Network embedding aims to learn the low-dimensional representations of vertexes in a network, while structure and inherent properties of the network is preserved. Existing network embedding works primarily focus on preserving the microscopic structure, such as the first- and second-order proximity of vertexes, while th…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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Learning the network structure underlying data is an important problem in machine learning. This paper introduces a novel prior to study the inference of scale-free networks, which are widely used to model social and biological networks. The prior not only favors a desirable global node degree distribution, but also ta…
We propose a simple dynamical model of the formation of production networks among monopolistically competitive firms. The model subsumes the standard general equilibrium approach à la Arrow-Debreu but displays a wide set of potential dynamic behaviors. It robustly reproduces key stylized facts of firms' demographics. O…
A key problem in statistics and machine learning is the determination of network structure from data. We consider the case where the structure of the graph to be reconstructed is known to be scale-free. We show that in such cases it is natural to formulate structured sparsity inducing priors using submodular functions,…
General Motors or a local business, which one is better to be stimulated in post-crisis recessions, where government stimulation is meant to overcome recessions? Due to the budget constraints, it is quite relevant to ask how one can increase the chance of economic recovery. One of the key elements to answer this questi…
Multi-agent models have been used in many contexts to study generic collective behavior. Similarly, complex networks have become very popular because of the diversity of growth rules giving rise to scale-free behavior. Here we study adaptive networks where the agents trade ``wealth'' when they are linked together while…
We generalize the scale-free network model of Barabàsi and Albert [Science 286, 509 (1999)] by proposing a class of stochastic models for scale-free interdependent networks in which interdependent nodes are not randomly connected but rather are connected via preferential attachment (PA). Each network grows through the …
Financial markets display scale-free behavior in many different aspects. The power-law behavior of part of the distribution of individual wealth has been recognized by Pareto as early as the nineteenth century. Heavy-tailed and scale-free behavior of the distribution of returns of different financial assets have been c…
CATNet predicts CAT bond spreads using graph-based deep learning.
We find numerical and empirical evidence for dynamical, structural and topological phase transitions on the (German) Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FSE) in the temporal vicinity of the worldwide financial crash. Using the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) technique, a particularly useful canonical tool of the graph theory, two tr…
New algorithm tackles multi-armed bandit with arbitrary delays and general bounded losses.
This paper presents the first topological analysis of the economic structure of an entire country based on payments data obtained from Swedbank. This data set is exclusive in its kind because around 80% of Estonia's bank transactions are done through Swedbank, hence, the economic structure of the country can be reconst…
This study analyzes economic policy uncertainty indices using visibility graphs.
We propose a network description of large market investments, where both stocks and shareholders are represented as vertices connected by weighted links corresponding to shareholdings. In this framework, the in-degree () and the sum of incoming link weights () of an investor correspond to the number of asset…
Model shows how traders' interactions can create market patterns.
Many systems of different nature exhibit scale free behaviors. Economic systems with power law distribution in the wealth is one of the examples. To better understand the working behind the complexity, we undertook an empirical study measuring the interactions between market participants. A Web server was setup to admi…
Spectral denoising recovers meaningful network structure from noisy financial correlations.
A large collection of daily time series for 60 world currencies' exchange rates is considered. The correlation matrices are calculated and the corresponding Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) graphs are constructed for each of those currencies used as reference for the remaining ones. It is shown that multiplicity of the MST …
The paper proposes using low rank assumption to improve causal structure learning in DAGs.
Although standard economics textbooks are seldom interested in production networks, modern economies are more and more based upon suppliers/customers interactions. One can consider entire sectors of the economy as generalised supply chains. We will take this view in the present paper and study under which conditions lo…
Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) embed nodes in a graph into Euclidean space, which has been shown to incur a large distortion when embedding real-world graphs with scale-free or hierarchical structure. Hyperbolic geometry offers an exciting alternative, as it enables embeddings with much smaller distortion. …
We consider the evolution of scale-free networks according to preferential attachment schemes and show the conditions for which the exponent characterizing the degree distribution is bounded by upper and lower values. Our framework is an agent model, presented in the context of economic networks of trades, which shows …
We develop a simple theoretical framework for the evolution of weighted networks that is consistent with a number of stylized features of real-world data. In our framework, the Barabasi-Albert model of network evolution is extended by assuming that link weights evolve according to a geometric Brownian motion. Our model…
We investigate the wealth evolution in a system of agents that exchange wealth through a disordered network in presence of an additive stochastic Gaussian noise. We show that the resulting wealth distribution is shaped by the degree distribution of the underlying network and in particular we verify that scale free netw…
New learning dynamics achieve fast convergence in games without needing to know utility scales.
In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes…
Existing strategies for finite-armed stochastic bandits mostly depend on a parameter of scale that must be known in advance. Sometimes this is in the form of a bound on the payoffs, or the knowledge of a variance or subgaussian parameter. The notable exceptions are the analysis of Gaussian bandits with unknown mean and…
Study examines NFT market dynamics using correlation and noise analysis.
The agent-based model of stock price dynamics on a directed evolving complex network is suggested and studied by direct simulation. The stationary regime is maintained as a result of the balance between the extremal dynamics, adaptivity of strategic variables and reconnection rules. The inherent structure of node agent…
New algorithm bounds MAB regret for unknown scale and magnitude of losses.
This paper uses two hierarchical techniques, a minimal spanning tree and an ultrametric hierarchical tree, to extract a topological influence map for major currencies from the ultrametric distance matrix for 1996-2001. We find that these two techniques generate a defined and robust scale free network with meaningful ta…
A large set of daily FOREX time series is analyzed. The corresponding correlation matrices (CM) are constructed for USD, EUR and PLZ used as the base currencies. The triangle rule is interpreted as constraints reducing the number of independent returns. The CM spectrum is computed and compared with the cases of shuffle…
Nonlinear dimensionality reduction embeddings computed from datasets do not provide a mechanism to compute the inverse map. In this paper, we address the problem of computing a stable inverse map to such a general bi-Lipschitz map. Our approach relies on radial basis functions (RBFs) to interpolate the inverse map ever…
We conduct a market experiment with human agents in order to explore the structure of transaction networks and to study the dynamics of wealth accumulation. The experiment is carried out on our platform for 97 days with 2,095 effective participants and 16,936 times of transactions. From these data, the hybrid distribut…
BDH model learns like the brain, rivaling Transformer performance.
Graph neural networks detect structural perturbations from time series data.
In high-dimensional data analysis, regularization methods pursuing sparsity and/or low rank have received a lot of attention recently. To provide a proper amount of shrinkage, it is typical to use a grid search and a model comparison criterion to find the optimal regularization parameters. However, we show that fixing …
StochasticRank optimizes ranking metrics efficiently and guarantees global convergence.
Money flow models are essential tools to understand different economical phenomena, like saving propensities and wealth distributions. In spite of their importance, most of them are based on synthetic transaction networks with simple topologies, e.g. random or scale-free ones, as the characterisation of real networks i…
We show that removing sigmoid transformation in the skip-gram with negative sampling (SGNS) objective does not harm the quality of word vectors significantly and at the same time is related to factorizing a squashed shifted PMI matrix which, in turn, can be treated as a connection probabilities matrix of a random graph…
This research investigated the potential for improving Peer-to-Peer (P2P) credit scoring by using "private information" about communications and travels of borrowers. We found that P2P borrowers' ego networks exhibit scale-free behavior driven by underlying preferential attachment mechanisms that connect borrowers in a…
P2P lending activities have grown rapidly and have caused the huge and complex networks of debtor-creditor relationships. The aim of this study was to study the underlying structural characteristics of networks formed by debtor-creditor relationships. According attributes of P2P lending, this paper model the networks o…
Stochastic block models (SBMs) have been playing an important role in modeling clusters or community structures of network data. But, it is incapable of handling several complex features ubiquitously exhibited in real-world networks, one of which is the power-law degree characteristic. To this end, we propose a new var…
Recently, the visibility graph has been introduced as a novel view for analyzing time series, which maps it to a complex network. In this paper, we introduce new algorithm of visibility, "cross-visibility", which reveals the conjugation of two coupled time series. The correspondence between the two time series is mappe…
Using a model of wealth distribution where traders are characterized by quenched random saving propensities and trade among themselves by bipartite transactions, we mimic the enhanced rates of trading of the rich by introducing the preferential selection rule using a pair of continuously tunable parameters. The biparti…
This study investigates self-organizing dynamics in a stochastic exponential DAM model using Temporal Complexity.
We investigate the fundamental principles that drive the development of scalable algorithms for network optimization. Despite the significant amount of work on parallel and decentralized algorithms in the optimization community, the methods that have been proposed typically rely on strict separability assumptions for o…
Many models of market dynamics make use of the idea of conservative wealth exchanges among economic agents. A few years ago an exchange model using extremal dynamics was developed and a very interesting result was obtained: a self-generated minimum wealth or poverty line. On the other hand, the wealth distribution exhi…