A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a new framework for environmental CVA with robust wrong-way risk.
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank's internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. Quantification of operational risk cannot be base…
Future grid scenario analysis requires a major departure from conventional power system planning, where only a handful of most critical conditions is typically analyzed. To capture the inter-seasonal variations in renewable generation of a future grid scenario necessitates the use of computationally intensive time-seri…
A Python tool generates synthetic data for cluster analysis from high-level descriptions.
We study the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem in the case when the arm samples are dependent over time and generated from so-called weak $\cC$-mixing processes. We establish a $\cC-$Mix Improved UCB agorithm and provide both problem-dependent and independent regret analysis in two different scenarios. In the first…
This paper formed part of a preliminary research report for a risk consultancy and academic research. Stochastic Programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are represented by a discrete scenario tree and the quality of the solutions obtained i…
Paper tackles complex risk in deep neural networks.
As regulators pay more attentions to losses rather than gains, we are able to derive a new class of risk statistics, named regulator-based risk statistics with scenario analysis in this paper. This new class of risk statistics can be considered as a kind of risk extension of risk statistics introduced by Kou et al. \ci…
Proposes a new uncertain volatility model with worst-case scenario analysis.
A new approach for green investing in Indian markets considers environmental factors.
The extragradient method accelerates convergence in complex game dynamics.
We present a novel methodology to determine the fundamental value of firms in the social-networking sector based on two ingredients: (i) revenues and profits are inherently linked to its user basis through a direct channel that has no equivalent in other sectors; (ii) the growth of the number of users can be calibrated…
FEET protocol evaluates foundation models across three scenarios.
Study optimizes market making in Chinese stock market with stochastic control and scenario analysis.
We present a new analysis of the problem of learning with drifting distributions in the batch setting using the notion of discrepancy. We prove learning bounds based on the Rademacher complexity of the hypothesis set and the discrepancy of distributions both for a drifting PAC scenario and a tracking scenario. Our boun…
Developing an AI economist agent using RAG, knowledge graphs, and LLMs for economic scenario analysis.
A framework for analyzing financial systems under scenario constraints.
Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) simulates realistic multi-asset scenarios for tail risk.
A model-free method analyzes trading strategies using excursion paths.
We develop a robust framework for pricing and hedging of derivative securities in discrete-time financial markets. We consider markets with both dynamically and statically traded assets and make minimal measurability assumptions. We obtain an abstract (pointwise) Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and Pricing--Hedgin…
The paper uses TDA to select stocks for a sparse portfolio, improving performance across market scenarios.
New method for robust financial portfolio analysis.
Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) has long been considered a powerful heuristic for attacking compressive sensing problems; however, its theoretical development is, unfortunately, somewhat lacking. This paper presents an improved Restricted Isometry Property (RIP) based performance guarantee for T-sparse signal reconst…
Federated learning has become increasingly important for modern machine learning, especially for data privacy-sensitive scenarios. Existing federated learning mostly adopts the central server-based architecture or centralized architecture. However, in many social network scenarios, centralized federated learning is not…
Study shows benefits of transfer learning with neural networks.
LLMs show biases in investment analysis, leading to unreliable recommendations.
Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) are popular unsupervised artificial neural network used to reduce dimensions and visualize data. Visual interpretation from Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) has been limited due to grid approach of data representation, which makes inter-scenario analysis impossible. The paper proposes a new way to …
TimeTrail detects financial fraud patterns through temporal correlation analysis.
In this work we explore the use of metric index structures, which accelerate nearest neighbor queries, in the scenario where we need to interleave insertions and queries during deployment. This use-case is inspired by a real-life need in malware analysis triage, and is surprisingly understudied. Existing literature ten…
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
Paper improves SVaR estimation for stress testing under macro scenarios using a hybrid GPR-HS framework.
In this paper, we present a novel approach to the generation of virtual scenarios of multivariate financial data of arbitrary length and composition of assets. With this approach, decades of realistic time-synchronized data can be simulated for a large number of assets, producing diverse scenarios to test and improve q…
The paper analyzes identifiability in ODE systems with hidden confounders.
Paper tackles optimal policy learning with observational data in multi-action scenarios.
We applied the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to detect possible bubbles and crashes related to the Brexit/Bremain referendum scheduled for 23rd June 2016. Our implementation includes an enhanced model calibration using Genetic Algorithms. We selected a few historical financial series sensitive to the Brexit/Brem…
Introduces neural network for interval-censored survival analysis.
This paper forecasts renewable energy prospects in South America through cross-border interconnection.
A blockchain-based federated learning system with latency analysis.
Extends LIBOR market model to reduce exploding scenarios.
We study Generalised Restricted Boltzmann Machines with generic priors for units and weights, interpolating between Boolean and Gaussian variables. We present a complete analysis of the replica symmetric phase diagram of these systems, which can be regarded as Generalised Hopfield models. We underline the role of the r…
In this paper, we propose two new algorithms for transduction with Matrix Completion (MC) problem. The joint MC and prediction tasks are addressed simultaneously to enhance the accuracy, i.e., the label matrix is concatenated to the data matrix forming a stacked matrix. Assuming the data matrix is of low rank, we propo…
We consider the multi armed bandit problem in non-stationary environments. Based on the Bayesian method, we propose a variant of Thompson Sampling which can be used in both rested and restless bandit scenarios. Applying discounting to the parameters of prior distribution, we describe a way to systematically reduce the …
The paper explores how macroeconomic variables' correlation structure changes over time and under different scenarios.
In this paper we investigate predictability of electricity prices in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Ontario, as well as in the US Mid-C market. Using scale-dependent detrended fluctuation analysis, spectral analysis, and the probability distribution analysis we show that the studied markets exhibit strongly anti…
Paper addresses eigenvector perturbation in small eigen-gap scenarios.
Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has been proven to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions can be both categorical and continuous variables containing…
Paper extends top-k Mallows model for better user preference analysis.
Investigates timing and asset allocation for life insurance in uncertain financial planning.