on latent manifold comparisons.
result Demonstrates TD's superiority over existing metrics.
Paper tackles high-order inference in structured prediction tasks.
problem Maximizing a score function on the space of labels in high-order Markov random fields.
method Generative model approach with two-stage convex optimization algorithm.
result Success in general high-order inference problems driven by hyperedge expansion properties.
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the global leading cause of death. A strong risk factor for CVD events is the amount of coronary artery calcium (CAC). To meet demands of the increasing interest in quantification of CAC, i.e. coronary calcium scoring, especially as an unrequested finding for screening and research, auto…
Anomalies (unusual patterns) in time-series data give essential, and often actionable information in critical situations. Examples can be found in such fields as healthcare, intrusion detection, finance, security and flight safety. In this paper we propose new conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection…
Generative model uses SDEs to transform data distributions.
problem Creating data from complex distributions.
method Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for data transformation.
result Achieved record-breaking performance in image generation.
Model analyzes RFQ markets using stochastic control to optimize dealer performance and inventory.
problem Optimizing market making in aggregator-routed RFQ markets with varying dealer performance scores.
method Two-tier stochastic control model that separates RFQ-level price competition from macro routing.
result Optimal controls can be expressed through derivatives of reduced Hamiltonians, leading to interpretable mappings from optimal win probabilities to optimal offsets.
Paper uses NLP and IRT to score ESG factors from news articles.
problem Lack of precise ESG metrics in finance.
method Combines NLP and IRT models on ESG-related news data.
result Method offers more precise ESG metrics with temporal dynamics.
This review covers predictive uncertainty estimation in machine learning.
problem Improving the communication of uncertainty in machine learning predictions.
method A comprehensive review of probabilistic prediction methods from early statistical models to recent machine learning algorithms.
result The review highlights the importance of consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules for assessing probabilistic predictions.
A new method combines federated learning and logistic regression for better credit scoring.
problem Improving credit scoring models while protecting data privacy.
method Projected gradient-based vertical federated learning (FL-LRBC) for logistic regression.
result Significant improvement in AUC and KS statistics due to data enrichment.
Semantic Embeddings are a popular way to represent knowledge in the field of zero-shot learning. We observe their interpretability and discuss their potential utility in a safety-critical context. Concretely, we propose to use them to add introspection and error detection capabilities to neural network classifiers. Fir…
Deep generative models are powerful tools that have produced impressive results in recent years. These advances have been for the most part empirically driven, making it essential that we use high quality evaluation metrics. In this paper, we provide new insights into the Inception Score, a recently proposed and widely…
ETM identifies field-specific keywords in text classification.
problem Unsupervised text classification with field-specific keywords.
method Weighted Lasso penalty and pairwise Kullback-Leibler divergence penalty for topic separation.
result ETM improves topic coherence by 22% and 10% compared to LDA.
A new method for stochastic optimal control improves accuracy over existing techniques.
problem Improving the accuracy of stochastic optimal control for noisy systems.
method Stochastic Optimal Control Matching (SOCM) using Iterative Diffusion Optimization (IDO) with path-wise reparameterization trick.
result SOCM achieves lower error than existing techniques for three out of four control problems, sometimes by an order of magnitude.
EnScale learns to downscale climate models efficiently, capturing both spatial and temporal consistency.
problem Downscaling climate models from coarse to high-resolution data is computationally expensive and challenging.
method EnScale uses generative models and proper scoring rules to map GCM data to RCM data, reducing computational cost.
result EnScale achieves competitive performance and computational efficiency in downscaling multiple climate variables.
New findings show score matching's accuracy doesn't ensure numerical stability in diffusion sampling.
problem Numerical stability issues in diffusion sampling despite small forward-marginal error.
method Constructing a smooth score field with arbitrarily small forward-marginal L2 error, showing nonexplosive behavior and moments of every order. result Euler--Maruyama discretizations can converge in probability even when moments diverge, demonstrating failure of weak convergence.
MFGs explain and enhance generative models, revealing new model types.
problem Understanding and improving generative models.
method Mean-field games (MFGs) as a framework to explain and enhance generative models.
result Established connections between MFGs and generative flows, diffusions, and gradient flows.
New neural network model improves treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data.
method Proposes a neural network model leveraging covariates and neighboring instances.
result Reports better treatment effect estimation performance.
Bayesian ODEs with Gaussian processes infer unknown dynamics from data.
problem Estimating unknown continuous-time system dynamics from data.
method Bayesian nonparametric model using Gaussian processes, sparse variational inference, probabilistic shooting.
result Posterior predictive uncertainty scores outperform alternative methods on multiple ODE learning tasks.
Probabilistic survival predictions from models trained with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) can have high, and sometimes unacceptably high variance. The field of meteorology, where the paradigm of maximizing sharpness subject to calibration is popular, has addressed this problem by using scoring rules beyond MLE, s…
Paper improves molecular property prediction using denoising autoencoders.
problem Limited data for molecular property prediction from 3D structures.
method Pre-training via denoising for learning molecular force fields.
result Achieves new state-of-the-art performance on QM9 dataset.
This paper enhances uplift modeling for multi-treatment marketing campaigns.
problem Optimizing marketing strategies by selecting individuals likely to respond to different treatments.
method Leveraging score ranking and calibration techniques.
result Improves overall performance of marketing campaigns.