A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A model explains why 4% is a safe retirement withdrawal rate.
The paper analyzes GMWB annuities in low interest rate environments.
Proposes GLWB-LTC for enhanced life care annuities with dynamic withdrawal strategies and stochastic interest rates.
Investigates optimal withdrawal strategies in VA contracts with tax and ratchet mechanisms.
This paper presents numerical algorithm and results for pricing a capital protection option offered by many asset managers for investment portfolios to take advantage of market growth and protect savings. Under optimal withdrawal policyholder behaviour the pricing of such a product is an optimal stochastic control prob…
Develops a new method for pricing GMWBs with jumps and stochastic interest rates.
A variable annuity contract with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) promises to return the entire initial investment through cash withdrawals during the contract plus the remaining account balance at maturity, regardless of the portfolio performance. Under the optimal(dynamic) withdrawal strategy of a policyh…
Valuing Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) has attracted significant attention from both the academic field and real world financial markets. As remarked by Yang and Dai, the Black and Scholes framework seems to be inappropriate for such a long maturity products. Also Chen Vetzal and Forsyth in showed that th…
Valuing Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) has attracted significant attention from both the academic field and real world financial markets. As remarked by Forsyth and Vetzal the Black and Scholes framework seems to be inappropriate for such long maturity products. They propose to use a regime switching mod…
Optimal withdrawal strategy for DC pension plans maximizes total withdrawals while managing risk.
Upper bound on withdrawal success for geometric Levy alpha-stable wealth process.
Withdrawal guarantees ensure the periodical deduction of a constant dollar-amount from a fund investment for a fixed number of periods. If the fund depletes before the last withdrawal, the guarantor has to finance the outstanding withdrawals. We derive a robust hedging strategy which leads to closed form solutions for …
Maximizing withdrawal success in a pooled annuity fund with multiple annuitants.
Project forecasts liquidity withdrawal using machine learning models.
Safe learning of stochastic dynamics with safety constraints.
The paper develops a valuation framework for GLWB-LTC contracts with Levy dynamics and stochastic interest rates.
Optimal tontine strategy maximizes withdrawals while minimizing shortfall.
The Australian Government uses the means-test as a way of managing the pension budget. Changes in Age Pension policy impose difficulties in retirement modelling due to policy risk, but any major changes tend to be `grandfathered' meaning that current retirees are exempt from the new changes. In 2015, two important chan…
Optimizes retirement spending and asset allocation to maximize withdrawals and shortfall.
Modeling taxation of Variable Annuities has been frequently neglected but accounting for it can significantly improve the explanation of the withdrawal dynamics and lead to a better modeling of the financial cost of these insurance products. The importance of including a model for taxation has first been observed by Mo…
Paper presents deep LSMC method for efficient variable annuity pricing.
A variable annuity contract with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) promises to return the entire initial investment through cash withdrawals during the policy life plus the remaining account balance at maturity, regardless of the portfolio performance. Under the optimal withdrawal strategy of a policyholder,…
The paper models ATM cash withdrawal chaos and forecasts using deep learning.
Maximizes probability of completing investment schedules with optimal portfolio weights.
The purpose of this study was to build a customer selection model based on 20 dimensions, including customer codes, total contribution, assets, deposit, profit, profit rate, trading volume, trading amount, turnover rate, order amount, withdraw amount, withdraw rate, process fee, process fee submitted, process fee retai…
A large collection of financial contracts offering guaranteed minimum benefits are often posed as control problems, in which at any point in the solution domain, a control is able to take any one of an uncountable number of values from the admissible set. Often, such contracts specify that the holder exert control at a…
In this paper we investigate price and Greeks computation of a Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) Variable Annuity (VA) when both stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate are considered together in the Heston Hull-White model. We consider a numerical method the solves the dynamic control problem due…
A method for safe online classification reduces test costs while maintaining low error rates.
Under the optimal withdrawal strategy of a policyholder, the pricing of variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) is an optimal stochastic control problem. The surrender feature available in marketed products allows termination of the contract before maturity, making it also an optimal stoppi…
Improves policies with high certainty, even in small samples.
A new distributed method speeds up sparse model training.
World wide road traffic fatality and accident rates are high, and this is true even in technologically advanced countries like the USA. Despite the advances in Intelligent Transportation Systems, safe transportation routing i.e., finding safest routes is largely an overlooked paradigm. In recent years, large amount of …
Existence of stochastic financial equilibria giving rise to semimartingale asset prices is established under a general class of assumptions. These equilibria are expressed in real terms and span complete markets or markets with withdrawal constraints.We deal with random endowment density streams which admit jumps and g…
Retirees who exhaust their savings while still alive are said to experience financial ruin. These savings are typically grown during the accumulation phase then spent during the retirement decumulation phase. Extensive research into invest-and-harvest decumulation strategies has been conducted, but recommendations diff…
this is a duplicate submission(original is arXiv:1612.02141). Hence want to withdraw it
Optimal and safe semi-supervised learning estimator for high-dimensional data.
Safe screening improves generalized CGM's feature selection stability.
Tail-Safe hedging uses reinforcement learning with a safety layer to manage financial risks.
Safe RL in linear systems achieves -regret.
There is a technical issue in the analysis that is not easily fixable. We, therefore, withdraw the submission. Sorry for the inconvenience.
The paper tackles safe exploration in RL by a conservative safety critic.
Several proposals for the reform of the euro area advocate the creation of a market in synthetic securities backed by portfolios of sovereign bonds. Most debated are the so-called European Safe Bonds or ESBies proposed by Brunnermeier, Langfield, Pagano,Reis, Van Nieuwerburgh and Vayanos (2017). The potential benefits …
Aims to create safe reinforcement learning policies by considering individual harm.
We generalize the classic Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) used for prediction of future total returns of the stock market. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. The difference between log wealth and log earnings is modeled as an autoregression of order 1 with linear trend 4.6% and Gaussian inno…
The guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) rider, as an add on to a variable annuity (VA), guarantees the return of premiums in the form of peri- odic withdrawals while allowing policyholders to participate fully in any market gains. GMWB riders represent an embedded option on the account value with a fee structu…
Framework uses human feedback to safely set OOD detection thresholds, reducing false positives.
Bayesian optimization is known to be difficult to scale to high dimensions, because the acquisition step requires solving a non-convex optimization problem in the same search space. In order to scale the method and keep its benefits, we propose an algorithm (LineBO) that restricts the problem to a sequence of iterative…
We introduce the safe linear stochastic bandit framework---a generalization of linear stochastic bandits---where, in each stage, the learner is required to select an arm with an expected reward that is no less than a predetermined (safe) threshold with high probability. We assume that the learner initially has knowledg…