Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.
problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.
In this paper we outline methodology to efficiently simulate (jump) diffusion bridge sample paths without discretisation error. We achieve this by considering the simulation of conditioned (jump) diffusion bridge sample paths in light of recent work developing a mathematical framework for simulating finite dimensional …
Paper proposes method for generating paths of stochastic volatility CGMY process for option pricing.
problem Generating accurate sample paths for stochastic volatility models for option pricing.
method Monte-Carlo method for European and American options, least square regression for calibration.
result Calibrated model parameters to S\&P 100 index options market using path-dependent options.
New algorithms sample from complex path measures using neural networks.
problem Sampling from posterior path measures under a general prior process.
method Combines controlled equilibrium dynamics and optimization in infinite-dimensional probability space.
result The algorithms can be integrated with neural networks for learning target trajectory ensembles.
The paper defines conditions for Gaussian process sample path regularity.
problem Lack of understanding of Gaussian process sample path regularity.
method Analyzes covariance kernels to determine sample path regularity.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for Hölder regularity are provided.
Flow Matching enables robust training of CNFs with various probability paths.
problem Training Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs) at large scales.
method Flow Matching (FM) is a simulation-free approach for training CNFs by regressing vector fields of conditional probability paths.
result Flow Matching with diffusion paths yields more robust and stable training compared to diffusion-based methods.
New methods improve Monte Carlo estimation of partition functions.
problem Estimating the normalization constant of complex distributions.
method Annealing through paths of distributions to estimate partition functions.
result Optimal path for estimation is arithmetic, improving efficiency.
PSLR classifies functional data with scalar covariates using path signatures.
problem Classical functional logistic regression models have limitations in capturing nonlinear and cross-channel dependencies.
method PSLR uses truncated path signatures to create a basis-free representation of functional data.
result PSLR outperforms traditional functional classifiers in accuracy and robustness, especially under non-uniform sampling.
A framework for hypothesis testing on attributed graphs using sampling.
problem Statistical testing on graph data, especially large attributed graphs.
method Sampling-based framework with PHASE and PHASEopt for accurate and efficient hypothesis testing.
result PHASE and PHASEopt improve accuracy and efficiency of hypothesis testing in attributed graphs.
Improved sampling efficiency for molecular systems using path gradients after Flow Matching.
problem Improving sampling efficiency for complex molecular systems.
method Hybrid approach combining Flow Matching and path gradients.
result Up to a threefold increase in sampling efficiency for molecular systems.
New methods use machine learning to simulate rare transitions in molecular systems.
problem Simulating rare transitions between metastable states in molecular dynamics.
method Generative models and reinforcement learning for importance sampling.
result Efficiently generated transition paths linking metastable states.
PS-IG improves feature attribution by reducing noise and variance.
problem Improving feature attribution in machine learning models.
method Path-sampled integrated gradients (PS-IG) computes expected value over sampled baselines.
result PS-IG reduces attribution variance by a factor of 1/3 under uniform sampling.
New modifiers improve noisy RNN replay in hippocampal networks.
problem Improving noisy RNN replay in hippocampal networks.
method Three approaches: hidden state leakage, adaptation, and momentum.
result Hidden state leakage, adaptation, and momentum improve noisy RNN replay.
New analysis of annealing paths in sampling and estimation.
problem Sampling from complex distributions and estimating normalization constants.
method Extending known results on Bregman divergence to quasi-arithmetic means under monotonic embedding.
result Analogous result for quasi-arithmetic means, highlighting the interplay between means, parametric families, and divergence functionals.
This paper optimizes paths for generative models using kinetic energy.
problem Improving generative model performance and sample quality.
method Investigating and optimizing Gaussian probability paths with kinetic energy.
result Kinetic optimal Gaussian paths simplify particle trajectories and improve model performance.
Proposes a new method for sampling from unknown distributions.
problem Challenges in sampling from distributions without direct sampling.
method Uses a dilation path to estimate score vectors in closed-form, guiding Langevin dynamics.
result Demonstrates improved sampling performance compared to classical methods.
New MCMC method improves sampling from multimodal distributions.
problem Sampling from multimodal distributions is challenging for classical MCMC methods.
method Interpolating along the diffusion path, preserving mode weights and mixing properties.
result MAD-Path sampler improves global exploration and mode-weight estimation.
New AI method generates SDE paths without explicit coefficients.
problem Simulating unknown Markovian SDEs with limited data.
method Uses conditional diffusion models on sample paths.
result Consistently outperforms alternative methods in KL divergence.
The paper identifies network bottlenecks using minimax paths in stochastic networks.
problem Identifying bottlenecks in networks with stochastic weights.
method Modeling as combinatorial semi-bandit problem, applying combinatorial Thompson Sampling, and approximating the original objective due to computational intractability.
result Established an upper bound on Bayesian regret and evaluated Thompson Sampling performance on real-world networks.
Proposes PGPS for efficient Bayesian inference.
problem Efficient sampling from complex posterior distributions.
method Path-guided particle-based sampling with Log-weighted Shrinkage.
result PGPS generates samples closer to target distribution.
GIST adapts HMC by tuning parameters based on position and momentum.
problem Locally adaptive sampling in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
method GIST uses Gibbs sampling to adaptively tune HMC parameters.
result GIST improves sampling efficiency for high-dimensional models.
Causal discovery from empirical data is a fundamental problem in many scientific domains. Observational data allows for identifiability only up to Markov equivalence class. In this paper we first propose a polynomial time algorithm for learning the exact correctly-oriented structure of the transitive reduction of any c…
Path signatures adapted for Lie groups improve action recognition in computer vision.
problem Improving action recognition in computer vision with geometric constraints.
method Lifting path signatures to Lie groups and proving universality and characteristic property.
result Path signatures on Lie groups provide comparable performance to shallow learning approaches in action recognition.
This article addresses the problem of approximating the price of options on discrete and continuous arithmetic average of the underlying, i.e. discretely and continuously monitored Asian options, in local volatility models. A path-integral-type expression for option prices is obtained using a Brownian bridge representa…
PDNS tackles multimodal sampling challenges using proximal point method.
problem Multimodal distributions with significant barriers between modes.
method Proximal point method on path measures, decomposing into simpler subproblems.
result PDNS effectively promotes thorough exploration across modes.
We give a proof of the sublinear tracking property for sample paths of random walks on various groups acting on spaces with hyperbolic-like properties. As an application, we prove sublinear tracking in Teichmueller distance for random walks on mapping class groups, and on Cayley graphs of a large class of finitely gene…
Linking SV and PDV models for better volatility forecasts.
problem Improving volatility forecasting models.
method Assumed density filtering to map SV models to PDV representations, introducing calibration procedure.
result Improves in-sample fit and robust out-of-sample forecasts.
EntroPath learns manifold geometry from diffusion paths.
problem Learning geodesic geometry from data graphs with spurious shortcuts.
method Maximum Entropy Path Ensemble Embedding (MERW) with k-step diffusion paths.
result EntroPath converges to squared geodesic distance in the short-time limit.
Differential privacy of Gaussian process posterior sampling
problem Privacy of posterior sample paths from Gaussian process
method Intrinsic randomness yields DP guarantees
result Intrinsic randomness yields DP guarantees
This paper presents the asymptotic behavior of a linear instrumental variables (IV) estimator that uses a ridge regression penalty. The regularization tuning parameter is selected empirically by splitting the observed data into training and test samples. Conditional on the tuning parameter, the training sample creates …
Enhances interpolation paths in latent space using particle filters.
problem Generating meaningful interpolations between data points in latent space.
method Introduces a discriminator network to guide particle filter sampling of interpolation paths.
result Improved variability and stronger drift towards high data density areas.
Estimates path-valued data using signature metrics and local kernels.
problem Nonparametric regression and classification for path-valued data.
method Combines signature transform and local kernel regression.
result Establishes convergence bounds and demonstrates competitive accuracy.
sig-MMD tests compare path distributions using kernel methods.
problem Comparing path distributions in stochastic processes.
method Signature kernel for path space valued distributions.
result sig-MMD can lead to Type 2 errors in limited data settings.
In implicit models, one often interpolates between sampled points in latent space. As we show in this paper, care needs to be taken to match-up the distributional assumptions on code vectors with the geometry of the interpolating paths. Otherwise, typical assumptions about the quality and semantics of in-between points…
New method for sampling from multivariate distributions using optimal control and quantum mechanics.
problem Sampling from continuous multivariate probability distributions efficiently and accurately.
method Harmonic Path Integral Diffusion (H-PID) framework, formulated as a Stochastic Optimal Control problem.
result Efficient sampling algorithms without neural networks, revealing dynamic phase transitions.
Adjoint sampler targets infinite-dimensional function spaces for efficient sampling.
problem Limited theory and algorithms for sampling infinite-dimensional function spaces.
method Adjoint Sampler for infinite-dimensional function spaces based on stochastic maximum principle.
result FAS achieves superior performance in synthetic and real systems.
We consider the problem of path inference: given a path prefix, i.e., a partially observed sequence of nodes in a graph, we want to predict which nodes are in the missing suffix. In particular, we focus on natural paths occurring as a by-product of the interaction of an agent with a network---a driver on the transporta…
A new method reduces Monte Carlo variance for financial payoffs.
problem Reducing variance in Monte Carlo estimators for financial payoffs.
method Path-dependent importance sampling using neural networks.
result Significant variance reduction (2-9 times) for various financial payoffs.
A new slicing method speeds up sliced Wasserstein estimation.
problem Efficiently estimating sliced Wasserstein distance.
method Random-Path Projecting Direction (RPD) for fast sampling.
result RPSW and IWRPSW show favorable performance in training generative models.
We present an embedding of stochastic optimal control problems, of the so called path integral form, into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Using consistent, sample based estimates of the embedding leads to a model free, non-parametric approach for calculation of an approximate solution to the control problem. This fo…
The study identifies volatility models from path geometry using signature-based methods.
problem Identifying different stochastic volatility models from observed data.
method Mapping volatility trajectories into a feature space via truncated path signatures and applying a gradient boosting classifier.
result The method achieves high classification accuracy across various volatility dynamics and parameter settings.
BWFlow improves graph generation by smoothly interpolating graph components.
problem Disjoint modeling of graph nodes and edges leads to irregular and non-smooth probability paths.
method Modeling graphs as MRFs and using optimal transport displacement for a smooth probability path.
result BWFlow achieves better training convergence and efficient sampling in graph generation.
Neural Jump ODEs model Itô processes without adversarial training.
problem Generating samples from Itô processes with irregular data.
method Neural Jump ODEs framework for drift and diffusion approximation.
result NJODEs can recover true parameters of Itô processes in the limit.
Introduces q-paths for generalizing geometric annealing paths in machine learning.
problem Limited applicability of existing path methods in machine learning.
method Develops a family of paths derived from a generalized mean, including geometric and arithmetic mixtures.
result Empirical gains in Bayesian inference and generative model evaluation.
This work derives closed-form expressions computing the expectation of co-presence and of number of co-occurrences of nodes on paths sampled from a network according to general path weights (a bag of paths). The underlying idea is that two nodes are considered as similar when they often appear together on (preferably s…
This study examines biases in flow matching samplers using finite-sample estimation.
problem Biases in flow matching samplers when using finite-sample surrogates.
method Finite-sample plug-in estimation and hierarchy of empirical FM models.
result Exact empirical minimizer and smoothed plug-in regime identified for affine conditional flows.
Control Contraction Metrics (CCMs) provide a nonlinear controller design involving an offline search for a Riemannian metric and an online search for a shortest path between the current and desired trajectories. In this paper, we generalize CCMs to Finsler geometry, allowing the use of non-Riemannian metrics. We provid…
AdaPID optimizes diffusion-based samplers by dynamically adjusting schedules.
problem Optimizing the intermediate-time dynamics in diffusion-based samplers.
method Develops a time-varying stiffness schedule using Piece-Wise-Constant (PWC) parametrizations and a hierarchical refinement approach.
result QoS-driven PWC schedules consistently improve sampling fidelity and accuracy.