arXiv research

The study improves Poincaré and log-Sobolev inequalities on hyperbolic spaces.

Study on learning properties of scale-dependent kernels controlling stability and error.

A new measure of model complexity based on Fisher Information.

Paper addresses theoretical risks in neural MCCFR, proposing Robust Deep MCCFR for improved performance.

The notion of flat minima has played a key role in the generalization studies of deep learning models. However, existing definitions of the flatness are known to be sensitive to the rescaling of parameters. The issue suggests that the previous definitions of the flatness might not be a good measure of generalization, b…

Wavelet scattering spectra model non-Gaussian time-series, proving scale invariance for self-similar processes.

Locally adaptive clustering for tree delineation.

For the purpose of elucidating the correlation among currencies, we analyze daily and high-resolution data of foreign exchange rates. There is strong correlation for pairs of currencies of geographically near countries. We show that there is a time delay of order less than a minute between two currency markets having a…

Analyzed US firm data 1970-2019, identifying scale effects and distributional forms.

In the present work we investigate the multiscale nature of the correlations for high frequency data (1 minute) in different futures markets over a period of two years, starting on the 1st of January 2003 and ending on the 31st of December 2004. In particular, by using the concept of "local" Hurst exponent, we point ou…

Records of the traded value f_i(t) of stocks display fluctuation scaling, a proportionality between the standard deviation sigma(i) and the average <f(i)>: sigma(i) ~ f(i)^alpha, with a strong time scale dependence alpha(dt). The non-trivial (i.e., neither 0.5 nor 1) value of alpha may have different origins and provid…

How can we effectively encode evolving information over dynamic graphs into low-dimensional representations? In this paper, we propose DyRep, an inductive deep representation learning framework that learns a set of functions to efficiently produce low-dimensional node embeddings that evolves over time. The learned embe…

We conclude from an analysis of high resolution NYSE data that the distribution of the traded value $f_i$ (or volume) has a finite variance $σ_i$ for the very large majority of stocks $i$, and the distribution itself is non-universal across stocks. The Hurst exponent of the same time series displays a crossover from we…

The correlation matrix is the key element in optimal portfolio allocation and risk management. In particular, the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix corresponding to large eigenvalues can be used to identify the market mode, sectors and style factors. We investigate how these eigenvalues depend on the time scale of…

We report on a study of the Tehran Price Index (TEPIX) from 2001 to 2006 as an emerging market that has been affected by several political crises during the recent years, and analyze the non-Gaussian probability density function (PDF) of the log returns of the stocks' prices. We show that while the average of the index…

We investigate intra-day foreign exchange (FX) time series using the inverse statistic analysis developed in [1,2]. Specifically, we study the time-averaged distributions of waiting times needed to obtain a certain increase (decrease) $ρ$ in the price of an investment. The analysis is performed for the Deutsch mark (DM…

We study the nature of fluctuations in variety of price indices involving companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The fluctuations at multiple scales are extracted through the use of wavelets belonging to Daubechies basis. The fact that these basis sets satisfy vanishing moments conditions makes them ideal to …

To construct flexible nonlinear predictive distributions, the paper introduces a family of softplus function based regression models that convolve, stack, or combine both operations by convolving countably infinite stacked gamma distributions, whose scales depend on the covariates. Generalizing logistic regression that…

Classic studies of the probability density of price fluctuations $g$ for stocks and foreign exchanges of several highly developed economies have been interpreted using a {\it power-law} probability density function $P(g) \sim g^{-(α+1)}$ with exponent values $α> 2$, which are outside the Lévy-stable regime $0 < α< 2$. …

The statistical properties of the increments x(t+T) - x(t) of a financial time series depend on the time resolution T on which the increments are considered. A non-parametric approach is used to study the scale dependence of the empirical distribution of the price increments x(t+T) - x(t) of S&P Index futures, for time…

This paper investigates the scaling dependencies between measures of "activity" and of "size" for companies included in the FTSE 100. The "size" of companies is measured by the total market capitalization. The "activity" is measured with several quantities related to trades (transaction value per trade, transaction val…

This study applies EMD to MSCI World index and converts IMFs into graphs for GNN modeling.

This paper presents an exclusive classification of the largest crashes in Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), SP500 and NASDAQ in the past century. Crashes are objectively defined as the top-rank filtered drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum disregarding noise fluctuations), where the …

Unified model predicts stock and systemic risks from diverse financial data.

We study partial collapsing degeneration of Hamiltonian-perturbed Floer trajectories for an adiabatic $\varepsilon$-family and its reversal adiabatic gluing, as the prototype of the partial collapsing degeneration of $2$-dimensional (perturbed) $J$-holomorphic maps to $1$-dimensional gradient segments. We consider the …

We present a new method for articulating scale-dependent topological descriptions of the network structure inherent in many complex systems. The technique is based on "Partition Decoupled Null Models,'' a new class of null models that incorporate the interaction of clustered partitions into a random model and generaliz…

In this paper we investigate predictability of electricity prices in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Ontario, as well as in the US Mid-C market. Using scale-dependent detrended fluctuation analysis, spectral analysis, and the probability distribution analysis we show that the studied markets exhibit strongly anti…

Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.

Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.

CViT learns complex physical systems using vision transformer techniques.

Study finds market inefficiencies vary by time scale, with news uncertainty key.

The study optimizes Gaussian process approximations for finite-rank models.

Hypothesis testing in singular models is fundamentally about identifiable vs. non-identifiable parameters.

Rough Transformers improve time series modeling with lower costs and better performance.

HSSE framework embeds single-cell RNA-seq data at multiple scales.

The Fisher information matrix (FIM) plays an essential role in statistics and machine learning as a Riemannian metric tensor or a component of the Hessian matrix of loss functions. Focusing on the FIM and its variants in deep neural networks (DNNs), we reveal their characteristic scale dependence on the network width, …

AutoScale improves LLM pre-training by adjusting data mixtures at different scales.

Deep networks improve by progressively refining approximations at each layer.

Unified framework explains why overfitting is benign in interpolating learning.

Extracts coarse-grained PDEs from microscopic simulations.

Novel approach to learning models based on subjective timescales for better exploration and decision-making.

Introduces a new spectral geometry framework with dissipative data.

The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is one of the best performing methods to quantify the long-term correlations in nonstationary time series. Many long-term correlated time series in real systems contain various trends. We investigate the effects of polynomial trends on the scaling behaviors and the performa…

Algorithm infers sampling distribution from i.i.d. samples without supervision.

New method uses quotient predictor space for better PAC-Bayes bounds, reducing KL divergence and improving model performance.

New learning dynamics achieve fast convergence in games without needing to know utility scales.

New scaling framework for MoE architectures ensures stability and optimal performance at scale.

Kernel-based methods improve policy evaluation in MRP models.