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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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48 results for scientific selection

Before retiring, looking back to forty years of writing and publishing scientific papers, I decided to present to the scientific community a selection of my scientific works. I chose mostly articles published in prestigious journals or Proceedings that made a certain impact in the scientific world. I have selected thir…

2012-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper explores MMPR to select diverse models for scientific insight.

problem Model selection often fails to bring multiple underlying patterns to light.
method Multi-model penalized regression (MMPR) to acknowledge model uncertainty.
result Different penalty settings can promote either shrinkage or sparsity of coefficients in separate models.

iKF method uncovers complex variable interactions for scientific discovery.

problem Limited interpretability of existing models in decision-making applications.
method Iterative Kings' Forests (iKF) method to uncover multi-order interactions.
result iKF provides strong interpretive power for explainable modeling.

New method speeds up model selection for complex scientific tasks.

problem Exhaustive model selection is computationally infeasible for large model spaces.
method Branch-and-bound algorithm with non-monotonic criteria.
result Guaranteed identification of optimal models with significant computational speedups.

Framework evaluates AI proposals for drug discovery, finds no LLM advantage.

problem No principled framework exists for evaluating AI-guided scientific selection under budget constraints.
method Formally verified metric (BSDS/DQS) penalizes false discoveries and excessive abstention.
result LLMs provide no marginal value over existing classifiers in drug discovery.

Practical or scientific considerations often lead to selecting a subset of parameters as ``important.'' Inferences about those parameters often are based on the same data used to select them in the first place. That can make the reported uncertainties deceptively optimistic: confidence intervals that ignore selection g…

2019-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

In the era of big data, analysts usually explore various statistical models or machine learning methods for observed data in order to facilitate scientific discoveries or gain predictive power. Whatever data and fitting procedures are employed, a crucial step is to select the most appropriate model or method from a set…

2018-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

CausalGame benchmarks LLM agents' causal thinking in games.

problem Evaluating causal thinking in AI Scientists with LLMs.
method Interactive games with 14 scenarios incorporating selection bias, measurement error, and hidden confounders.
result None of the 30 LLM agents demonstrated reliable causal thinking, with the best model achieving only 68.0% survival.

Develops a Bayesian framework for symbolic regression of scientific expressions.

problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification and interpretability in existing symbolic regression methods.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework with tree-structured symbolic expressions and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference.
result Robust performance on various datasets, including single-atom catalysis.

In recent years, ideas from statistics and scientific computing have begun to interact in increasingly sophisticated and fruitful ways with ideas from computer science and the theory of algorithms to aid in the development of improved worst-case algorithms that are useful for large-scale scientific and Internet data an…

2010-10-08abs ↗pdf ↗

GSR optimizes tasks in scientific workflows, improving performance across diverse applications.

problem Uncertainty in task selection and evaluation in scientific workflow optimization.
method Generate-Select-Refine (GSR) framework that alternates between task generation and optimization.
result GSR outperforms existing LLM-based optimizers in various scientific applications.

PRISM infers model structures and parameters from simulations, controlling complexity at test time.

problem Choosing among large model families for scientific discovery.
method Simulation-based encoder-decoder that infers model structures and parameters, with test-time complexity control.
result PRISM scales to large model families and performs model selection in biophysical diffusion MRI.

This paper provides a guide to feature importance methods for better scientific inference.

problem Limited understanding of data-generating process due to opaque ML model mechanisms.
method Comprehensive review and new proofs of global feature importance methods.
result Facilitates a thorough understanding and concrete recommendations for FI methods.

FreB protocol uses AI to infer hidden parameters with valid confidence regions.

problem Generating biased or overconfident conclusions from AI-generated posterior distributions.
method Frequentist-Bayes (FreB) protocol reshapes AI-generated posterior distributions into valid confidence regions.
result FreB provides valid confidence regions that consistently include true parameters with expected probability.

LLMs fail to match statistical ground truth despite stable run-to-run performance.

problem LLMs lack validation against statistical ground truth in automated scientific workflows.
method Introduced a behavioral evaluation framework for LLMs, separating four decision-making dimensions.
result LLMs can exhibit near-perfect stability but diverge from statistical ground truth.

Interpretable classification models are built with the purpose of providing a comprehensible description of the decision logic to an external oversight agent. When considered in isolation, a decision tree, a set of classification rules, or a linear model, are widely recognized as human-interpretable. However, such mode…

2018-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Refining one's hypotheses in the light of data is a common scientific practice; however, the dependency on the data introduces selection bias and can lead to specious statistical analysis. An approach for addressing this is via conditioning on the selection procedure to account for how we have used the data to generate…

2019-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical techniques. Specific attention is paid to the Laplace approximation, variational Ba…

2014-11-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian framework integrates spectral deconvolution with expert reasoning for robust peak estimation.

problem Challenges in extracting meaningful peaks from noisy or complex spectra.
method Bayesian spectral deconvolution coupled with a physical-property regression layer.
result Recovery of weak peaks in poly(lactic acid) IR spectra related to degradation rates.

Polynomial chaos surrogates quantify epistemic uncertainty in AI-driven scientific models.

problem Uncertainty in reward estimates hinders interpretability in sequential generative models.
method Fit polynomial chaos expansions to trained models to propagate epistemic uncertainty and quantify sensitivity.
result Interpretable decomposition of reward components driving generative decisions.

NGMs create mirrored features to assess neural network feature importance.

problem Lack of feature relevance information in DNNs limits their applicability.
method Structured perturbation and kernel-based conditional dependence measure for feature importance evaluation.
result Controls feature selection error rate and maintains high selection power with correlated features.

The paper develops a test for independence of selected Gaussian variables after thresholding correlations.

problem Testing independence of selected Gaussian variables after thresholding correlations.
method The approach involves conditioning on the selection event and using a new characterization of the conditioning event in terms of canonical correlation.
result The proposed test has higher power than a naive approach that ignores selection effects.

Stability is an important aspect of a classification procedure because unstable predictions can potentially reduce users' trust in a classification system and also harm the reproducibility of scientific conclusions. The major goal of our work is to introduce a novel concept of classification instability, i.e., decision…

2017-01-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning improves network classification and model selection.

problem Quantifying suitability of generative models for network structures.
method Interpretable machine learning to classify simulated networks based on features and interactions.
result Specific network features and their interactions are crucial for distinguishing generative models.

Gryffin optimizes categorical variables in materials design, leveraging expert knowledge.

problem Optimizing categorical variables in complex design choices like molecule selection.
method Bayesian optimization with smooth approximations to categorical distributions, incorporating expert knowledge.
result Gryffin accelerates discovery of promising molecules and materials, highlighting relevant correlations.

Online method selects candidates from data streams, ensuring irreversible decisions.

problem Conformal selection's incompatibility with irreversible decisions in online scenarios.
method Online Conformal Selection with Accept-to-Reject Changes (OCS-ARC) incorporating online Benjamini-Hochberg procedure.
result OCS-ARC controls FDR at or below nominal level, improving selection power.

A method selects candidates based on predictions with statistical control.

problem Screening candidates for resource-intensive steps like hiring or drug discovery.
method Wraps around any prediction model to produce a subset of candidates with controlled false selection rate.
result Empirically demonstrates selection of candidates whose predictions exceed a data-dependent threshold.

New architectures improve KANs, making them more interpretable and accurate.

problem Improving Kolmogorov-Arnold networks while maintaining interpretability.
method Overprovisioned architectures combined with sparsification, deep supervision, and depth selection, optimized with a minimum description length objective.
result Combining sparsification with depth selection achieves competitive or superior accuracy while discovering smaller models.

Understanding how features interact with each other is of paramount importance in many scientific discoveries and contemporary applications. Yet interaction identification becomes challenging even for a moderate number of covariates. In this paper, we suggest an efficient and flexible procedure, called the interaction …

2016-05-28abs ↗pdf ↗

FAStEN efficiently selects features in high-dimensional functional data.

problem Feature selection in high-dimensional functional regression problems.
method Combines functional data, optimization, and machine learning techniques.
result Significant reduction in computational cost and improved selection accuracy.

New methods for selecting variables in complex biomedical data.

problem Selecting important variables in multivariate, functional, and complex biomedical data.
method Optimization-based variable selection methods for various regression models.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy and speed.

xVal tokenizes numbers continuously for better scientific model training.

problem Lack of continuous numerical tokenization for scientific datasets in LLMs.
method xVal: Continuous numerical tokenization strategy.
result xVal outperforms other numerical tokenization methods on scientific datasets.