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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,694 papers · 148 categories

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56112168224 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for score decomposition

This work introduces a bias-variance decomposition for proper scores, improving uncertainty estimation in predictive models.

problem Reliable uncertainty estimation for predictions in safety-critical applications, especially under domain drift.
method Developed a general bias-variance decomposition for proper scores, introducing the Bregman Information as the variance term.
result The decomposition provides novel formulations for different predictive tasks, including classification and model ensembles.

A novel framework quantifies uncertainty using proper scores for various tasks.

problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for reliable applications.
method Proposes a general framework based on proper scores for epistemic, aleatoric uncertainty, and model calibration.
result Achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation for large language models and generative models.

Improves reliability diagrams for probabilistic forecasts.

problem Lack of stability in reliability diagrams hampered their use.
method CORP approach using non-parametric isotonic regression and PAV algorithm.
result Improved reliability diagrams with statistical consistency and reproducibility.

Unified methods for fast column selection in various applications.

problem Efficiently selecting columns for low-rank approximations in data science and machine learning.
method Deterministic and randomized algorithms exploiting nuclear scores.
result Theoretical guarantees and performance bounds for column selection.

New method disentangles feature importance scores in machine learning.

problem Misinterpretation of feature importance scores due to interactions and dependencies.
method Derive DIP (Disentangled Importance) decomposition of feature importance scores.
result DIP decomposition uniquely separates standalone contributions from interactions and dependencies.

The paper introduces a new framework to assess generative model uncertainty.

problem Lack of a theoretical framework for assessing generative models' generalization and uncertainty.
method Bias-variance-covariance decomposition for kernel scores, with unbiased and consistent estimators.
result Kernel-based variance and entropy for uncertainty estimation are more predictive than existing methods.

Study federates measurement of demographic disparities from quantile sketches.

problem Misalignment of fairness goals with siloed data collection and privacy regulations.
method Federated auditing of demographic parity through score distributions, using Wasserstein--Frechet variance and quantile summaries.
result Proposes a one-shot, communication-efficient protocol to estimate global disparity and its decomposition.

The paper decomposes probabilistic scores into reliability, uncertainty, and information loss.

problem Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of probabilistic predictions.
method Developed decomposition identities for proper losses, quantifying reliability, residual uncertainty, and information gain.
result A three-term identity for classification scores, revealing miscalibration, grouping term, and feature-level uncertainty.

A method uses ITD and XGBoost for precise power transformer fault diagnosis.

problem Fault diagnosis of power transformers using DGA data.
method Ranking DGA parameters by skewness, extracting ITD features, and using an XGBoost classifier.
result The method achieves over 95% accuracy in classification.

Foresight Arena benchmarks AI forecasting on real-world markets, isolating predictive edge.

problem Evaluating AI forecasting ability in real-world markets is challenging due to overfitting, centralized trust, and conflated metrics.
method Permissionless, on-chain benchmark using probabilistic forecasts, commit-reveal protocol, and smart contracts.
result Demonstrates the need for 350 predictions to reliably distinguish agents of different skill levels.

We implement a Tensor Train layer in the TensorFlow Neural Machine Translation (NMT) model using the t3f library. We perform training runs on the IWSLT English-Vietnamese '15 and WMT German-English '16 datasets with learning rates {0.0004,0.0008,0.0012}\in \{0.0004,0.0008,0.0012\}, maximum ranks {2,4,8,16}\in \{2,4,8,16\} and a range of core dime…

2019-11-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper introduces SUEL model for integrating predictors without labeled data.

problem Combining predictors with unknown accuracy and high correlation.
method Structured unsupervised ensemble learning (SUEL) with correlation-based decomposition algorithms.
result Efficient integration of dependent predictors without labeled data.

We illustrate relationships between classical kernel-based dimensionality reduction techniques and eigendecompositions of empirical estimates of reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) operators associated with dynamical systems. In particular, we show that kernel canonical correlation analysis (CCA) can be interpreted…

2019-04-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.

problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.

Improved text-to-image alignment using iterative VQA feedback.

problem Misalignment between text prompts and generated images, especially for complex inputs.
method Decompose complex prompts into assertions, evaluate each using VQA, combine scores iteratively.
result Significantly higher correlation with human ratings compared to CLIP, BLIP scores.

Improved sample complexity for diffusion models without needing empirical risk minimizers.

problem Theoretical limitations in sample complexity for diffusion models.
method Structured decomposition of score estimation error, eliminating dependence on neural network parameters.
result Achieved sample complexity bound of O(ε^(-4)) without empirical risk minimizer access.

Improved diffusion models using energy distillation and sequential Monte Carlo.

problem Training instability and inferior performance in energy parameterized diffusion models.
method Introduced a novel training regime for energy functions through distillation of pre-trained diffusion models, and cast the sampling procedure as a Feynman Kac model.
result Demonstrated improved performance and new sampling techniques.

Improved diffusion models for generative tasks without dimensionality constraints.

problem Sample complexity bounds for learning score functions in diffusion models.
method Dimension-free sample complexity bounds, martingale-based error decomposition, variance reduction technique (Bootstrapped Score Matching).
result Achieved a double exponential improvement in sample complexity over prior results.

New geometric analysis shows L2L^2 score error is flawed for diffusion models.

problem Score matching errors in diffusion models do not fully capture distributional quality.
method Decomposed score errors into gradient and solenoidal components, focusing on gradient's role in Fokker-Planck dynamics.
result Only gradient component affects marginal distributional quality; solenoidal component is structurally invisible.

Score matching errors are not sufficient for measuring diffusion model quality.

problem The L2L^2 score matching error is not a reliable measure of diffusion model performance.
method Decomposed score errors into gradient and solenoidal components and analyzed their geometric properties.
result Only the gradient component of the score error affects the marginal distributional quality.

Proposes a new method for feature selection using Bayesian ID with intervention.

problem Feature selection in data with varying importance.
method Probabilistic model for interpolative decomposition with Bayesian inference and Gibbs sampling.
result The proposed Bayesian ID algorithm with intervention selects features with higher priority and comparable reconstructive errors.

HiJoD detects misinformation using multiple aspects and outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

problem Detecting misinformation with limited labeled data.
method Hierarchical Joint Decomposition framework combining content, context, and domain features.
result HiJoD achieves F1-scores of 74% and 81% on Twitter and Politifact datasets respectively, and is faster than similar approaches.

The paper analyzes the score field of diffusion models using Burgers dynamics.

problem Understanding the evolution of score fields in diffusion models.
method Analyzes the score field through Burgers-type evolution law for diffusion models.
result Identifies a universal \( anh\) interfacial term in the score field.

This is a detailed tutorial paper which explains the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Supervised PCA (SPCA), kernel PCA, and kernel SPCA. We start with projection, PCA with eigen-decomposition, PCA with one and multiple projection directions, properties of the projection matrix, reconstruction error minimization, an…

2019-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

New method optimizes portfolios by dynamically integrating ESG constraints.

problem Static ESG scores mismatch sequential portfolio decisions.
method MACF-X, a family of adapters that learns ESG costs from multimodal evidence.
result Reduces tail ESG budget pressure while maintaining financial performance.

Feature learning forms the cornerstone for tackling challenging learning problems in domains such as speech, computer vision and natural language processing. In this paper, we consider a novel class of matrix and tensor-valued features, which can be pre-trained using unlabeled samples. We present efficient algorithms f…

2014-12-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The study improves theoretical understanding of using multiple synthetic datasets for better model accuracy.

problem Lack of theoretical understanding of using multiple synthetic datasets for supervised learning.
method Derive bias-variance decompositions for multiple synthetic datasets settings.
result A simple rule of thumb to select the appropriate number of synthetic datasets.

Framework monitors insurance pricing models for drift and recalibration.

problem Maintaining predictive performance of pricing models in evolving insurance portfolios.
method Formalizes deviance loss and Murphy's score, studies Gini score, develops monitoring framework.
result Framework guides decisions on refitting or recalibrating pricing models.

New framework for discrete-state diffusion models reduces sample complexity.

problem Lack of theoretical understanding and sample complexity analysis for discrete-state diffusion models.
method Developed a principled theoretical framework, decomposing score estimation error.
result Established sample complexity bound of O~(ε2)\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(ε^{-2}).

Classifiers and rating scores are prone to implicitly codifying biases, which may be present in the training data, against protected classes (i.e., age, gender, or race). So it is important to understand how to design classifiers and scores that prevent discrimination in predictions. This paper develops computationally…

2017-10-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Class labels have been empirically shown useful in improving the sample quality of generative adversarial nets (GANs). In this paper, we mathematically study the properties of the current variants of GANs that make use of class label information. With class aware gradient and cross-entropy decomposition, we reveal how …

2017-03-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves KRR for non-i.i.d. data, with applications in denoising.

problem Kernel regression in structured non-i.i.d. settings.
method Developed a blockwise decomposition method for dependent data, deriving excess risk bounds.
result Established generalization guarantees for KRR in non-i.i.d. settings.

New metric for disentangling multivariate representations, accounting for more complex entanglements.

problem Current disentanglement metrics fail to detect entanglements involving more than two variables.
method Partial Information Decomposition framework to analyze information sharing and propose a new disentanglement metric.
result The proposed metric correctly identifies entanglements in high-dimensional spaces.

From linear classifiers to neural networks, image classification has been a widely explored topic in mathematics, and many algorithms have proven to be effective classifiers. However, the most accurate classifiers typically have significantly high storage costs, or require complicated procedures that may be computation…

2017-06-29abs ↗pdf ↗

New method assesses individual training points' privacy risk without retraining.

problem Privacy vulnerability of individual training points in membership inference attacks.
method Derives a closed-form decomposition of individual black-box MIA vulnerability, extending to deep networks.
result Proposes a surrogate score operating on last-layer representations that requires only a single trained model.

ForesightFlow detects informed trading on prediction markets using an information leakage score.

problem Detecting informed trading on decentralized prediction markets.
method Developed an Information Leakage Score (ILS) framework to quantify the fraction of terminal information move priced in before public news events.
result The score connects label generation to proper-scoring-rule literature and reveals systematic biases in insider trading documentation.

The paper proposes a method to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for correlated target variables.

problem Constructing well-calibrated prediction sets for correlated target variables.
method The method uses vine copulas to estimate the joint cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores and improves the asymptotic efficiency of the quantile estimate.
result The method guarantees asymptotically exact coverage and competitive efficiency on real-world regression problems.