Deep learning detects novel changes in time series data.
problem Detecting novel changes in time series with unknown probability structures.
method Causally extracts an innovations sequence for novelty detection.
result Minimax optimality established for the novelty detection method.
Proposes CE-BASS for robust Kalman filtering with innovative and additive outliers.
problem Robustness to both innovative and additive outliers in Kalman filtering.
method Particle mixture Kalman filter with re-sampling of past states.
result CE-BASS efficiently handles multi-modality and trend changes in hidden state distributions.
This study revisits Fama-French models using sample innovations to address misinterpretation of high R-squared values.
problem Misinterpretation of high R-squared values in Fama-French models due to serial dependence and volatility clustering.
method Use of sample innovations to derive standard econometrics time series models to overcome misinterpretation.
result Suggests the Fama-French model should consider heavy-tail distributions due to relevant tail behavior in financial data.
Study finds short-term instability in financial ARCH models.
problem Short-term stability of financial ARCH models.
method Analyzes quadratic ARCH processes using historical data and empirical innovations.
result Empirical innovations have variance significantly above 1, indicating short-term instability.
The paper optimizes portfolios using a new GARCH model with regime switching and tempered stable innovations.
problem Mitigating left tail risk in multi-asset portfolios.
method Proposes a Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation (MRS-MNTS-GARCH) for portfolio optimization.
result Optimal portfolios with tail risk measures outperform standard deviation-based portfolios and equally weighted portfolios in various performance metrics.
Generative models learn rules at different timescales, revealing a 'innovation window'.
problem Generative models' convergence to empirical training distribution rather than population distribution.
method Rule-valid synthetic tasks, analyzing τrule and τmem across training timescales. result The 'innovation window' widens with increasing dataset size and narrows with rule complexity.
Paper introduces TS-GPT for engineering time series forecasting.
problem Engineering time series require causal operations, unlike linguistic data.
method Innovations representation theory, Generative Pre-trained Transformer.
result TS-GPT effectively forecasts real-time locational marginal prices.
Kriging is an efficient machine-learning tool, which allows to obtain an approximate response of an investigated phenomenon on the whole parametric space. Adaptive schemes provide a the ability to guide the experiment yielding new sample point positions to enrich the metamodel. Herein a novel adaptive scheme called Mon…
A new robust PCA method uses Innovation Search and Leverage Scores.
problem Outlier detection and robust PCA in data clustering.
method Innovation Search and Leverage Scores.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees and outperforms existing algorithms.
This paper examines the time series properties of cryptocurrency assets, such as Bitcoin, using established econometric inference techniques, namely models of the GARCH family. The contribution of this study is twofold. I explore the time series properties of cryptocurrencies, a new type of financial asset on which the…
IAE extracts innovations sequences for non-Gaussian processes.
problem Extracting innovations sequences for non-Gaussian processes.
method Causal convolutional neural network.
result IAE effectively detects anomalies in non-Gaussian data.
New framework IIA identifies innovations in general nonlinear vector autoregressive processes.
problem Limited generality of NVAR models due to additive innovation assumption.
method Independent Innovation Analysis (IIA) framework, assuming mutual independence and modulation by an auxiliary variable.
result Guarantees identifiability of innovations with arbitrary nonlinearities, up to permutation and component-wise invertible nonlinearities.
For long time the measurement of innovation has been in the forefront of policy makers' and researchers' agenda worldwide. Therefore, there is an ongoing debate about which indicators should be used to measure innovation. Recent approaches have favoured the use of composite innovation indicators. However, there is no c…
iSearch uses innovation directions for robust PCA and outlier detection.
problem Robust PCA and outlier detection in data with outliers.
method iSearch uses innovation directions to compute optimal data points and identify outliers.
result iSearch provides robust PCA and outlier detection with performance guarantees.
Machine learning models predict which ideas will be innovated based on subjective perspectives.
problem Predicting high-impact innovation based on subjective perspectives and interpersonal innovation opportunities.
method Quantifying subjective perspectives and their interaction based on innovator positions within a geometric space of concepts.
result Subjective perspectives predict which ideas individuals and groups will creatively attend to and successfully combine in the future.
The present research aims to highlight the main factors influencing the development of entrepreneurial innovation in a rural environment and to perform an empirical study with the purpose of assessing the main problems in rural development. The research performed is mostly of a quantitative nature, being based on the u…
The study examines robustness auditing for linear regression, improving existing methods and identifying computational challenges.
problem Detecting small subsets of data that can reverse regression coefficients.
method Empirical study of mixed integer quadratically constrained optimization and exact greedy methods, combined with a spectral algorithm.
result Existing methods largely outperform state of the art, but computational bottlenecks remain, especially for higher dimensions.
Margin trading and short selling boost green tech innovation in China.
problem Encouraging green technology innovation in Chinese companies.
method Quasi-experimental research using panel data of Chinese listed companies, double difference model.
result Margin trading and short selling increase green tech innovation significantly.
Innovation is among the key factors driving a country's economic and social growth. But what are the factors that make a country innovative? How do they differ across different parts of the world and different stages of development? In this work done in collaboration with the World Economic Forum (WEF), we analyze the …
Nanotechnology is the first major worldwide research initiative of the 21st century and probably is the solution vector in the economic environment. Also, innovation is widely recognized as a key factor in the economic development of nations, and is essential for the competitiveness of the industrial firms as well. Pol…
The analysis of the theoretical material revealed the lack of consensus on defini-tion of the tax stimulation of innovation-active business entities within the re-gional taxation. The definition tax stimulation of innovation-active business en-tities is specified.
Study a dual risk model with innovation delays, focusing on ruin probability and time.
problem Analyzing risk models with innovation delays affecting ruin probability and time.
method Delayed dual risk model with innovation delays, focusing on ruin probability and time.
result Closed-form formulas for ruin probability and time in some special cases.
Study LASSO for high-dimensional VAR models with weakly dependent innovations.
problem Understanding sparse regularization in high-dimensional VAR models with weakly dependent innovations.
method LASSO estimation for weakly sparse VAR models with heavy tailed innovations, under L1 mixingale condition. result Oracle properties of LASSO estimation in high-dimensional VAR models with weakly dependent innovations.
Develops inequalities for high-dimensional linear processes with dependent innovations.
problem Estimating high-dimensional VAR(p) systems and HAC covariance estimation.
method Concentration inequalities for l∞ norm of vector linear processes with sub-Weibull, mixingale innovations. result Obtained concentration bounds for the maximum entrywise norm of lag-h autocovariance matrices. We consider a network of interacting agents and we model the process of choice on the adoption of a given innovative product by means of statistical-mechanics tools. The modelization allows us to focus on the effects of direct interactions among agents in establishing the success or failure of the product itself. Mimic…
The paper explores how innovative financing solutions boost Moroccan businesses' performance.
problem Market volatility, ecological transitions, and technological change pose challenges to business sustainability.
method Examines innovative financing solutions like venture capital, green finance, crowdfunding, and blockchain.
result Embracing innovative financial strategies can transform business challenges into opportunities.
Study analyzes climate-tech investments across 14 sectors.
problem Accelerating climate-tech innovation in nascent value chains.
method Analysis of 4,172 firms and 12,929 investments over 15 years.
result Only 15% of firms develop end products, 59% support them, and 26% develop services.
Innovation is to organizations what evolution is to organisms: it is how organisations adapt to changes in the environment and improve. Governments, institutions and firms that innovate are more likely to prosper and stand the test of time; those that fail to do so fall behind their competitors and succumb to market an…
Study reveals similarities in knowledge flows between pharmaceutical and AI industries.
problem Understanding the dynamics of drug pipelines in global pharmaceutical industry.
method Multilayer network analysis of drug pipeline, global supply chain, and ownership data.
result Proven similarities in knowledge flows between pharmaceutical and AI industries.
Prior work finds a diversity paradox: diversity breeds innovation, and yet, underrepresented groups that diversify organizations have less successful careers within them. Does the diversity paradox hold for scientists as well? We study this by utilizing a near-population of ~1.2 million US doctoral recipients from 1977…
LatentFlow simplifies conditioning of stochastic processes without training.
problem Intractable conditional laws for complex stochastic models.
method Writing stochastic process as latent innovation, reducing conditioning to latent-space inference.
result Exact conditional sampling across various model classes.
Green startups in Italy survive longer than non-green ones.
problem Survival of innovative startups in Italy.
method Comparative analysis of green vs. non-green startups in Italy, 2009-2018.
result Green startups are more than twice as likely to survive than non-green ones.
Tool uses text mining to define innovative tech fields from abstracts.
problem Defining scope in dynamic, multidisciplinary tech projects.
method Text mining of Elsevier's Scopus abstracts.
result Tool provides crucial information for tech field definition.
Research shows eco-innovation boosts earnings management, especially in constrained firms.
problem The impact of eco-innovation on earnings management in firms with financial constraints.
method Multi-method approach including entropy balancing, PSM, and Heckman Test correction.
result Eco-innovation positively correlates with earnings management, especially in firms facing financial constraints.
DiGS improves sampling from multi-modal distributions.
problem Inadequate mixing in MCMC methods for multi-modal distributions.
method Integrates diffusion models and Gibbs sampling to create an auxiliary noisy distribution.
result DiGS exhibits better mixing for multi-modal distributions than state-of-the-art methods.
Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning have achieved human-level performance on a variety of real-world applications. However, the current algorithms still suffer from poor gradient estimation with excessive variance, resulting in unstable training and poor sample efficiency. In our paper, we proposed an innova…
The sampling efficiency of MCMC methods in Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility (SV) models is known to highly depend on the actual parameter values, and the effectiveness of samplers based on different parameterizations varies significantly. We derive novel algorithms for the centered and the non-centered para…
LFIS uses a time-dependent velocity field to sample from complex distributions.
problem Sampling from unnormalized density functions.
method LFIS learns a time-dependent velocity field to transport samples from a simple initial distribution to a complex target distribution.
result LFIS achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark problems.
This paper analyzes the connection between innovation activities of companies -- implemented before crisis -- and their performance -- measured at time of crisis. The companies listed in the STAR Market Segment of the Italian Stock Exchange are analyzed. Innovation is measured through the level of investments in total …
Deep RL optimizes dynamic portfolio weights in China's stock market.
problem Traditional portfolio optimization methods struggle with dynamic asset weight adjustments.
method Developed a deep reinforcement learning framework with novel reward functions and random sampling.
result Model outperforms traditional methods in portfolio optimization and risk mitigation.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been proven to have many redundancies. Hence, many efforts have been made to compress DNNs. However, the existing model compression methods treat all the input samples equally while ignoring the fact that the difficulties of various input samples being correctly classified are different…
NoLBERT avoids lookback and lookahead biases for better econometric inference.
problem Information leakage in language models affects econometric inference.
method Pretrained on text from 1976-1995, avoiding lookback and lookahead biases.
result NoLBERT outperforms domain-specific baselines and predicts higher profit growth.
We consider the problem of stochastic comparison of general Garch-like processes, for different parameters and different distributions of the innovations. We identify several stochastic orders that are propagated from the innovations to the Garch process itself, and discuss their interpretations. We focus on the convex…
A new method for sampling complex posterior distributions in DDMs.
problem Challenging posterior distributions in DDMs.
method Divide-and-Conquer Posterior Sampling (DCPS)
result Significantly reduces approximation error without retraining.
Achieving faster execution with shorter compilation time can enable further diversity and innovation in neural networks. However, the current paradigm of executing neural networks either relies on hand-optimized libraries, traditional compilation heuristics, or very recently, simulated annealing and genetic algorithms.…
Improved training of GRBMs for image generation.
problem Training Gaussian-Bernoulli RBMs efficiently and effectively.
method Introduces a novel Gibbs-Langevin sampling algorithm and a modified contrastive divergence (CD) algorithm.
result Demonstrates robust training of GRBMs with large learning rates, removing the need for tricks.
Regulating crypto and DeFi for inclusive economic advancement.
problem Innovative financial systems pose challenges to traditional regulatory frameworks.
method Formulating regulatory structures that balance innovation and consumer protection.
result Regulatory frameworks are essential for leveraging crypto and DeFi for inclusive economic growth.
This paper analyzes MaskGIT sampler and introduces a moment sampler for faster masked diffusion sampling.
problem Efficiently sampling from masked diffusion models.
method Theoretical analysis of MaskGIT sampler, introduction of moment sampler, and two innovations for improving choose-then-sample efficiency.
result The moment sampler is an asymptotically equivalent, more interpretable alternative to MaskGIT.