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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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8.3%16.7%25.0%33.3% · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for scenario optimization

Study optimal timing to divest from assets with uncertain future scenarios.

problem Optimal timing to divest from assets with uncertain future scenarios.
method Smooth model of decision making under ambiguity aversion, optimal stopping problem with learning.
result Proves a minimax result reducing the problem to standard optimal stopping problems with learning.

Optimizes power systems with energy storage under uncertainty using scenario-based method.

problem Optimizing power systems with energy storage, intermittent renewable generation, and uncontrollable loads under uncertainty.
method Developed a novel solution method based on scenario optimization and strategic sampling to solve the chance-constrained optimal power system operation problem.
result The strategic sampling method significantly improves computational efficiency and data-driven convex approximation of power flow.

Multi-stage financial decision optimization under uncertainty depends on a careful numerical approximation of the underlying stochastic process, which describes the future returns of the selected assets or asset categories. Various approaches towards an optimal generation of discrete-time, discrete-state approximations…

2009-12-08abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes an efficient nested simulation design using likelihood ratio method.

problem Designing nested simulations with fixed outer scenarios and minimizing simulation effort.
method Proposes a bi-level optimization problem to decide inner replications and pooling strategies.
result Optimized design achieves $\cO(Γ^{-1})$ mean squared error of estimators.

New method tackles rugged optimization landscapes in contact-rich scenarios.

problem Optimization challenges in dynamic environments with deformable objects.
method Combines Bayesian optimization with semi-local 'leaps' for global search.
result Outperforms gradient-based and gradient-free baselines in simulation and real robot experiments.

New method selects critical DER scenarios for distribution grid investment planning.

problem Determining critical DER adoption scenarios for risk assessment in distribution grids.
method Bayesian Optimization framework using Gaussian Process surrogates and Pareto-critical acquisition function.
result Statistical guarantee and significant speed-up over exhaustive search in selecting critical DER scenarios.

Develops new optimization techniques for decision-making under uncertainty.

problem Decision-making under uncertainty with complex cost functions and nested expectations.
method Introduces Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization (MCCO) and develops multilevel Monte Carlo techniques.
result New optimization techniques reduce scenario complexity from exponential to polynomial growth.

DARL uses DDPMs to generate synthetic market crash scenarios for robust portfolio optimization.

problem Challenges in capturing complex market dynamics and aligning with diverse investor preferences.
method Synergistic integration of DDPMs and DRL for portfolio management.
result DARL outperforms traditional methods in delivering superior risk-adjusted returns and resilience against crises.

BRAID fine-tunes diffusion models to optimize reward models in offline scenarios.

problem Combining generative modeling and model-based optimization in offline scenarios.
method Conservative fine-tuning of diffusion models using RL to optimize reward models.
result BRAID outperforms existing methods in offline data, avoiding invalid designs.

Generates multimodal safety-critical scenarios for robustness evaluation of decision-making algorithms.

problem Lack of comprehensive evaluation of neural network robustness under real-world scenarios.
method Proposes a flow-based multimodal scenario generator using weighted likelihood maximization and gradient-based sampling.
result Demonstrates improved testing efficiency and multimodal modeling capability compared to traditional methods.

SmoothFBO tackles non-stationary functional bilevel optimization.

problem Current FBO methods are limited to static offline settings and perform poorly in online, non-stationary scenarios.
method SmoothFBO introduces a time-smoothed stochastic hypergradient estimator with a window parameter to handle non-stationarity.
result SmoothFBO achieves sublinear regret and outperforms existing methods in non-stationary hyperparameter optimization and model-based reinforcement learning.

Investigates timing and asset allocation for life insurance in uncertain financial planning.

problem Optimal timing and asset allocation for life insurance in uncertain financial planning.
method Analytical solutions using duality theory and free-boundary problems.
result Explicit expressions for value functions and optimal strategies in both scenarios.

This paper forecasts renewable energy prospects in South America through cross-border interconnection.

problem Lack of renewable energy integration across South American countries.
method Long-term scenario forecasting methodology applied to raw data from typical countries.
result Promoting cross-border interconnection towards renewables can optimize energy supply, reduce costs, and balance the energy matrix.

New bounds improve generalization in learning scenarios.

problem Limitations of existing information-theoretic bounds in SCO problems.
method Sample-conditioned hypothesis stability and neighboring-hypothesis matrix.
result Sharper generalization guarantees in various learning scenarios.

Paper tackles optimal policy learning with observational data in multi-action scenarios.

problem Optimal policy learning in multi-action settings with observational data.
method Review of estimation approaches, analysis of risk preference, discussion of potential failures.
result Average regret of a policy with multi-valued treatment is contingent on the decision-maker's attitude towards risk.

Bayesian optimization surveys information-theoretic acquisition functions.

problem Optimizing noisy, expensive, non-convex functions with unknown gradients.
method Bayesian optimization using Gaussian process surrogate models and information-theoretic acquisition functions.
result Information-theoretic acquisition functions outperform others in real scenarios.

Paper introduces a new method for calibrating ESGs to both historical and forward-looking data.

problem Lack of a generally accepted methodology for calibrating ESGs to forward-looking information.
method Conditional Scenario Simulator framework for consistent calibration of economic and financial variables.
result Framework can embed various financial and macroeconomic models and demonstrate practical examples in frequentist and Bayesian settings.

Algorithm reduces historical expected shortfall computation by focusing on worst-case scenarios.

problem Computing the historical expected shortfall efficiently and accurately.
method Multi-step algorithm using Monte Carlo simulations to identify and reduce the number of worst-case scenarios.
result Non-asymptotic bounds for the L p-error of the expected shortfall estimator are derived.

New approach avoids restrictive assumptions for optimal portfolio in default risk scenarios.

problem Optimal portfolio optimization under default risk when traditional techniques are not applicable.
method Alternative approach using forward integration to avoid Jacod density hypothesis.
result Weaker intensity hypothesis is the appropriate condition for optimality in logarithmic utility.

A new approach for green investing in Indian markets considers environmental factors.

problem Identifying and managing climate risk in sustainable investing.
method Combining ESG ratings with modern portfolio theory and scenario analysis.
result The green portfolio performs better than market returns, highlighting the importance of climate risk.

The extragradient method accelerates convergence in complex game dynamics.

problem Complex interactions in game dynamics cause simple methods to diverge, necessitating more sophisticated approaches.
method A polynomial-based analysis to identify three scenarios for accelerated convergence of the momentum extragradient method.
result The momentum extragradient method achieves faster convergence under specific eigenvalue conditions.

The paper improves robust optimization by introducing margin theory.

problem Improving the reliability of solutions in high-dimensional robust optimization.
method Introducing margin theory to improve sample complexity and reliability of solutions.
result The sample complexity of a class of random programs does not depend on the number of variables.

BALLET filters a high-confidence region of interest for Bayesian optimization.

problem High-dimensional and non-stationary Bayesian optimization challenges.
method Adaptive level-set estimation using two probabilistic models.
result Ballets can efficiently shrink the search space and exhibit tighter regret bounds.

New method optimizes experiments under constraints.

problem Adapting BED to dynamic constraints in real-world tasks.
method Offline pre-training of an amortized policy and posterior network with online multi-step lookahead planning.
result Significantly more informative design sequences than existing methods.

A new method for generating SPX and VIX risk scenarios using perturbed optimal transport.

problem Generating accurate risk estimates for SPX and VIX without full recalibration.
method A joint optimal transport calibration with perturbation methodology for sensitivities, combined with Skew Stickiness Ratio dynamics.
result The proposed method produces accurate risk estimates relative to full recalibration and is computationally faster.

Study optimizes market making in Chinese stock market with stochastic control and scenario analysis.

problem Limited research on market making in Chinese stock market.
method Optimal market making framework with exponential CARA utility function, accounting for market conditions and risks.
result Impact of volatility and stamp duty on market maker's profit and liquidity.

To integrate strategic, tactical and operational decisions, the two-stage optimization has been widely used to guide dynamic decision making. In this paper, we study the two-stage stochastic programming for complex systems with unknown response estimated by simulation. We introduce the global-local metamodel assisted t…

2019-10-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep learning methods achieve state-of-the-art performance in many application scenarios. Yet, these methods require a significant amount of hyperparameters tuning in order to achieve the best results. In particular, tuning the learning rates in the stochastic optimization process is still one of the main bottlenecks. …

2017-05-22abs ↗pdf ↗

CPRA efficiently finds diverse solutions in CO problems using UL and parallelization.

problem Finding optimal solutions often requires diverse outcomes in real-world applications.
method CPRA, an UL-based framework, discovers shared representations to generate diverse solutions.
result CPRA outperforms existing UL-based solvers in generating diverse solutions.

Paper shows MoM is optimal under adversarial contamination for certain distributions.

problem Optimality of MoM under adversarial contamination.
method Upper and lower bounds for MoM's error under adversarial contamination.
result MoM is (minimax) optimal for distributions with finite variance and infinite variance with finite absolute moments.

The paper analyzes optimal liquidation strategies for cryptocurrencies considering both temporary and permanent price impacts.

problem Optimal liquidation strategies for cryptocurrencies in the presence of price impacts.
method Analytical and numerical solutions, including finite differences and optimal policy iteration.
result Optimal liquidation policies vary based on the functional form of temporary and permanent price impacts.

SRO optimizes decisions against worst-case sampler induced by generative models.

problem Operational uncertainty shifts from explicit probability law to sampler induced by learned generators.
method SRO optimizes decisions against the worst-case sampler induced by perturbing the learned generator.
result Empirical worst-case objective provides high-probability upper certificate for true population objective.

This paper tackles deferral learning with multiple experts, providing strong theoretical guarantees.

problem Optimizing input assignment to experts balancing accuracy and computational cost.
method Introducing new surrogate loss functions and efficient algorithms with strong theoretical learning guarantees.
result Realizable HH-consistency, HH-consistency bounds, and Bayes-consistency for deferral learning.

Agents trained with reinforcement learning deviate from Nash equilibrium in optimal execution game.

problem Deviation of reinforcement learning strategies from Nash equilibrium in optimal execution game.
method Two-player optimal execution game with reinforcement learning algorithms (Double Deep Q-Learning).
result Strategies learned by agents deviate significantly from Nash equilibrium, exhibiting supra-competitive solutions.